Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[zambonir]

Yeah I feel like Kimbrel's trade value is pretty low at that price. I was thinking something more like Marchan plus Didi (however the $ gets worked out).

Really we should just take on the salary and give up less. Haseley plus one prospect (but not two. Moniak is probably no more or less valuable than Haseley, so sure, could be him instead).

It's also kind of a huge risk, given his performance in 2019 and 2020, as well as with the White Sox (SSS). Seems crazy to me they'd even pick it up. But agreed if the # gets down to 10 (or even 13) there's value in that since other $10-13 million closers will want multi-year (or cost more in trade).

For all the talk of the Phillies needing a closer and the 2021 bullpen not being quite good enough, I still reckon spending $9 million on Bradley/Kintzler was better than spending $10 million on one guy.

[Taudawg]

Working Didi into a deal for Kimbrel would be a savvy move. The Sox might have a hole at 2B and could use another LH bat. Trading a bad contract for a risky one, add in a prospect (Marchan makes sense as the Sox are shallow on C prospects). That might work for both teams. Opens SS up for Stott or a one year deal for a glove like Andrelton Simmons while Stott gets some AAA time.

[allentown]

Agree on the just pick up the salary and give up less approach, if we go for Kimbrel. He has to be treated as high risk, high upside, because he's become a HR machine of late. Also a bit of a walk machine, and the two together are a terrible look, which the stratospheric K-rate can't disguise. I admit that many relievers are still plus at age 34, but Kimbrel hasn't been plus since 2018. I also doubt that 2022 is enough our year prospectively to give up much for a single-year, expensive closer. It's more a gamble that he bounces back and we get a good return at the trade deadline. I'd rather bet our $ on a SS. Kimbrel is a guy who might pitch 50 innings for us at high $ cost -- an unwarranted luxury for a team near the lux cap, which won only 82 games this season. Total of 1.9 WAR combined over past 3 seasons. Only 2.3 WAR in 2018. Unlikely he would give us more than 2 WAR for a large part of our cap space plus a prospect or 2. He'll wind up with a team that has a much better chance of reaching and advancing in playoffs than we do. That's the only destination which make value sense.

[bigegypt0417]

I think you have to almost dismiss kimbrels time with the white Sox since he was asked to be a setup man.

He was virtually unhittable as the closer with the cubs.

[allentown]

Actually, I see that as a red flag -- a guy who's going to pout and cost us games if moved to setup, which his age and recent performance might necessitate.

[zambonir]

Well, a lot of that depends on whether the team is operating as it it is a serious contender. Arguably, they never actually are if they don't exceed the CBT. A high-priced closer would certainly inch them in that direction, if they seriously expect to also be able to acquire a middle-of-the-order bat and a lead-off hitter (and even doing both those things leaves them filling either SS or one OF spot internally/cheaply, and they still probably need a mid-priced starting pitcher).

I think you are leaving out Kimbrel's 2021 - he put up 2.5 WAR this year alone and was MVP-level good for the Cubs. So much so that even his terrible performance for the White Sox still left him with elite numbers for the year (.905 WHIP). But that sort of variance, combined with his 2019-2020 numbers, is something you don't want to buy high on.

But BE I don't see how you can say it's okay to pitch more poorly as a set-up man, but can magically excel back in the closer role, especially given his performance in 2019 and 2020. If memory serves there were also injuries - another red flag.

The funny thing is Kennedy with the Phillies was pretty similar to Kimbrel with the Sox, broadly speaking. I would be more inclined to feel okay about Kimbrel simply because sometimes you don't thrive after being traded, not because of what inning he might pitch.

[allentown]

I think you are leaving out Kimbrel's 2021 - he put up 2.5 WAR this year alone and was MVP-level good for the Cubs.

I have his 2.5 WAR with the Cubs this year, but that is his only positive WAR in the past 3 years. He had 0.0 with the ChiSox, -0.1 in 2020, and -0.5 in 2019. He ended 2021 on a sour note, with a huge HR rate.

[Lucky_Beagle]

So other than a stretch this year with the Cubs Kimbrel could be outpitched by a replacement level pitcher making the major league minimum? Why would the Phillies want to pay millions for that let alone trade players?

[EDmuch]

I saw a rumor that Yanks may focus upon Marte for strong CF defense & excellent on base skills as a lead off hitter.

[kmc1019]

Kimbrel at $16M has zero or even negative trade value. I don't believe the White Sox will sign him, regardless of what has been rumored. And the Phillies should steer clear both of him at that price or including any prospects of value in a trade for him.

[zambonir]

lol guess I should have looked closer. But it's still hard to parse. Was this year a genuine return to form followed by a hiccup, or an indication of him heading back in the wrong direction. With relievers it's always hard to tell.

