Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[zambonir]

I think COVID affected him a ton in 2020; the question is how much did it further set him back - physically, mentally - in 2021, and is it still affecting him (physically or mentally).

But there were also a lot of red flags about him in 2019. Not so red that you thought he was going to be out of the major leagues entirely, and not so different from Hoskins in 2019 for that matter. But in the second half he had just an 81 tOPS+ and it was actually 59 in July and 57 in September. When he was good (including in August) he had crazy-high BABIP (and still .337 overall for the year).

And then the other question is what changes did he make with the private swing coach, and what changes are now being unmade? Apparently (as Matt's post mentioned) the guys who were supposed to help him do that last year were not up to the job, so it would certainly be nice if he became one of Long's projects (especially if they are allowed to work together during the lockout unlike Bohm and Vierling. I doubt Kingery has been anywhere near Florida yet, but he could report soon if he's allowed).

[flyers19rw]

What scares me about Kingery is that his second half of ‘19 was such a disaster. He started to slip then and hasn’t yet broken the downward spiral. On retrospect, it might have been best for him to settle in at one position and then begin to move him around the field if he could handle that. It wasn’t the case though as management at that time wanted him to be a multi-positional player.
Here’s hoping that he can pull a Vierling. Get away from the people that have messed up his game and do an independent rebuild. He the has skills to do that.

[allentown]

What scares me about Kingery is that his second half of ‘19 was such a disaster.

Inconsistency. Not uncommon to rookies. Same true of Bohm and Hoskins. You have to hope they can and allow them to try to move beyond it. Without the younger players coming through, there really isn't going to be a trip to WS anytime soon. You can't build a team of all proven vets. Half the roster is going to be guys we have little idea what we will get from them in 2022. That's the price of being able to afford a handful of stars and may allow us to add another to lineup in 2022.

[zambonir]

But Kingery was a second-year player in 2019. So sure, hope it was a sophomore slump and pretend Years 3 and 4 didn't happen. Except now, as you say, he's 28. (or will be). That's older than Franco, Brown and Asche all were by the time their Phillies' careers ended (Franco is at least still playing, but obviously Kingery would have been non-tendered himself if he'd been year-to-year).

Between his talent and his salary he's certainly going to get his chances, but with the GM and scouting director who brought him into the organization all gone, and a manager who can probably take or leave him, there's little political will to get him back on the 40-man quickly. I think the Phillies are probably much better off making him the everyday 2B in Allentown for 3 months than throwing him right back into a part-time, multi-position major league role - which I doubt he can earn in spring training anyway. Not sure he's even cleared for baseball activity yet.

It would be great if he gets it together and could help mid-season, and/or rebuild some trade value, and/or make it possible to trade Segura (assuming Segura doesn't drop off). Best possible case he still starts for the Phillies in 2023, maybe even beyond (assuming Stott isn't at 2B). Worst-case he gets dumped into a trade for someone else's sunk cost.

[bkeich]

I think for 40 man reasons there is no chance Kingery is in Philly until half way through the season. He would cost us someone we probably want to keep

[zambonir]

If he can play, they'll find a way. There's always a spare reliever, or that starting pitcher you're gonna end up DFAing in July anyway. Or someone on the 60-day DL. I just doubt he'll be able to play well enough to force the issue and win a big enough role while also beating out the guys on the 40 (or even some minor league FA vet that they inevitable sign) to be on the 26.

His best path to playing time would be #2 CF and #2 SS but Vierling seems to be pencilled in as the former and Kingery's only played 2/3 of an inning at SS since 2019.

[julio]

Scott Kingery is a second baseman. He’s not a shortstop, and he’s not a center fielder. If his “best path to playing time” is as a backup at two positions he’s not particularly good at, he has no real path to playing time. Moreover, there is no reason to expect that he can thrive (or survive) offensively if he’s only used sporadically.

Kingery is not on the 40-man roster, and that’s the best place for him. He needs to be in AAA, and he needs to be playing 2B - not being bounced around the field in a pointless effort to turn him into some kind of super sub that he simply is not, and will not be.

This organization has a history (regardless of changing personnel - coaches, managers, GMs) of trying to “make” players into whatever somebody decides the club needs, or deludes themselves into believing a player “can be” - at the expense of what the player actually is. I mean, I expect this kind of delusional thinking from fans (Pat Burrel is a natural third basemen!!!); but as an organizational philosophy, it rarely works, and it destroys careers.

