Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[zambonir]

Yeah I believe "high-priced" referred to his trade cost. Even with the suspension, which is a negligible factor compared to the attractiveness of his low salary/control. (Also the suspension is less than a month - 27 games left.)

All of those things also make him someone the A's don't have to trade.

[EDmuch]

To me Laureano, since he is rather young, is worth making a real trade offer, maybe Marchan, Ortiz and a AA pitcher. A’s don’t “have to” trade anyone. Apparently ownership simply wants to clear payroll before heading to Vegas.

[Austinfan]

Phillies can't keep looking to free agency or trades to fill holes.
They should start the season with Moniak, Haseley and Ortiz at Lehigh, with Muzzioti at Reading, and Rojas at Lakewood.
Kingery will get a long look at camp. If he can hit, he can flll in at CF, otherwise off to Lehigh to rediscover his stroke.
Vierling can be part of a platoon in LF.

So I'd be looking for short-term patches while they try and develop this group of OFs.
A LH veteran to pair with Vierling, someone who can play defense in CF (and if he can't hit bury him at #8 in the lineup).

If you add Bohm and Stott to the IF at some point, you can carry a good field/no hit CF, say Muzzioti later in the season or next year, and let him learn to hit on the job. If Bohm can't handle 3B, move him to LF, Scott to 3B and Garcia to SS in a year or two. Give Moniak and Haseley have a shot of earning a platoon opportunity.

I doubt Middleton is going to bust the cap until they're a 90+ win team, but any team spending up to the cap should be a 90 win team if well managed. To get there, you have to avoid too many FA contracts and fill some spots on the cheap.

[EDmuch]

With your approach they should be a 90 win team somewhere around 2037 and Middleton will probably be deceased.

[zambonir]

You say don't do free agency or trades but then you are still filling LF and CF via those avenues, which is really all the Phillies apparently intend to do anyway. That (plus a few small moves) will take them to the cap. They only bust it if they don't stand pat at SS.

The only minor difference is the LF will likely be an everyday player. And probably one of Haseley and Moniak will get traded one way or another. And also Kingery won't even be ready if spring training starts on time (thought I guess at least he is free to work out in Clearwater as a minor league player).

If they do get Kiermaier the question is do they change gears in LF? With Schwarber that entire OF would be LHBs, and I am not still buying Vierling as more than the 4th OF (possibly 5th).

Trade-wise, we can just assume the Phillies won't give up Painter, Abel or Stott unless it's for someone really good/controllable. But anything else is possible. And I could still see a big surprise, whether it's trading Segura, or Bohm (what if they did a deal with Oakland for both Laureano and Chapman, for instance?).

The clock isn't Middleton's life expectancy, it is Girardi and Dombrowski and JT and Nola and Wheeler and Hoskins's window. Which is just two years, collectively. The perenial much-needed organization shift/rebuild is basically Fuld and Mattingly's problem.

[Austinfan]

The reason low budget teams have outperformed the Phillies is not just drafting and player development, it's also the ability to fill holes with low cost solutions, put together an inexpensive platoon in LF, find a defensive CF who'll take the load off Harper and allow a one dimensional LH LF to fill in for a year or two. For a team like the Phillies, these are the fixes that free up cap room for say another SP so they're not dependent on Eflin returning.

A team with a bad farm system can't afford to trade Bohm, give up a cheap player for an expensive player will squeeze the cap further. And Moniak, Haseley, et al won't get you anything of value.

Dombrowski has limited options, and Girardi probably has zero say in offseason decisions.

[andyb]

Trades for second tier (i.e. not All Star) level starters that are starting to get expensive in arbitration are exactly the thing this team needs to do. Those players (like Laureano and Margot) cost less in prospects than the pre-arbitration players, and while they offer fewer years of control, those years are in the prime of the players career with no downside of a long contract.

The trick is taking enough contract in these deals so we don't have to give up any of our top prospects (and remember that is a list that only goes to 4 or 5 prospects).

I just hope Dombrowski is creative enough to figure out the right deal or two.

[andyb]

If your strategy is to be better at low cost additions it is a strategy guaranteed to fail. Also, when is any team NOT trying to do this?

The difference between the Phillies and other contending teams is really not having a group of young players in their prime that are serious contributors (age 26-29) and not making a lot of money. Hoskins and Nola are it for that group. Maybe Eflin but he is too injury prone to count. Most teams have 6-8 players in that age group contributing. The Phillies don't.

Low cost additions are not going to fix that.

[zambonir]

I'm not saying Hasely or Moniak get you much, but they have become redundant (if you keep both), and would still add value to some package. The trick is making the right call on which guy to keep, though if Moniak is more valuable (due to his age and the "1" next to his draft history) that's also a factor.

At this point Dombrowski has no attachment to them, or Kingery.

