Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[bkox]

Marte is a risk. He had a great year. But he turns 33 years old today. He had a great season this year. He has speed and good defense, But where is his break down point? Im assuming hes going to want at least a 3 year deal and probably in the Cutch range of 18-20M a year.. He had a career high in SBs and OBP in his age 32 year. Can he sustain that in ages 33-35? Or are we buying at the peak and at the start of decline?

[andyb]

Marte probably does get something close to that Cutch contract. Hard to say in this market but most teams pay based on the recent performance and that was good. One could also get Marte in CF for a year or two with the plan to move him to a corner when one of the younger players breaks through (Muzziotti/Rojas), hopefully within 2 years.

He is probably a good fit if the Phillies don't want to get into the top of the free agent market. Marte plus a closer plus a platoon bat plus a defense-first shortstop is definitely doable on the Phillies' budget.

[allentown]

I wouldn't want to go in the $18-20M range for Marte. He is now a slightly negative WAR CF and just came off the highest o-WAR of his career, which suggests somebody will overpay for his 2021 performance and find they've bought an under-perform 2022 and 2023. I think he goes to a team he can push over the top in 2022, for which we aren't a good bet as we need to add a net 6-7 WAR to make the playoffs. Shortstop is the position in greatest need of fixing.

[xogfog]

Would the Twins take Nola for Buxton straight up?

[bkox]

Would the Twins take Nola for Buxton straight up?

no.. if the Twins and Buxton cant come to an agreement on contract.. they will get a bunch of good prospects at the trade deadline

[Sabin]

We just gotta hope Bohm simply went through a hot start (2020) and then a tough period of adjustment (April/May) 2021 and was starting to come out of it (He hit .329 with a 763 OPS in June, and .296 with an .869 OPS in July. Then came the COVID break, and the demotion (which still seems like a mistake). Clearly he still has things to work on, particularly slug. Though, what if he's just a good hitter w/o 3B/LF/1B power? Where do you put him?

Muddying the waters a bit is his .217/.563 OPS performance in August. Granted, this was over only 50 PAs and he was a part timer for most of the month. (In fact, his last game as the FT third baseman was August 8... and here I thought the Great Board Crash of 8/10 was to blame for the snap of the eight game winning streak that began the month. )

I do agree that his demotion was a mistake in that it seemed particularly poorly timed given his progression, though I also share concern with his continued lack of power during that two month turnaround. You could make an argument for keeping a player whose power underperforms the norm for their position so long as you have others overachieving theirs and the former is giving you a plus on defense. We know the last one isn't happening with Bohm at third, but neither does the team possess enough power elsewhere in its lineup to compensate for the lesser bat.

[andyb]

It is not uncommon for a young player like Bohm to take a few years to grow into his power. The physical tools are there for power. His approach is more contact-oriented though and the only thing that will help that evolve is playing time. It is also not like a high OBP approach is not valuable potentially also.

I share everyone's doubts about his defense. Some of that is just average athleticism. Some is mechanical though and they should be able to improve that (the hitch every time he throws the ball is a mechanical issue). The Phillies are the most important judge here though and they believe in him at third. So we should plan for that in 2022 even if we'll need a backup. The reality may be, however, that the team is not going to win without a serious contribution from a young player and Bohm is the most likely source of that contribution.

[zambonir]

Muddying the waters a bit is his .217/.563 OPS performance in August. Granted, this was over only 50 PAs and he was a part timer for most of the month. (In fact, his last game as the FT third baseman was August 8... and here I thought the Great Board Crash of 8/10 was to blame for the snap of the eight game winning streak that began the month. )

I don't view those watters as muddy at all, but rather, a product of the COVID break. He was activated on July 23, and only got about two weeks to try and get back on track. I'm not sure he was even playing that badly during those two weeks (for instance, he hit almost 350 between the 23rd and the 31st so I suppose I'm wrong to say the break affected him), nor is it really clear why he was benched. I mean, it clearly seemed to be his defense at the time, and yet he was supposedly only working on his offense at AAA.

