Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[julio]

Center field in CBP is not the biggest one in the League. Bryant could easily handle it; especially with Harper in RF.

After all, 3B is Burrell’s natural position!

[BostonRoss]

If Kiermaier has almost negative trade value, then I would grab him. He's better defensively than anyone the Phillies have and may well be better offensively. I suspect the Rays will require something value in a trade beyond someone like Moniak, though.

[zambonir]

Yeah I think negative trade value is a bit of an exaggeration - it's just that if the Rays won't pick up a penny of his contract, they won't get that much back. By the same token, the Phillies can afford to decide whether they'd rather spend $14.5 million (his 2022 salary and 2023 buyout) or whether it's worth giving up a couple of players to only have to pay out $8 or 9 million. Which also happens to be his AAV, so it's not a huge CBT burden.

Everyone - including Dombrowski - knows the Rays are probably going to trade the guy, they have enough OFs and it's what they do.

But they are also pretty likely to consider trading Margo because they like to move players (and get more for them) just before they get expensive or close to FA, not before.

Gonna be lots of time for things to play out, in any case.

[BostonRoss]

I wouldn't object to Margot, but I would prefer Kiermaier. The Rays would want more for Margot since his salary is a lot lower. Kiermaier is better, and the Phillies can afford to pay him.

[EDmuch]

To me the ideal scenario (which will never happen) is we trade for KIermaier, the trade Segura to off set Kiermaier, move Did to second and sign Schwarber and Correa. I know it is a pipe dream.

[BostonRoss]

To me the ideal scenario (which will never happen) is we trade for KIermaier, the trade Segura to off set Kiermaier, move Did to second and sign Schwarber and Correa. I know it is a pipe dream.

This is close to my preferred scenario although I agree it’s very unlikely. But I would keep Segura and just have a higher payroll. Maybe move Didi and eat a chunk of his salary.

[bkox]

This would increase our salary about $55-$60M wouldnt it? 35M for Correa, 18M for Schwarber and 12M for Klermaier if we also keep Didi/Segura. How much does that put us at? And what about any bullpen pieces?

[zambonir]

Kiermaier's AAV is 8.9 which is the more important #. Which is ironic, because that $3 million difference is probably all they'd pay in luxury tax if they went slightly over it. They can afford that, they just don't want to do it.

I would tend to agree that if you are signing Correa and busting the threshold, Didi's salary no longer matters and it would be risky to downgrade 2B once you've gone all-in like that. If his bat comes back he could DH and do the super-utility thing.

I'd suggest trying to get Tampa to take Kingery at 50% (just to trim some payroll) but if they fix him they wouldn't be able to keep him.

I think the bullpen is pretty close to done. One more $3-4 million type or another Alvarado/Coonrod type trade. Then a few name minor league deals down the line to compete with all the new guys on the 40 for last spot or two.

[EDmuch]

It would probably put us about $25 million over the existing Cap for one year. Then Didi and Segura are both gone in 2023 which brings us down near the existing Cap.

[andyb]

One has to believe that the cap will rise at least $10 to $20 million this year if they keep a somewhat similar system. The cap rose much slower than revenues in the last agreement so a mid-size bump has to be almost guaranteed.

The Phillies do have multiple ways to shed salary too, though it remains to be seen how much a priority is placed on staying under the cap. Penalties may also be revised under any system. I always thought the 1st time, second time scale of penalties was silly. They should just do percentages based on how much a team is over the cap.

[allentown]

I'd be surprised if the answer to your question was other than 'the Phillies place an extremely high priority, possibly absolute, on staying below the cap'. Afterall, over the years, but with some continuing pieces of the original ownership families, this team has NEVER exceeded any cap guidance set by the Commissioner Whomever, whether on MLB salary budget or bonuses to draft picks. This is not a question of what the penalty is. They never exceeded the zero-penalty guidance on draft bonuses from the commissioner. This goes back to the history of the Phillies. Ruly Carpenter sold the team, because he was upset about rising player salaries and reduced absolute control of owners and commissioner. Bill Giles seems to have been picked to organize the new ownership group, precisely because he could be relied upon to continue Ruly's battle and be an automatic supporter of any move by the commissioner to hold down bonuses and salaries. Presumably, the Bucks were brought into ownership not only for their $, but because they could be counted on continue fighting what was regarded as the good fight. Middleton would have had to pass muster with this ownership group in order to be allowed into the boys' club.