It will be interesting to see what the Sox do, they will certainly have some idea of the trade market before they have to do it, if not formally. If all of baseball believes that Kimbrel might not be any better than Hector Neris or Archie Bradley in 2022 they certainly aren't going to want him at $16 million.

No idea how the Phillies deal with CF but I think I'd rather gamble on Buxton's health (and trade price) than Marte's age (and Cutch-like FA deal).

[EDmuch]

But Buxton will also require a big UFA deal after this season. As I understand it, he would be a UFA after the 2022 season. So a trade for Buxton gets you only one year of performance. Then it would be back to negotiating a big UFA deal. This time for Buxton.

[andyb]

Buxton is probably signable to an extension and his injury history would suggest he would sign it a year early for a little less than what he might get on the open market. Maybe considerably less than he would get after a good year. The Twins were offering a fraction of his market value ($80 million for 7 years). He is probably a $20-$25 million player on the market. Something in the $15-$17 million range ($100/6?) might do it given his injury risk.

One does not trade for Buxton without signing the extension (note this is probably something we should have done with JT at the time of the trade and received a lower long term AAV as opposed fo short term lower AAVs).

[zambonir]

For sure you only trade for Buxton with an extension, at least in the off-season. Still far better to give a 28 year-old a 5-6 year deal than give a 33 year-old a 3-4 year deal. Of course you still have to pay the trade price which is hard for the Phillies to do.

This is also why the shortstop UFA market is probably the most attractive path, even at the very top of the market. Because they are not older players.

But I'll believe it when I see it in either case.

[bkox]

I just dont see how you can give a 5-6 year contract to someone that appears to be a much more talented version of roman quinn. Out of the last 3 full seasons (18,19 and 21) he has a total of 176 games played. So just more than one full season over 3 years.

Year: Injuries, Games played

2015: Sprained left thumb, 46

2016: Knee contusion/back spasms, 92

2017: Groin strain/migraines, 140

2018: Migraines/fractured toe/strained wrist, 28

2019: Wrist contusion/concussion/left shoulder dislocation/labrum surgery, 87

2020: Left foot sprain, 39

2021: Hip strain/Fractured Hand, 61

I mean it seems his bones are fragile and he has had issues on just about every muscle area. Do we really want to commit 100M?

[zambonir]

Also a very valid concern! But if that's reflected in the price (both trade and contract) you still have to consider it.

Thing is, a Byron Buxton who only plays 80 games a year is still twice as valuable as playing Odubel Herrera (or someone similar) for 160, and still not for twice as much money probably.

2017: Groin strain/migraines, 140 4.9 WAR

2018: Migraines/fractured toe/strained wrist, 28 -0.3 WAR

2019: Wrist contusion/concussion/left shoulder dislocation/labrum surgery, 87 3.0 WAR

2020: Left foot sprain, 39 2.1 WAR (in a 60 game season)

2021: Hip strain/Fractured Hand, 61 4.5 WAR

So yeah, risky, but so is the risk of Marte being another Cutch or Didi (including injuries). Ultimately I assume CF will be the weakest/cheapest bat in the line-up unless they get someone like Chris Taylor, and the focus will be more on SS and LF (even if it's a platoon).

[bkox]

I agree with the WAR argument and his value... but the other issue is the fact that those injuries all were occurring while he was young. He turns 28 in December. So a 6 year contact has a injury prone player 4 years in his age 30 and above years

[zambonir]

You just have to weigh that against the other options. If you are going to spend $15 million on a CF I think he's as good as any of the other options, and still possibly the best one (besides Marte other possibilities are guys like Chris Taylor and Bryant who can't necessarily play the position as well - a question about Marte eventually too - or trading for someone like Kiermaier who is also aging, and not much of a hitter).

The more we talk about it the more I think they will just bring in one mid-tier good glove vet and still give our own players a shot at winning half the job. But which ones?

[Austinfan]

If those are the options, just say no.
I think Dombro will be dumpster diving this offseason, which isn't the worst thing if you do it right.
You can add cheap role players who'll provide value IF you use them as role players.

[zambonir]

And that's surely how it will end up going for at least 1 of the 3 positions. Possibly 2. But if it's Vierling/Brad Miller in LF and Didi/Galvis at SS the CF will be a big FA. If they patch together CF they will go big on a SS or LF. They say they need a leadoff hitter and a middle-of-the-order hitter; you can't dig too deep in the dumpster for those things unless you have great scouting and managerial acumen, which, well...

You're on record as saying they should tank for three years so obviously you don't want to do anything to seriously improve from an 82-86-win team, or mortgage the future. And that's fair enough, but unless they are going to step up and start trading major pieces to concede this core will never win a ring, they have to at least try to get 5-10 games bettter.