He does need to find that power, and to outhit his defense, but not sure the Phillies could really afford to give away the outs they did by going with players who were guaranteed not to hit instead of trying to get him back on track. Torreyes was big with RISP and in a few specific spots, of course, and maybe the better defense did win them half a game. None of it probably mattered in the end. It is certainly at least interesting that the teams' August struggles coincide with his benching, though they did still give him a few shots before the demotion.

[Sabin]

I don't view those watters as muddy at all, but rather, a product of the COVID break. He was activated on July 23, and only got about two weeks to try and get back on track. I'm not sure he was even playing that badly during those two weeks (for instance, he hit almost 350 between the 23rd and the 31st so I suppose I'm wrong to say the break affected him), nor is it really clear why he was benched. I mean, it clearly seemed to be his defense at the time, and yet he was supposedly only working on his offense at AAA.

To me it's the numbers over his last nine games in July that make it hard to pin his August performance solely on the COVID break. It may have had some kind of effect, but there's no direct statistical correlation since he posted a .320 / .833 OPS over his last 28 PAs in July once he returned.

[Austinfan]

I'm willing to give a clean slate to all our AAA prospects (well, maybe not Randolph, who still has a ridiculous K rate), and see what the coaching changes can do.

We don't need "breakout" seasons, if Hoskins returns, with Segura, Harper, JT, you have a core of a lineup, you just need to avoid black holes.

Cutch, Herrera and Miller started for us last year, they should have been no more than role players (Cutch in a platoon with a late inning defensive replacement, Herrera and Miller off the bench). Didi and Bohm were replacement level at best, when Torreyes is an improvement, you have serious issues.

The fielding was atrocious, lead by Cutch, Miller, Bohm, Hoskins, Harper, Knapp and Didi. You can carry one or two negative defenders if they hit, not six.

Vierling, Maton are upgrades just based on better defense and adequate hitting. Moniak, Marchan, Stott and maybe Muzzioti at some point, maybe Haseley could be improvements for the same reason. It's not a high threshold.

I think Dombro will be looking for affordable patches this offseason, the priority should be to land a closer, and resign Neris as a setup man, then Brodgon, Coonrod, SD, Hammer, Falter, Sanchez, Alvarado? can fill out the pen. One SP for depth.

Think he'll go shopping after the first wave of signings when prices drop precipitously and bargains are available - it's more about buying time for some prospects to mature, say a SS upgrade or CF so you don't have to rush Stott or Muzzioti. Maybe a LH LF to platoon with Vierling. A veteran catcher so Marchan and O'Hoppe don't have to be rushed.

Dombro doesn't have to hit HRs this offseason, a couple doubles will suffice.

[andyb]

Vierling, Maton are upgrades just based on better defense and adequate hitting.

Both players had negative dWARs. Both had sub-700 OPS numbers at AAA in over 200 at bats. I just don't know how we can say either player is an upgrade. Maybe they are inexpensive bench players that can fill a role, but they are not really good enough based upon past performances to guarantee more than that. Each are kind of defensive tweeners that are below average in CF and SS respectively. With bats where we don't have enough of a track record to see if they are much more than Ronald Torreyes.

[bkox]

What exactly makes Harper a defensive liabilty? His range? He was 8th in the MLB in assists. Ive seen runners hold up because of him. He rarely makes errors. And he goes hard after balls.

I understand that the dWAR says he is... but I have come to be suspicious of dWAR. My eyes say Harper is an at least adequate RF with a very good arm. Am I wrong?

[Austinfan]

Harper doesn't have good instincts, he's a top athlete who would be better with a CF that would allow him to cover a smaller amount of real estate - it's not lack of speed but his breaks on balls.

Phillies need Muzzioti/Rojas to take over CF in a year or two and give them someone who can cover for corner OF limitations. Guys like Vierling and Haseley would be plus LFs, and probably Moniak, but none have enough range to be more than average in CF.

I'd be looking at a one year patch, and focus on defense more than hitting in CF, because a CF with range could upgrade all three OF spots. Same reason if you're gonna start Bohm at SS, either Didi bounces back defensively or you need an upgrade - Galvis unfortunately is no longer a plus defender at SS.

[EDmuch]

AF, as I read what you wrote, I also remember that you wrote that you would not mind a losing record for three years in order to stockpile high draft picks. So forgive me if I do not put a lot of stock in your insights.