[bkox]

I agree with everything you said.. Kingery should stay at 2nd base. Would be cool if the 2023 Phils infield could be Hoskins-Kingery-Stott-Bohm. Very cheap too.

But.. Why have the Dodgers been so good at getting players to be successful at multiple positions? Muncy plays 1B, 2B, and 3B. Bellinger, 1B, CF, RF. Chris Taylor plays everywhere, Gavin Lux plays everywhere, Max Beaty plays everywhere. Austin Barnes is a catcher who also plays 2B. Kike Hernandez, played all positions in the 2 years before he left and in 2019 appeared in 10+ games at 5 different positions. This has seemed to be true of the Dodgers for several years now and some point it to being part of their success.. That they constantly have parts to move around when injuries occur.

[zambonir]

Yeah, I have never bought into the idea that Kingery couldn't turn into another Taylor or Merrifield or Ben Zobrist, just as easily as an everyday 2B. He just... didn't.

How much of that was him and how much of that was the Phillies, who knows. It is an organizational philosophy practiced by some good organizations (or at least by Andrew Friedman). I don't think that the Phillies' history with Burrell or Utley (or ugh, Cody Asche) means it wasn't worth a try by the new regime. And I think great prospects who are blocked at their minor league position adjust to position changes all the time.

When Kingery's bat is going he's still no better or worse as a super sub than as a 2B, and possibly better (more defensive value from a good but not elite offensive player. He is not actually bad at this other positions). He's just not good enough to get 400 ABs in that role this year, until he shows otherwise, and he needs volume ABs.

There is also actually no evidence that he'd be a better offensive player if he'd only had one position. His work with the swing coach appears to have been a bigger issue. And in fact, in 2020, he was supposed to be the 2B. Segura was moved to 3B, even. But he couldn't keep the job. Obviously there were other reasons for that, but they did try.

[Philsmania]

The move to full time SS was also misguided and perhaps was a move designed to push JP Crawford (and it backfired on both as Crawford did not take well to the utility role and never got the chance he deserved at SS with the Phillies before he was traded).

It will forever be a mystery to me what happened with the Phillies and Crawford. Prior to the 2018 season, they annointed him as the shortstop of the future and gave him the starting job. He had a so-so start then ended up on the DL before the end of April but, yet, by the time he returned from the DL, it appeared that he simply no longer fit in their plans. He never saw significant action after that as the Phillies used Kingery primarily at the SS position and, after the season and prior to the trade, he was never mentioned in their future outlook. When the Mariners traded for him, they did so with the knowledge that he had fallen out of favor with the Phillies and was essentially an extra piece for them. Did the Phillies come to perceive some kind of attitude, work ethic or deep, dark character issue they were concerned about during that month? Or were he and Kapler--whom the Phillies were still all-in on at that point--simply oil and water? It's all a mystery to me.

[andyb]

Kingery was definitely the teacher's pet for awhile in 2018 even when Crawford got healthy. It could have been old school types who wanted to teach the flashier rookie (Crawford) a thing or two. The Phillies were probably pleasantly surprised that Kingery could play a credible SS (a bit below average but credible).

But there were one or two games if I recall correctly that Kingery was SS and Crawford was playing either 2B or 3B. Only a handful but that was dumb. If you were starting both then Crawford was clearly the better SS even if the advanced metrics in Crawford's initial small sample size at SS were poor. It was painfully obvious that Crawford was a good defensive SS who just needed regular reps there, a future that has been realized with the gold gloves.

Whatever happened, favoritism or bad evaluation, it was an avoidable black mark on the organization that was exacerbated by Klentak's moves (Santana then Segura which cost them Crawford and $$$$). Probably the worst sequence by far in Klentak's reign.

[fish]

exacerbated by Klentak's moves (Santana then Segura which cost them Crawford and $$$$).

And the draft pick. I'd lament the lack of effort he put in to adding talent during his attempt at a rebuild, but he wouldn't have gotten those picks right anyway.

I know you can't trust what you see in spring training, but Kingery was just so good (and in the minors) it still seems to me that his subsequent failure isn't a talent problem, but mental (and bad coaching).

[zambonir]

He got hurt, Kapler never seemed to take to him, and also he wasn't playing especiallly well and the team was in first place. So somehow that disaster of an analytics staff also drew the conclusion that Kingery was the better option (defensively), plus there was still pressure to make Kingery look like he was worth his contract. And then they reversed course and brought in a worse defensive player who also didn't hit, while still refusing to send Kingery down.

