Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

zambonir 2022-01-03 19:30:42 UTC #1024

Always good to see you post Matt! I think the negativity Andy & I have about him was as much in response to people upthread who are ready to make him a 100+ game player in CF (or LF) this year. Would you consider that? Heck, does he even make the roster given Girardi's seeming preference for veterans? Not sure Torreyes and Jankowski (platoon bat aside) were really that much better than Maton or Vierling.

Matt_Winkelman 2022-01-03 19:52:14 UTC #1025

I think 100+ games across CF/LF and some RF if there is a DH is probably about where I would pencil him in on a roster right now. I think the Phillies like him and like him more than the other OF (Moniak and Haseley are also probably behind Muzziotti at this point on the depth chart as well as prospect wise) so I think he makes the team unless he sucks in Spring Training. But back to the larger point, lets say they sign Schwarber and trade for Kiermaier, you know KK isn't going to play all 162 and the Phillies are likely to use the DH on rotating rest so you would expect Schwarber, Harper, and Hoskins at least in this scenario to get a lot of time there, so you then have Vierling as your "plays the position the DH normally plays", OF injury backup, and LF defensive replacement. That looks like 100 games and like 400+ PAs to me.

Also on the roster front, they need some of the Maton, Vierling, Moniak, Haseley, Muzziotti, Williams group to make the opening day roster to make the 40 man work. I expect they may try to trade some of them, but they need 2 of them to make the opening day 26.

andyb 2022-01-03 20:24:34 UTC #1026

I was more just pointing out that Vierling really should not be considered ahead of Moniak based on what they did last year. We are just putting too much weight on a very small sample size. I actually like Vierling as a guy that can potentially make the roster. Decent defensively in the OF (more corner than CF), versatile, good exit velocity, decent athlete, etc. Compared to Moniak he has a better idea of the strike zone now, though Moniak has shown more power and is probably a bit better defensively in CF.

Vierling is helped by being right-handed in that quest to win a 5th OF spot where much of the competition is left-handed. I just don't see much to put him above Moniak and Haseley (whose personal issues are very different). We should have a younger bench because of guys like these, but it is really only because our AAAA players are younger and internal rather than 29 year old minor league free agents. That is good. They are fine as backups though part of the equation there is saying we don't think playing every day in AAA will help them that much any more.

EDmuch 2022-01-03 21:45:57 UTC #1027

For goodness sake, Daffy Duck should be considered of Moniak. Moniak has never been much of antythnig. WE drafted him because, in a bad draft class, he came cheap. He was a smallish player with no power who has turned into a smallish player with little power who also strikes out 30% of the time. The only way Moniak makes it as a major league player is if we trade him to Tampa and they dunk him into the miracle waters they have hidden southeast of Tampa.

andyb 2022-01-03 21:50:27 UTC #1028

Moniak slugged .447 at Lehigh Valley last year while Verling slugged .359. I guess you are saying Vierling isn't much of anything either. I never said Moniak was a good prospect. There just is not much to suggest Vierling is any better.

Matt_Winkelman 2022-01-03 22:12:53 UTC #1029

There is a lot to suggest it, and that comes from talking people both inside and outside the org. Vierling's swing is much better, his approach and contact abilities are way better. I would also say that Vierling has been trending up in terms of making improvements and Moniak has been stagnating for a few years now in key areas like pitch recognition and approach.

zambonir 2022-01-03 22:28:44 UTC #1030

So basically we want Vierling to be what Scott Kingery never became (or only briefly did, in 2019).

andyb 2022-01-03 22:38:52 UTC #1031

Do we have minor league exit velocity data? Hard to believe Vierling was very good in AAA with a BABIP of .291. Then it jumped to .420 in his small major league sample where we know he hit the ball hard. Vierling also had a mediocre BB/K ratio in the majors which can be typical of a young player who is relatively aggressive when the league does not have a book on him.

I am not knocking Vierling. I just think everyone is biased by the small sample size. And compared to Moniak the expectations of a top pick. Moniak did not exactly stagnate other than the lost year where everybody stagnated. He improved in AAA relative to AA and he is still over a year younger than Vierling. I think it is 50-50 he contributes more than Vierling this year and probably 60-40 he is better in his career.

allentown 2022-01-03 22:45:00 UTC #1032

I put Kingery at the head of that list. Big work, big reward -- and we are paying him quite well, regardless, so might as well devote a lot of coaching resources to getting him back as close as possible to the player we thought he was, when the team gave him big (well, at least medium) $, when he hadn't played in Philly yet.

Kingery and everyone else you mention will be hurt if the lockout seriously shortens ST. Already hurt by the ban on working with Phillies trainers and instructors this off-season. The lockout likely leads to more of the older AAAA guys and marginal guys with MLB service being plucked from the scrap heap to start the year on MLB rosters.

Andyb: Vierling may not be ahead of Moniak in terms of the career he may have; he certainly is far ahead of Moniak in terms of being able to contribute to the MLB Phillies during at least the first half of 2022, and I think probably the second half as well.

zambonir 2022-01-03 23:07:22 UTC #1033

Kingery is not on Matt's list because him making the opening day roster doesn't help "make the 40-man work."

I think a delayed spring training helps Kingery. A shortened one does not. And much like with Herrera last year (albeit without the baggage), if roster space gets tight Williams or Maton may beat him out just because they can keep him stashed, especially when there is no reason to rush him. He was sent to AAA to get regular meaningful ABs. He still hasn't gotten 'em.

For better or worse he probably wasn't planning to report to Clearwater in the off-season anyway, he usually works out in Arizona.