[andyb]

Over the years I think Bryce has become wall shy because that was a source of injuries early in his career. He does have good instincts. He just has become more Bobby Abreu out there with a goal of playing in as many of the 162 games as possible. This was really bad in his last year with the Nats and he did improve when he got to Philly (though he is still being smart with walls).

He definitely had a bad stretch midseason where he missed a few balls right at him. Could be fatigue. Could be some vision issues (the older age ones of focusing). Hard to say how this goes but as long as his athleticism holds for the next 3 or 4 years I think he'll be OK out there though I would not mind him at DH for 20 games a year.

[julio]

I have come to be suspicious of dWAR

As well you should be. All the defensive stat measures we have are.. weak? Some of them don't take account effectively of theoretical opportunities (measuring only plays made (RF measures) or plays made/nearly made (fielding percentage, errors, etc.) Others try to "count" theoretical opportunities, but at least mostly do so in a fairly subjective way (depending on a human scorer to decide whether a batted ball qualifies as one that "could" have been made by a given fielder).

Theoretically, if one had enough data, one might make a more-or-less objective comparison of fielders. But the necessary data? The exact position of the fielder at the time of the hit; the complete vector of the batted ball (direction, vertical angle, velocity); the time (seconds? tenths of seconds?) between the contact with the bat and the ball's arrival in some "zone" defined by the player's position at the time of the hit. At a minimum. How do you address pre-hit positioning? Arguably, better fielders use better positioning, as well as reaction to the batted ball, to make more plays... but fielders don't always get to control their positioning; coaches often direct that (shifts, OF positioning). How do you interpret your "zone" based results?

I treat all defensive metrics with some suspicion. If I look at several of them that are not based on the same subjective observers, and they all tell much the same story about a player - and if there's a lot of data, as in something like a full season's innings (1,400 innings or so) at a given position, then I suspect there's some likelihood of a real story there. But 200 innings? 85 innings? Meaningless. Players who look good on a couple of metrics, and bad on a couple of others? That's an issue with the metrics - and it's dangerous to decide you "like" one subset, because we all tend to "like" the metrics that support our pre-conceived ideas about things, eh?

[julio]

Over the years I think Bryce has become wall shy because that was a source of injuries early in his career. He does have good instincts. He just has become more Bobby Abreu out there with a goal of playing in as many of the 162 games as possible.

Bobby Abreu was the most valuable right fielder in Phils history. Harper may seize that mantle; I hope he does. But Abreu's tenure in Philadelphia was outstanding - and I just consider the "fans" who constantly denigrated Abreu (because he didn't run into walls or dive meaninglessly at occasional balls) as either idiots or bigots. Just my opinion, of course.

[andyb]

Mine too. Giving up 10 extra runs playing safe in RF is a nice trade to keep Bryce Harper in the lineup for 20 more games. I actually think he can come close to 162 now without too much fatigue if the DH is implemented.

[allentown]

Cutch, Herrera and Miller started for us last year, they should have been no more than role player

No, only Cutch started for us. The others were injury replacements. There will always be injuries and thus the need for injury replacements. If you don't have home-grown replacements who are ready and able, then Herrera and Miller are on the high side of what one can expect a team to have. Vierling, Maton, Haseley, Moniak, Marchan (if he doesn't start the year as the backup catcher) may be the cheap, capable injury replacements we lacked this past season. They all need t play regularly, so unless super springs, start in AAA. Muzziotti is not for 2022.

Of the bad fielders, Didi is the one we most need to replace as SS is so critical to groundball pitchers. Then a defensive CF. I'm not that worried about Harper's D -- he did some good work with his arm. Bohm and Hoskins need to play, but I hope there is a DH in 2022 and that will take care of one of them.

I agree there are some relievers from the farm who should help in 2022.

[allentown]

I just consider the "fans" who constantly denigrated Abreu (because he didn't run into walls or dive meaninglessly at occasional balls) as either idiots or bigots. Just my opinion, of course.

I agree and unfortunately, the fans were egged on by the Phillies announcers. I think Abreu 'earned' his Gold Glove as a thumb in the eye to biases Phillies fans and media from the national-level folks.