Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[EDmuch]

I don't think Haseley ever established himself as a legitimate prospect. He did not hit for any power and his defense in center field was mediocre at best.

[Austinfan]

Haseley was a top college player and hit very well in Reading at age 22-23, then was rushed to the majors at 23, struggled a bit at the plate but was solid defensively. Pretty much lost the 2020 season and struggled last year with personal issues.

But the talent is there, he's a line drive hitter who showed good gap power, batting eye and the ability to make contact in the high minors. He just needs a fresh start this spring. Doesn't have the range to be more than an average or so CF (still better than Herrera last year) but a plus fielder in the corners.

[zambonir]

Yeah, have to agree there, at least Kingery established himself as an everyday player for a short period, and a useful one for a longer period. Haseley was just a brief flicker; even the fact that he was already pretty clearly projecting as a bench OF was a disappointment, if not a failure. For it to be otherwise he was either going to have to take a huge leap as a hitter or a huge leap as a defensive OF. Girardi didn't do him any favors in 2020, though the short season didn't either (and then 2021 was essentially a lost season for him too). And obviously he was not better than Herrera last year (other than in spring training) though we'll just never know what his issues were and can only hope he's in a better place mentally and physically.

Bohm I don't think we should even view as a bust, and he probably should have never been sent down. Not that he wasn't struggling/doesn't need to fix some things. Of course they also fired the two coaches who were supposed to be developing him (defensively and at the plate).

Kingery's had two lost seasons as well, I just have a hard time imagining him winning a job out of spring training, if he's even physically ready (more possible with a lockout, though less possible if ST ends up being abbreviated). But would be a great help at some point in the season if he got on track.

[Austinfan]

At worst I can see a loaded Lehigh team to start the season, with veteran patches in Philly, and kids brought up once they've shown they're too good for AAA:

C: O'Hoppe, Marchan
1B; Hall
2B: Kingery (also CF), Maton
SS: Stott (if he doesn't make the team), Guthrie
3B: Williams
LF: Moniak
CF: Haseley
RF: Ortiz

[Aquapong]

Eflin and Gibson will be free agents after this year. But if there’s one strength of the free agent class for next year, it’s plenty of Elfin/Gibson middle to back of the rotation clones. That doesn’t worry me.

Segura his an option for 2023, but at $17mil, it’s pretty expensive one with a cheap buy out. We can get similar production for cheaper at 2B.

The team needs to look at Didi as sunk cost and make plans to move on. Had he performed as he did in the shortened season, his contract would be worth it. It seemed like a good risk to take, but it just didn’t work out. If he rebounds this year, awesome. But I wouldn’t count on it.

[flyers19rw]

One thing that has to be said about Segura is that his arm/defense is a real plus. His throws to first on a DP are lasers when necessary. He gets the DP on that play when others can’t. The same with his relay throws. These things don’t show in stats but they create outs and curtail runners from advancing. It’s a plus.

[zambonir]

That Iron PIgs team looks loaded the same way it would be with guys like Gosselin, Nick Williams and Andrew Knapp. There is competence and depth and some of them will put up numbers but only one guy projects as a future major league starter (plus a few wishes), and none have previously shown themselves to be "too good for AAA" (except the guys who mostly skipped it and have been sent back). That's also still true of Vierling.

I also think O'Hoppe goes back to Reading, even with his performance (assuming Marchan is neither the major league back-up or traded, that is).

Segura has wound up being a nice player but he's really the poster boy for everything that Klentak did wrong. His acquisition is directly linked to the Santana mistake (including moving Rhys), which they fixed by losing the only good first-round position player the Phillies system has produced since (gulp!) Chase Utley (D'arnaud was a comp pick) topped off by the fact that Segura wasn't a good SS and second base only happened to be open due to Kingery's failed trajectory.

[allentown]

I think it almost a lock that the best performer in ST among Kingery, Moniak, Haseley makes the Phillies to start the season.