And yes, it would be dumb to sell low on Bohm and replace him with Kris Bryant, an older expensive player. But if you can put Bohm in a deal for Matt Chapman (who has three years of control left) you consider it. If there are other scenarios that end up with Bohm changing positions that's okay too.

[flyers19rw]

If a big budget club were in the same situation as the Phillies are, would they be nickel-diming solutions? I doubt it. Sign Bryant and move along. Vierling-Bryant-Harper backed up by Moniak and Hasely. If the Phillies can obtain one of the Rays’ CFers for cheap, nab him. Let Stott and Didi fight it out for SS. Now the BP….

[allentown]

"Phillies can't keep looking to free agency or trades to fill holes."
Very true. I think they can afford to sign one major FA and that's about it. I'd like that guy to be Correa, but he likely doesn't want us. He would solve a lot of problems: SS, another big bat, young enough to contribute for years, positional flexibility.. I don't think we can afford another year of Didi at SS.

If not Correa, then Bryant or Schwarber are fine as a bat, and certainly cheaper. I don't think he can play CF, other than as a short-term injury back-up. Neither solves our defensive problems, although both okay in LF. They also reduce our positional flexibility, if Bohm can't stay at 3B for a year or two. Still OK, IF there is a DH in NL next year.

Other than the one big splash (Correa) or (Bryant or Schwarber + equivalent $ (FA or trade, giving up not much talent for a Kiermaier sort of guy -- he would solve CF for a year or two), I think the other holes need to be filled on the cheap.

If Kingery works out, he gives us a lot of positional flexibility. If we don't move one of Segura or Didi, he starts in AAA, as does Stott. If the Phillies truly see Marson's ceiling as backup catcher, then he should start in Philly as a cheap backup, with O'Hoppe the guy who gets promoted if an injury happens. Unless we hit on a cheap AAAA 4th/5th OF, I think the role goes to whomever of Moniak/Haseley is best out of ST is the 5th OF and the other in AAA as injury backup and Vierling as 4th OF. There will be another AAAA vet OF in Allentown as backup.

Pen and 6th starter will have to be cheap dumpster dives.

[zambonir]

We are a big-budget club! 7th-highest payroll last year (8th highest in payroll that actually went to the 26-man roster). Just don't know how to spend the $ right - and buying free agents at the top of the market certainly hasn't been the right answer for three of the last four years either. Overpaying for people's decline years (Cutch, Didi, Arrieta) also an issue.

The best answer is still to either pay the tax or figure out how to unload payroll (Didi, Kingery) creatively regardless of how you do it but I certainly have no objection to Schwarber + Kiermaier over Bryan + Vierling (who I don't think is good enough offensive or defensively. We've seen less of him than we saw of Bohm in 2020.

[zambonir]

If the Phillies truly see Marson's ceiling as backup catcher, t

Haha, good typo. We sure have a lot of young catchers who turned out to be back-up catchers over the years.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I was a big fan of Lou Marson a while back.

Obviously the reference was meant to be Raphael Marchan. I’m good with him starting the year as our backup catcher.

[bkox]

Lou Marson

Now a manager for the Angel's AAA team

[RTaylor]

I don't think guys like Kingery were a complete mirage, and I really hope the team can fix a couple of the players they messed up. Personal note: my wife and I retired to Seattle, and our kids got us tix for the Mariners-Phils series here. Baseball better not mess up our Christmas present!

[EDmuch]

We can afford to sign more than one UFA. Segura and Did both come off the books after next year. That is a savings of between $25-30 million.

[bkox]

We can afford to sign more than one UFA. Segura and Did both come off the books after next year. That is a savings of between $25-30 million.

Kyle Gibson and Zach Eflin do too.. meaning we will need to fill rotation holes as well

[andyb]

They are at various stages of failure, but Bohm, Kingery, and Haseley are potentially huge assets if we can fix them. They have shown they have the physical tools to be productive major leaguers though various issues (mental, coaching, some injuries, COVID) have sidelined them to the point of diminished expectations.

Getting serious production out of one or two of them is really pretty important in putting together a contender. We tend to move on at early signs of trouble (i.e. JP Crawford, Nick Pivetta) instead of determining what is wrong with our development systems and fixing them.

This does not mean giving them repeated chances and seeing them fail. It means fixing them and getting real production. It is doubtful this will happen (and I consider Bohm at 1B as largely a failure since replacement level is easy to get there), but it sure would be nice if we had some development successes and I have much more confidence in fixing number one picks with tools than on counting on it from marginal talents like Vierling and Maton.

[Philsmania]

I would rank Bohm, Haseley and Kingery in that order in terms if likelihood to get fixed. I fear Kingery is too fargone at this point. And, they spent five years trying to figure out Pivetta (and it's not like he really got that good in Boston). But yes, they soured on Crawford in a big way fast.