Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[zambonir]

He put up 3.4 WAR in 101 starts (plus 20 off the bench) and 390 PAs. No major injuries for three seasons. So I think I'd take that and just roll with what they've got for a back-up. Though you probably include Moniak or Haseley in a deal and need a RHB (Williams?).

A bigger trade for a younger player with more of a bat still intriguing, but at what cost? You don't typically give up your top prospect in deadline deals but you often do for off-season deals involving controllable players. Supposedly they were trying to get Kiermaier already so it's just a question of getting Tampa to budge on what is still really a salary dump for them. But with the $ that the Mets gave out to players of the same age, can't blame 'em for trying.

A lot of options here. Also mentioned, Gelb's recent mailbag where he says there is little chance the Phillies stand pat at the position. But, Vierling, and perhaps even Kingery, also bench possibilities. .

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/how-can-the-phillies-solidify-their-uncertain-center-field-mix.html

[Philsmania]

CF by Committee?

This was a bad year to need a centerfielder. It seems there are few good ones and fewer who are available.

[allentown]

Yes, CF by committee. This does not seem to be the year to trade for an older CF.

[zambonir]

I don't think they can do CF by committee unless they acquire someone who is part of the committee (i.e. Bryant). And there are plenty of names on that MLBTR post.

If they don't intend to sign a SS, and go with Didi/Stott, they can afford to get a CF (along with a LF). Different story if they sign Correa (and still get LF), then they could still get less out of CF.

Another option would be to skimp on LF (a Miller/Vierling platoon? Another RH vet?).

While the obvious answer is to pay the CBT, they can't keep kicking the can down the road while building 81-84 win teams (or worse). This is Girardi's last year, contractually. Strictlly speaking, it's also Nola's. They look like a third-place team even if you assume some of these holes are filled (though the Mets can also be relied on to fail). The trade price for a CF must be paid.

[andyb]

If a CF by committee lets us add an impact bat (likely in LF but possibly at 3B) while also filling out the bullpen then I am fine with that.

The Phillies had extraordinarily bad luck with their CF options last year. Even excluding Herrera who actually performed above replacement level. We should really gotten more out of Haseley and Quinn who on paper are a decent platoon option that should have given them a 700 OPS and acceptable defense. A CF by committee does not preclude adding an inexpensive player as part of that committee. I trust the Phillies to know what they have in Haseley before making him part of that committee. Vierling is an option too as long as the left-handed part of the platoon plays better defense.

Imagine we could pick up JBJ for almost nothing if we wanted to after his past season and given his $11 million salary. Ideally we would dump some money in a trade to get him though not sure we have candidates other than Didi who Milwaukee probably would not want.

[bkox]

Ideally we would dump some money in a trade to get him though not sure we have candidates other than Didi who Milwaukee probably would not want.

JBJ was traded back to Boston for Hunter Renfroe

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/red-sox-brewers-swap-hunter-renfroe-jackie-bradley-jr.html

[zambonir]

I trust the Phillies to know what they have in Haseley before making him part of that committee. Vierling is an option too as long as the left-handed part of the platoon plays better defense.

So essentially, it can't be Haseley in that scenario.

Like I said in the post above, Gelb believes (based on Dombrowski's own statements) that neither Haseley or Moniak are in the mix for anything other than 5th OF. And given what he went through last year I don't think Haseley is any more major league-ready than Kingery. A guy who puts up a .600 OPS in AAA while rebuilding both his mind and baseball skills still isn't finished doing that.

I'm not especially worried, tbh. My guess is they simply haven't met Tampa's price yet, and if they walk away, it will be to give up even more for someone better/younger. Dombrowski can't afford to be timid.

[andyb]

Like I said in the post above, Gelb believes (based on Dombrowski's own statements) that neither Haseley or Moniak are in the mix for anything other than 5th OF.

5th OF is kind of a misnomer though. Ideally you have 3 starting OF and then 2 more bench players (one who can hit and one better defensively, one LH and one RH).

But once you start platooning, then your 4th and 5th OFs might be part of that platoon. Your 4th OF could be part of a LF and DH rotation if they can hit. And your 5th OF could be part of that CF platoon.

Too much is made of offhand comments. Clearly Haseley is not in their plans. But if the Haseley from 2 years ago showed up in great shape in spring training he would become part of their plans pretty quickly. Remember when we all definitively said it was unlikely Herrera would ever play for the Phillies again? Or in another example when we said Antonio Brown should never play in the NFL again (3 strikes and you are out or is this 6 or 7 strikes).

Things change pretty quickly when players play well or injuries necessitate callups. We still have COVID hanging around too. Haseley is really a better player than Vierling in terms of talent. But we all say Vierling has a much better path to playing time. Is that really correct?

[zambonir]

I mean I'm not sold on Vierling either. But if he's decent enough defensively in CF, he's a 4th or 5th OF himself. I hear you on the misnomer, but any LHB CF is going to get the third-most playing team of any OF (assuming no other platoon).

Vierling looming larger in plans is part recency bias and part positional versatility. Plus as a RHB he would still be able play some LF and DH (assuming they sign Schwarber or do a platoon with someone like Miller) though seems redundant at 3B and 1B.