[zambonir]

You keep saying it and I keep saying it but I'm sticking to my take: Kingery is going to need several months in AAA. He had shoulder surgery on July 20. He may or may not be fully recovered in time for spring training (reports at the time said they were hoping he might be ready by February or March) but after the last two years he had, he's unlikely to be good enough to get back on the 40. Different injuries, but I think Didi's 2019 is probably a good point of comparison - except Didi was an established and not-rusty player before his injury whose track record and salary meant he got to play his way back into shape at the major league level. Either way, Kingery needs ABs just the same as he did last year, since he never got them.

I still imagine either one of Moniak or Haseley will be traded too. The other may not may not join Vierling on the bench. History says our manager and GM prefers veteran role players. Of course the bench make-up also depends on who the starters are, as well as the SS and DH situation.

[bkeich]

At worst I can see a loaded Lehigh team to start the season, with veteran patches in Philly, and kids brought up once they've shown they're too good for AAA:

C: O'Hoppe, Marchan
1B; Hall
2B: Kingery (also CF), Maton
SS: Stott (if he doesn't make the team), Guthrie
3B: Williams
LF: Moniak
CF: Haseley
RF: Ortiz

Honestly, what you have there is 1 guy who is likely to have a good ML career (Stott) a few guys that will be bad ML players (the entire OF, Marchan and Kingery) and bunch of maybes to even play in the ML This isnt exactly "loaded", that is more like a team that wont win much (AAAA players will be better) and a bunch of guys that will one day be AAAA players. That is actually nothing to be excited about at all in my opinion, every ML team has a AAA team with at least 1 real prospect and a bunch of maybes.

[andyb]

It is a weird AAA team that has younger AAAA players rather than 28-30 year olds. But not necessarily a good team in terms of prospects. I have hopes that one of the catchers and outfielders will become at least an average regular but other than Stott I really don't have too many expectations.

I also find it fascinating that everyone just assumes Vierling is a big leaguer who will continue to get better. I really see little to suggest he is any better than the Moniaks and Haseleys of this AAA roster.

[zambonir]

Vierling is just recency bias. He was hot, he was hitting the ball hard, and it was the last day of August when he came back up (and went 4-5), so we never had to see him cool off the same way Williams and Maton did. Though really, he did, just from a greater height - obviously his OPS dropping from 1,250 to .983 after one week was just a normal correction, but after September 8 it continued drop to .843, and his actual September/October OPS was .764).

It's always more exciting to see a lesser draft pick overachieve than a #1 underachieve, and this board especially also seems eager to embrace any "he fixed his own swing because the Phillies are terrrible at development" narrative. Problem is it's not clear he really did: his 200+ ABs in AAA last year with a .690 OPS still count as much if not more than his 77 in the majors. If AAA pitchers were able to get him out, the guys in the majors are going to figure it out too.

It's nice to have him in the mix but just slotting him in as the RH CF seems especially optimistic, and they may need a LHB who can play 1B and 3B and DH more (unless Didi's here and not starting).

[Austinfan]

We really don't know what these kids can do - the last two years have been totally screwy, and I'm sure it's messed with the development trajectory of a lot of prospects. If Omicron burns out in February and we have a normal year, prospects are going to make huge jumps all over the majors as kids with limited PT will be two years older physically and more likely to have "breakout" seasons.

The other wildcard for the Phillies is whether the new development staff can develop players.

[zambonir]

But most of them aren't "kids" in AAA. Some of them are even old. A good 26 year-old player - Haseley and Williams will both be that age - is already a major leaguer, maybe even an all-star, not a guy trying to finally catch on (or get back) just before reaching what's considered to be peak age.

The development staff won't be super-focused on the guys in Lehigh Valley either. They have an entire bottom-up system to reshape. Mattingly hired his guy for AAA and hopefully he'll help but his main job will still be making sure his roster is ready for the call-ups.

