Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[Austinfan]

If you have plus fielders at SS and CF, they can cover for a lot of sins. Like Maddox and Bull in LF.
The problem was Cutch, Miller and Herrera ended up starting b/c there were no other options.
Some was bad luck, some was bad management (who expected Quinn to stay healthy?).

[allentown]

(who expected Quinn to stay healthy?).

I don't think anyone expected Quinn to stay healthy for a whole season. It was not unreasonable to expect they might get 60 healthy games out of him. The biggest problem was not injury but that he hit .173 with a .595 OPS. Can't start him with those stats, even if he did stay healthy all year. All teams are going to have some holes, that's especially true of a team like the Phillies which is built around 3 top-tier FA and is lacking in plus home-grown players. Unfortunately, the Phillies didn't do great in their dumpster dives, but... what really killed the Phillies in 2021 and what will hurt again in 2022 is the money spent on Didi (not that the regression in Nola, Kingery, and Bohm weren't also killers -- but I'm talking here about the President/GMs decisions over the winter in filling holes. Didi was a very expensive per bWAR player in 2020 and didn't justify the size contract he received.

[andyb]

Projected arbitration salaries:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html

Odubel Herrera – $11.6MM
Travis Jankowski – $900K
Zach Eflin – $6.0MM
Andrew Knapp – $1.2MM
Jose Alvarado – $1.9MM
Rhys Hoskins – $7.6MM
Ronald Torreyes – $1.6MM
Seranthony Dominguez – $800K
Roman Quinn – $700K

Herrera can be kept for a net of $9 million on his option. Betting they just move on from him. Knapp is likely non-tendered along with Jankowski (low salary but easily replaced). I imagine they keep Alvarado. Hoskins has also gotten less expensive than projected because of injuries. Torreyes is an interesting choice. I would pass on that and resign him to a minor league deal if he wants to stay. Seranthony at that price will get tendered. Quinn might actually be 50-50 depending on his health. It is actually not that much for a bench player that still could provide some value. Bigger question for him is more about carrying him on the roster until spring training where a 60-Day IL stint might give them more time to decide.

[allentown]

Odubel actually had a positive 1.8 bWAR and very slightly positive dWAR this past season, which isn't awful, considering all the time he has missed. He's only 30 next year. $9 mill on a 1-year deal may end up being their best option, unless they have a no-hit, cheap, defensive whiz lined up.

[andyb]

I am just assuming they move on because of the off field issues (and to a small degree the on field concentration issues which really have not improved too much). It might be a good analytic decision to keep him, but getting a better CF like Marte will probably be an organizational priority.

[zambonir]

Odubel with a platoon RHB CF (or if they sign a multi-tool FA though those guys aren't cheap or great CFs) might still work if the big moves are at other positions. But yeah, I think they are done with him. And we really have no idea how it all played out in the room. Plus if you really want him back you could still sign him without the tender.

And $700K for Quinn, you probably do that, it's not like it can't be undone. I was assuming he would be be a seven-figure player (and might have, under normal circumstances).

[Squire]

Phillies are hiring Kevin Long to be the hitting coach. Formerly of the Nationals and Yankees

[bkox]

So they went with the guy who was supposed to be Long's protégée in 2020 and then just went for Long this time?

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) October 11, 2021

Also the Phillies are just assembling old Yankees coaching staffs of a decade plus ago, and that feels like the most Middleton and the Phillies thing possible.

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) October 11, 2021

[zambonir]

Could have sworn I just read yesterday that the Nats were keeping him.

And yes, kind of a weird flex but indeed, he's Joe's guy (and I guess he had Bryce for longer too).

We gonna hire Larry Rothschild too?

[Austinfan]

Well, you either fire Joe or let him hire his guys.

[zambonir]

Yeah but not really. I seriously doubt Joe was the one who decided to fire Dillon (or Castro though that was a much easier call). He also didn't get to hire any of this staff in the first place (except for Dillon and Price merely because those positions had already been vacated).

So yeah, sure, the manager should always get to pick his staff but he didn't pick most of these guys, and it was just a coincidence that Thomson was already here. If you really want to make a statement about his autonomy and power you'd also pick up his option. Charlie didn't get to pick any of his coaches when Gillick decided to keep him and I actually think it would be good if Fuld and Dombrowski tried to put some new voices into the mix.

A combination of the same old staff that has failed for four straight years under two different GMs and managers combined with the staff that got Girardi fired in New York doesn't excite me. (Or rather, Long is one of the guys Girardi cut loose in New York before his own time came to an end later.)

[bkox]

Salisbury reporting Phils are in talks to bring back Bobby Dickerson as infield coach

[allentown]

Marte would certainly be better, but also $10 million/yr more on probably a longish contract. Odubel at 30 could well put up a 2.5 rWAR with a year of play under his belt. I still think the Phillies should try to get him approved for ADD medication.

[zambonir]

I know the playoffs skew perspective, but it should not be that hard to find one Kike Hernandez type a year (nor, frankly, should it be that hard for Scott Kingery to be one). Almost 5 WAR for $7 million. 93 games in CF, 40some at 2B.

[EDmuch]

Our Kiki Hernandez was Brad Miller.

The UFA CF list is dismal this year. After Marte there is Chris Taylor &/then it really goes down hill. Juan Lagares, JBJ ….. it is not at all pretty.

[andyb]

Our Kiki Hernandez was Brad Miller.

Probably true, though the real theory is to put a good athlete in the role who can be at least average defensively anywhere you put them. The athleticism is a key part and Kingery could have done that. Chris Taylor has certainly played that role too though one wonders if he is aging out of the SS position. Hernandez gets to 5 WAR with 3 oWAR (which Miller could do with playing time) and 2 dWAR (which Miller can't do even at lesser positions).

Merrifield is another that plays that role and we have been eyeing him for years (probably to the point where we actually acquire him when he is more expensive and older).

[zambonir]

Yeah, Brad Miller does not rise to that level, and certainly didn't this year. 331 ABs and 0.4 WAR compared to 500 ABs and 5 WAR is a huge difference. And if he'd played more (on the wrong side of the platoon or anywhere but LF/1B) it wouldn't have necessarily looked better. Was a full-time DH last year.

Miller at this point is more like Greg Dobbs. Or Darin Ruf

I mean, if Miller could have played CF or SS they would have had to try it!

[bkox]

Sources: MLB clubs have been informed that the qualifying offer for free agents this winter is set at $18.4 million. That's down slightly from $18.9 million QO of last winter. Free agents extended a QO will accept or reject before the expiration of the current CBA Dec. 1.

— Buster Olney ( @Buster_ESPN ) October 12, 2021

[bigegypt0417]

Phillies hire hitting coach Kevin Long, who has long history with Joe Girardi

[Taudawg]

Interesting trade suggestion at Southside Showdown

The White Sox are expected to pick up Kimbrel's option at 16mil and then trade him. The writer Vincent Parise thinks a Mickey Moniak, Kyle Dohy and Gunner Mayer package would be a good exchange. Also suggesting the Sox may need to throw in some money - I completely agree. At 16 mil I would stay far away from Kimbrel. If we could get that number down to about 10, I would be tempted.