It would be great if Haseley has a good spring training but if circumstance hands him the job the way it handed Herrera the job, a lot will have gone wrong. Who knows if he will even be in spring training? I guess if you are Tampa or Oakland you'd still rather get Moniak than Haseley, just because he's younger/has more potential. But perhaps a lower floor. It still seems possible to me that Haseley has a better (if still modest) career but he's also pretty close to Dom Brown/Asche status.

[andyb]

In the "scan Tampa's arbitration eligible players and see who is going to start making decent money" exercise one finds Manuel Margot:

Manuel Margot Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

Solid CF defense. .696 OPS last year (.694 career). 2.8 WAR which was a career high based on defense but he is basically averaging a 2.0 WAR over his career in a full season.

One year of control left. $3.4 million last year, projected $5 million this year. How expensive would he be in a trade? We'd be getting his age 27 season. He is right-handed and we'd prefer someone on the long side of the platoon, but he'd definitely solve a problem. Don't they owe us for stealing Curtis Mead?

[zambonir]

Yeah that was covered in the MLBTR story I posted.

If those stars aren’t attainable, where could the Phillies look? The most obvious answer is to Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, who’s due $14.5MM this year (including the buyout on a 2023 club option). Philadelphia has already been linked to the three-time Gold Glove winner this offseason. There’s no question he’d be an upgrade defensively, as he’s perhaps the game’s top gloveman in the outfield. Kiermaier’s bat tends to hover around league average, but that’d still be a marked improvement over the production Philly got in 2021. The concern with Kiermaier is one of durability; he’s only once exceeded 500 plate appearances in a season, with his all-out playing style taking a significant toll on his body over the years.

Kiermaier’s teammate, Manuel Margot, might also be available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary in his final year of club control. He’s a bit worse than Kiemaier on both sides of the ball, but he’s also more affordable and is a strong defensive option in his own right.

[EDmuch]

I suspect that it would cost more in prospects to get Margot than it would cost for Kiermaier because if they traded Margot, they would still be stuck with the extra $10 million for Kiermaier. And $10 million in extra salary is A LOT as for as Tampa is concerned. It seem our best chance would be to focus upon Kiermaier. The one thing about trading with Tampa is that Tampa is willing to consider, as part of a trade, prospects that are in lower levels of the minors. Tampa's upper levels are so stacked with prospects that they are not necessarily looking for immediate help and would be willing to take on development projects. Indeed Tampa seems to like prospects that they can develop according to their own development programs.

[andyb]

I disagee. Kiermaier is only slightly better as a player and 5 years older. Plus almost $10 million extra. He has almost negative trade value the way teams value contracts (and assume players in their 30s might fall off a cliff performance wise).

Haseley likely gets you Margot straight up. Tampa will likely not be able to move the Kiermaier contract unless they give it away for nothing or take almost as much salary coming back (which is something they don't do).

[EDmuch]

You are making my point that Margot will cost more in terms of prospects than Kiermaier. Margot, at his salary. is someone that the Rays can carry for another year. Kiermaier, at his salary, is someone they need to get rid of. Haseley may get you Kiermaier but not Margot. Rays win their trades. They don't just give players away.

[EDmuch]

The other thing that Margot gives us is someone who can bat lead off.

[bkox]

The other thing that Margot gives us is someone who can bat lead off.

Overall career OBP of .306
Career leadoff slashline of: .246/.293/.389/.682

[flyers19rw]

When the game restarts itself, the Phillies will have the cash to burn on a top grade FA. My sense is that Kris Bryant will be wearing red pinstripes next season. Money and term shouldn’t be an issue. There’s no reason that the Phillies can’t meet Bryant/Boras’ demands. Bryant can handle CF; is a RH bat; can handle 3B if Bohm fails and is buddies with one important player on the roster. He solves a lot of potential problems. Schwarber might be a cheaper acquisition but he causes the need for a late inning replacement to be on the roster since his defense is weak.

[zambonir]

The question is can Bryant really play CF? He's only got 29 career games there, 19 of them last year, and is turning 30. Harper was already being moved off of there at a younger age. I think he'd be a good add, and you could move him around the field while still having Kiermaier as your 80-100 game CF.

Or you could just sign Bryant to be your 3B and trade Bohm for a CF, while still signing Schwarber. Otherwise, what, Brad Miller is your LF, or someone like him? Moniak?

I wouldn't say they have cash to burn though. If they're not going to exceed the CBT, that is.

[flyers19rw]

Center field in CBP is not the biggest one in the League. Bryant could easily handle it; especially with Harper in RF. A platoon in LF could be created around Vierling. As the season progressed, his bat became more consistent. His defense is fine. Signing Bryant to move out Bohm has too many moving parts to it.
Hanging your hat on Schwarber is risky. His defense is weak. Additionally your taking a guy coming off of a career year a good part of it being spent in Fenway.

[zambonir]

I just suspect they are more locked in on Schwarber. The hitting coach wants him and he's gonna be a lot cheaper than Bryant which means money to spend in other areas (per MLBTR Bryant would get six years and close to $27 million AAV, Schwarber just four years $17.5).

I think if I'm at the top of the market I'd just go all-in on Correa since he's younger and more valuable.

And Vierling didn't have a season that "progressed." His entire season was pretty much in September, during which he had a .764 OPS. His numbers are goosed by one insane game in August (when he went 4-5) and going 3-6 in his brief June call-up. In between he was a bad AAA hitter, which barely even makes sense. No problem with him on the bench but you still need a real LHB who's actually your starting LF.