One big factor that locks ownerships' of most of the teams and the league as a whole into neanderthal thinking on so many issues is the requirement that an owner must get approval to sell his team to a new owner. This means new thinking joining the ranks of owners can only occur when the commissioner and the existing owners make an error in sizing up a proposed new ownership group for a team that is being sold. It is a direct outgrowth of MLB's antitrust exemption.

The Phillies will never be the successful bad boys of baseball, whom the Yankees, Dodgers, and even the Braves are. They are such reliable toadies for the commissioner, that they don't even seem to get any benefits from their toadying.

[andyb]

they don't even seem to get any benefits from their toadying.

Other than consistent profits of course.

[bkox]

Not really hot stove.. but interesting and depressing tidbit:

With Kyle Seager retiring, Jean Segura becomes the active leader in games played without playing in the postseason. J.T. Realmuto is 2nd on the list. Maikel Franco is 3rd.

— Casey Feeney ( @caseyfeeney66 ) December 29, 2021

[allentown]

Other than consistent profits of course.

Just about every team seems to have consistent profits, but some push the envelope (when not outright cheating) in order to win. The commish seems to deal rather lightly with them. When they were barred from signing international players for a year, he actually allowed them to trade their unuseable allocation. The commish seems to bow to those who push or break the boundaries.

[zambonir]

Of course the commissioner does what the owners want (and in the Selig years, was literally one of them). And most of these things are in the CBA now, not rules set by the league office. Even the rebellious free-spending teams still tend to be company men in the long run, especially post-George. All the rich teams seemed happy to let the Astros/McKinsey family tree do what they did to the minors too.

I don't know that Middleton feels bound to MLB tradition so much as, he already had the same businessman/owner/boss mentality. That he played very little role in actually building his business or making his money has also seemed to show itself in the way he's been ill-suited to the day-to-day responsibilities of being the Phillies' control person.

It's actually more frustrating that our team can't get better results from what they do spend than that they refuse to exceed the cap. Even LA managed to be under it last year before going big again this past season.

[Aquapong]

The FA market next offseason looks weak aside from the plethora of solid starters. We’re not going to get better at all of SS, 3B, CF, and LF in the next two offseasons. Stott looks the part to take one infield position for a while. If Bohm rebounds offensively, he can take over 1B/DH after Hoskins. Maybe this is the year to finally go for broke with a guy like Correa. Trade for Kiermeier. See if Rosario or Odubel could provide at least a steady presence in LF for a reasonable rate.

[zambonir]

There are a ton of OFs out there that we never talk about too. Not ironclad guys to fill CF or the middle of the order, but in that scenario above, for sure. Heck, even Cutch, if he's not starting. But he'll probably move on. And I don't think anyone (in the clubhouse or the corporate suite) really wants Herrera back.

[zambonir]

Phillies have few realistic options available to upgrade center field – Phillies...

TLDR:

In left field, the Phillies have five attractive free agent options in Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto and Seiya Suzuki. Center fielders who can hit and field their position are rarely plentiful in any free agent class since most tend to age out of the position by the time they hit free agency. For those who do hit the market, teams sign a lengthy deal knowing that the player would have to transition to another position near the end of the deal.

Unless the front office comes up with a creative solution to address the problem, the Phillies will come out of the lockout with very few adequate options available to address center field. In the end, it seems like a Kiermaier deal checks multiple boxes. The Phillies can commit to Kiermaier for a year and improve their defense with a low-cost trade in terms of prospects and look forward to a time when high-priced center field options like Reynolds, Mullins or even Laureano become more attainable.

[EDmuch]

Laureano is not currently "high priced". I think his salary for next year is somewhere between $2and $3 million. I would try to get Kiermaier for little or next to nothing (Haseley or Moniak) and then try to put together a real trade offer with the A's for Laureano. With his 2 month suspension still in effect the price for Laureano is probably as low as it ever will be.

[EDmuch]

An outfield of Schwarber. Kiermaier, Laureano. Vierling and Harper would be a playoff caliber outfield.