I think Machado was also a big factor. They went into the off-season thinking they might let JP and Franco fight it out for 3B (and Machado's bat would make a lighter-hitting 3B okay) and maybe make the position switch down the line. I truly believe they only started to move off of Machado after the playoff "controversy," soured Middleton, and even then Klentak would have picked Manny over Harper left to his own devices.

Then the Mariners deal came along, which still wasn't a terrible trade, just a classic squandering of future WAR for present WAR. Had the two relievers done more (Nicasio was okay, just overpaid) or had they been able to get Diaz (even though hindsight says that would have been disastrous) as they were attempting when talks began it would have been better too.

Also kind of forgotten in all this is how the Phillies weren't willing to trade Cesar. I know they were never happy with the offers but at some point it shouldn't have mattered. That was also a casualty of being in first place at the 2018 deadline, and going all-in for 2019. A team that was still rebuilding or even just modestly improving (which they didn't do anyway) would have put Crawford and Kingery out there in 2019 and let them take their lumps. Would that team have traded for JT? Or even signed Harper? Probably still the latter at least, he didn't have that many options and his second choice wasn't about to win either.

[andyb]

Then the Mariners deal came along, which still wasn't a terrible trade, just a classic squandering of future WAR for present WAR.

There were other parts of the trade though. Not just picking up Nicasio's contract, but Santana was actually very good after he was traded. Signing Santana initially could have been a good move. They just needed to trade Hoskins at the same time to play Santana at 1B. Santana was worth 5.6 WAR in the 2 years after he was dealt. Segura has been worth 6.7 for the Phillies (1 more year of control). Crawford 5.5 (with 3 more years of control).

This is just going to be an awful trade and we did not even save money on it. Looking at Segura vs Crawford in isolation is only part of the trade (and that will equal only a small Phillies lost once all the years of control are done).

[zambonir]

Yeah Santana over Hoskins would have been an interesting consideration, but not one they gave any thought too. They overpaid to get Santana on a bad/rebuilding team and of course Hoskins to LF was even worse than Kingery not being a 2B, so to them it was a pure salary dump in which Crawford was also a sweetener.

Straight-up for Segura the Phillies could have made a different deal, but Santana didn't have any real market value at his salary, especially as he also appeared to be in decline (that he went on to have the year he did at 33 is not something anyone could have foreseen, and also might not have happened anywhere but in his Cleveland comfort zone). As it was the Mariners had to take back an even more expensive player from Cleveland (along with sending cash, though that was offset by the Rays), albeit on a shorter deal. And we would have lost their mind had they chosen a 33 year-old 1B with just two years left on an expensive contract over Hoskins.

[zambonir]

I feel like Gelb is overstating things considerably here, especially since the Phillies' track record with "proven" relievers has been so terrible.

NL East lineup check: Best offseason move? Biggest need before Opening Day?

Knebel comes with red flags because he’s pitched in just 39 regular-season innings in the past three years, but he provides a late-inning presence the Phillies crave. Whether he is the closer remains to be seen — the Phillies still need two or three more high-leverage relievers — but Knebel is coming to Philadelphia with the expectation he’ll close.

They need Seranthony to be back, they need 1-2 people of the recent additions to be useful at the low end (including in the endless cycle of option/call-up) and they need at least one of Alvarado, Brogdon and Coonrod to take a step forward. 1 more guaranteed contract free agent (or trade acquisition) at most, and then maybe a minor league deal vet to compete with whoever is still on the 40 come ST.

[bkox]

Thrilled to announce that I’ve accepted a position with the Philadelphia Phillies as an Associate Baseball Operations Analyst. Extremely excited and thankful for this opportunity. Can’t wait to get to work. pic.twitter.com/87PMjnO8FR

— Patrick Brennan ( @paintingcorner ) January 10, 2022

[EDmuch]

Sorry if I am out of touch, but who is Patrick Brennan?

[bkox]

no idea... but hes part of the Phillies analyst team now... and its a slow news cycle

[zambonir]

Probably just some 22 year-old baseball blogger (not that there's anything wrong with that).

That may actually be true but he was previously at Kansas State. Here's a recent podcast:

Effectively Wild Episode 1794: Play Up and Pay Up