Question is, does the lockout apply to him? He's not on the 40 and didn't finish the season on the 40, but he is on a guaranteed major league contract. In theory he might be able to report to minor league spring training.

Austinfan 2022-01-04 00:33:56 UTC #1034

I think people are jumping to too firm of conclusions off play the past two minor league seasons.

This has been a weird situation, combined with chaos in the organization, it won't surprise me at all if someone like Moniak makes a big jump - he's filled out, he showed the eye to hand coordination when he was younger to make contact, sometimes it just takes the right coach and a couple months to work on things to turn it around. Which is what happened with Vierling, he reworked his swing and took a big jump.

This is a really good off season to buy low and a bad one to sell low b/c of these factors.

Aquapong 2022-01-04 14:11:56 UTC #1035

Maybe Moniak does break out. But his track record thus far hasn’t been encouraging. Vierling is the opposite. He hit his stride in Reading and hopefully we found a solid platoon/bench player.

It’s nice to see someone else on MLBTR espousing the idea I had about sending Suarez back to the pen and bringing in another starter. At the time I was looking for Jon Gray. With the remaining names in the starter market, I’m not sure I would do that anymore though.

andyb 2022-01-04 14:22:14 UTC #1036

That is an interesting theory on Suarez. I wonder if we need another starter anyway. We are still in COVID times. Eflin may not be ready to begin the year. Somebody will get hurt also.

Suarez has clearly developed enough of a starter's repertoire to get both right and left-handed hitters out. While he has never pitched major innings, I also don't think there is any particular reason to doubt he can. He is economical with his pitches and seems to have grown into his middle velocity without too much effort in his delivery. I think he will settle back to earth in a long exposure (i.e. 3.50-4.00 ERA), but I also think that is pretty good over 185 innings as opposed to a 2.50 ERA in the bullpen over 65 innings.

At the moment I think he is better than Gibson and more reliable than Nola or Eflin. Just because he is the one that has shown the ability to relieve does not mean he should. Maybe starting him won't work in the long run, but I think it is a worthy thing to try. We are going to need a 6th and 7th starter anyway. Let's get more innings out of Suarez because that will be important IMO.

bigegypt0417 2022-01-04 14:46:51 UTC #1037

Moniak has become your new JP Crawford.

zambonir 2022-01-04 17:54:39 UTC #1038

We can only hope Moniak becomes JP Crawford!

I don't see how the Phillies can afford to move Suarez to the bullpen. They would then have to spend $8 million or more on another starter. Easier to just spend $3-4 million on another reliever. Yeah, you have to get it right, but you don't truly know what you'd get out of Suarez either, including from converting him yet again (and he prefers to start, IIRC).

bigegypt0417 2022-01-04 18:39:51 UTC #1039

We'd all be happy if he did turn in to Crawford.

I don't see any reason that you move Suarez out of the rotation at this point.

allentown 2022-01-04 19:47:01 UTC #1040

Moniak has a chance. His power has increased. An ISO of .209 at Allentown shows the significant uptrend and isn't bad. For a guy Gillick loved for his high-contact swing, he has always K'ed a lot, but his walk rate isn't bad. Moniak is yet another victim of the Phillies' tendency to try to develop their prospects into the player they think they need, rather than the best possible version of the actual prospect. The Phillies sought more power than was possible for Moniak's build and messed up his swing. That ought to be fixable. He also needs better pitch recognition and better jumps on fly balls, at least as a CF. When those are fixable?

This is Kingery's age 28 season. Probably his last serious chance, at least as a Phillie. I remember him from his half year at Reading. He looked like a star in the making and his stats there, at age 23, backed up my visual assessment. Even the prior season, when his stats weren't all that good, he looked like a guy with an MLB future.

zambonir 2022-01-04 20:32:04 UTC #1041

That is wild. It looked like a very fair - even team-friendly - contract at the time. Market-rate for a peak age everyday player (whether at one position or many).

If he could actually turn it around and win a starting job in 2023 even his option isn't so bad (13-14-15 from 2024-2026).

Still wonder how much COVID actually affected him, or might still be. Also wondering how many of our players are going to get it this month (and how many have become boosted, or even vaxxed for the first time).

allentown 2022-01-04 20:56:00 UTC #1042

I think it affected him a ton. Prior to Covid, his 2019 season in Philly was quite respectable -- not a star, but not given his best position to play and a very decent OPS. He posted +2,6 rWAR and a positive dWAR, despite shuffling between 5 positions. After Covid, his performance just collapsed. He definitely could rebound this season. It takes some quite a long time to come back from Covid.

andyb 2022-01-04 21:05:20 UTC #1043

Kingery also only needs to be a 1 WAR player the next 2 years to be worth his contract. He could actually do that and still be a huge disappointment.

I have no idea how much COVID affected him. Not having a position also hurt him though to be fair, it is possibly positional versatility that gets him back in the majors. There is really no reason a player with his skills should not be a better bench player the next 2 years than Ronald Torreyes was for this team.

Clearly the initial mistake with him was rushing him through AAA when he had not learned the strike zone largely based on a hot Spring Training when hindsight tells us those performances were pretty meaningless. The move to full time SS was also misguided and perhaps was a move designed to push JP Crawford (and it backfired on both as Crawford did not take well to the utility role and never got the chance he deserved at SS with the Phillies before he was traded).

Last year was about a serious shoulder injury too. Torn Labrum which might mean he is not ready to play at Spring Training anyway. I wonder if he has been able to workout in Clearwater this offseason since he was removed from the 40-man roster. No idea what he is these days, but we could probably do worse for one of our bench players.