[flyers19rw]

At the end of the season, Kruk mentioned on the air, that the more that he saw of Vierling, the more that he saw to like. Good swing and pitch recognition. His defense in the OF was fine for a corner player. We should have more hope for Vierling than Hasely or Moniak right now.

[andyb]

Not so sure about that. Haseley is the same age as Vierling and actually accomplished much more in the minors before the last 2 years. And Moniak is a couple of years younger.

As Z said, recency bias is in effect here. The only impression of Vierling was the first time around the league impression and he was not really that good in AAA. Clearly he has improved over the last 2 years (and Moniak has stalled and Haseley has regressed because of COVID and personal issues), but there is just not a lot of non-heresay evidence that Vierling is more than an extra outfielder with positional versatility. That is a good thing and might save us a few million over a free agent, but it is not really evidence that he is better than Haseley or Moniak.

[zambonir]

His defense in the OF was fine for a corner player.

But unless they don't sign a true starting LF, they don't need him to be a corner player. The RF barely takes a day off and the 1B and 3B are both RHBs. No doubt he has a better shot at winning a bench job even with those caveats but if he ends up starting 60 games in either CF or LF he'll likely be around replacement level. That's not to say Haseley or Moniak are better options, and he certainly outplayed Williams. If the entire starting OF is LH (i.e. Schwarber/Kiermaier) that's probably good for Vierling too. His real competition might be Kingery, in the long run.

Nothing against Vierling, I hope he carves out a niche for himself. He could be a RH Brad Miller or a RH Phil Gosselin. Would love to be wrong but I wouldn't build my roster around that possibility (much as they aren't building their roster around the Moniak or Haseley being key contributors).

[allentown]

Mattingly hired his guy for AAA and hopefully he'll help but his main job will still be making sure his roster is ready for the call-ups.

Yes, but that means rapidly corrected their acquired bad habits to make them ready for call-up. I don't see any difference between focusing on their development and focusing on getting them ready for a call-up. The bottom line is that they need to improve to be worthy of a call-up/

[zambonir]

Sure. But to truly fix Moniak, Haseley or Kingery you would need a time machine (spanning two other development regimes, as well as some private coaches). And the hitting coordinator (for the entire minors) is still the same Driveline guy, in his fourth season. They kept the pitching coordinator too. Not to mention their bad habits were acquired under the major league staff (even if they've changed hitting coaches yet again).

At the same time, for those guys, simply having a normal, healthy half-season in AAA may be enough, after the last two years of either no organized baseball or constant interruptions due to health or call-ups.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I will say this on Vierling. Defensively he is very good in the corners and can hold his own in CF, he can play 1B and can stand at 3B (neither of which are primary positions but are nice on the bench). As for stats, he has a history of good plate discipline and that there is a reason everyone related to AAA got let go as well as the MLB hitting coach and it is because everything that touched those two withered and died. All of that combines to put the floor as 4th/5th OF type with good bench versatility.

However, in AA, AAA, and then the majors his exit velocity numbers stand out. Among players with at least 50 PAs in the majors his 91.5 mph is 43rd sitting in a group with Matt Olson, Joey Gallo, Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker, and Freddie Freeman. Exit velocity isn't everything, and he suffers from much of the same problems as Alec Bohm (who is ahead of him at 36th at 92.0) where he needs to elevate the ball more to really tap into it. But it gives him ceiling, he is exactly the type of player that Kevin Long has gotten something out of in the past and there is a path here where he is Justin Turner at the plate and suddenly he is a very good everyday player. Not saying it will happen, but there isn't a path forward like that for Moniak or Haseley.

So he isn't the new hotness as much as he is a guy with some real underlying skills who has a clear path to being a major league contributor now with the tools where he could become an impact player (even if it is more of 80+ percentile outcome). For me he sits 9th in the system sitting firmly between the interesting upside guys at the top and the mess of young players who haven't played and the upper minors guys with real question marks.