Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[Austinfan]

We should be. We went to the WS despite Harper at 75%, he should be about the same this season.

We added a premier FA SS, have a top young pitching prospect on the edge of the majors, and suffered no serious losses other than mediocre back of the rotation starters, replaced by a better 4th starter. We also jettisoned some bad veteran RPs and added depth there.

[zambonir]

Making the World Series as an 87-win 6 seed isn't necessarily repeatable. They could have just as easily lost to the Cards in two. But, they have indeed improved the roster, and if we separate the Girardi Phillies from the Thomson Phillies they were certainly an elite team. And rewarding the Phillies for succeeding where the Mets failed in October is also fair enough even if there's likely no real differene between 3-4-5.

I'd put Harper at more like 50% - combination of games missed and coming back from surgery, which may actually be harder than playing hurt (and the time he missed wasn't for this injury).

[Callison]

Ohtani. Why not? Get that checkbook out and bid like crazy. Otherwise he goes to the Dodgers or Yanks.

[zambonir]

Or the Mets. But he may have no interest in playing on the East Coast.

There is no question the Phillies will be associated with all the top FAs (Machado the other obvious one) again next year, whether there's truth to it or not. Especially if both Nola (maybe) and Hoskins (likely) are gone. But, it will also depend on what 2023 reveals - about Bohm, Marsh and Stott, about Harper and Castellanos, and about Rojas.

And if they extend Nola they will have already signed the best available FA (full-time) pitcher. I think if they really want to do that it's going to take a number that resembles the open market a lot more than a hometown discount.

[andyb]

Apparently the Mets are all-in on Ohtani and after the Correa deal fell through are prepared to go over $500 million. Probably a little NY Post rumor-mongering involved though it really makes sense for only the Dodgers and Yankees and Mets to compete at that level.

[allentown]

Getting to the WS with any number of wins isn't repeatable. A 92-win Phillies team won the WS. The Phillies strengthened that core over the next several years. The 93-win 2009 team again reached the WS and lost. The 97-win 2010 Phillies were eliminated in the NLCS. The 102-win 2011 team was eliminated in the NCLS. So, since 2007, the two strongest Phillies teams didn't make the WS, while the 3rd third and 5th strongest reached the WS and the 4th strongest won the WS. The year after our in-season, high-water-mark, 102-win year we learned that this achievement didn't even lead to a winning record the following year. So... nothing the prior year, nor even the current year's won-loss record, is at all close a close predictor of reaching the WS. It's hardly unprecedented for the best team in the league to not make the WS. A WS between the best team in each league seems the exception rather than the rule.

As in 2009 and 2010, I think the 2023 Phillies are a stronger team than the WS team which preceded them. And yes, that is no predictor of anything much.

[andyb]

Well maybe not the 2013 Phillies.

[allentown]

Oops, I'l fix that.

[zambonir]

As in 2009 and 2010, I think the 2023 Phillies are a stronger team than the WS team which preceded them. And yes, that is no predictor of anything much.

Agreed. But I reckon the Phillies making the World Series is the single biggest reason Bowden ranks them 4th in MLB, sandwiched between two teams that won 101 games last year but went out early in the playoffs. The roster is better than last year's, but not 14 wins better. And if they had lost to the Cards or Braves he'd probably have them 8th or 9th.

[allentown]

Probably a big factor, but other big factors are the team's record last season after the manager change and the addition of Turner. I'm not sure of Bowden's position, but a lot of pundits absolutely subscribe to the myth that a team with a lot of players who have 'played on the largest stage' know how to win.

[LoneStarPhan]

Mets Claim Sam Coonrod, Designate Khalil Lee

[andyb]

I think it is reasonable to assume the Phillies are better going into this season rather than last season. We did address weaknesses in CF and the bullpen. Stott is better than he was a year ago and Turner of course is better than Segura.

We have gone from a team predicted to win 84-86 games to one more in the 88-90 range. Bowden probably assumes a bit too much of a jump, but we all know his weaknesses as an old school guy where he might assume a bit much from the World Series. But we are better. Turner is very good (though expectations for Bryce are less than they were a year ago). The bullpen is definitely better. Less Kimbrel and more that Dominguez and Alvarado are now seen as core relievers with fewer questions.

[zambonir]

I'll be real curious to see the over/under win totals from the sports books. No question the team's record under Thomson counts for something and so does the upgraded roster (from Marsh to Turner to the relievers). What's striking about Bowden's rankings, FWIW (i.e. not much) is not that he rates them slightly above the Mets but also the Cardinals, Padres and Dodgers (as well as several AL teams.

To be fair, he also shows his work. He predicts Bohm or Marsh will have a break-out season, Castellanos will return to form, and that Painter will be a significant contributor. If each of those three things happen w/o any accompanying drop-offs (from the likes of Harper, Schwarber or a starting pitcher) I certainly would expect 95 wins or more. I think the Vegas number will probably be 91-92 though that is also based on amateur gamblers overvaluing the WS.

[VoteForKalas]

And the fact we got to the WS last season has zero bearing on whether we get there again this season.

Each season is a unique and evolving process. A million things can go awry from even the best set of plans.

[andyb]

The upside of losing Coonrod is gaining $775K more of room below the second luxury tax threshold. Coonrod would have gotten his money in the minors if he had not made the MLB team and to me he was probably behind a couple of other minor league callups to get major league time unless his stuff looked more like 2021 than 2022.

Cot's had us just under $14 million over the $233 million threshold before losing Coonrod. So now only like $13.2 million over. The second threshold is $253 million so we are like $6.8 million under that (and will likely need most of that for call-ups throughout the year since we have to pay the extra salary in addition to anyone else we might put on the IL.

[zambonir]

This is a much more fundamental issue with regards to baseball in the wild card era (and especially the new wild card era). Does it actually pay to try and build a 100 or even 92-win team on paper, or do you just need to be in the mix? Heck, three of the last four years you had teams with losing records at the halfway point in the World Series (with two winners), and in the shortened 2020 the Astros had a losing record and made it to the ALCS.

Teams like the Braves and Astros don't really have to worry about it because they have cheap internal talent. And the Mets and Phillies can afford it, and should be exceeding the CBT, so good for them. It's certainly better to win division titles and have a consistent chance every year than not, but the story of the Dodgers and the Yankees is also one of consistent disappointment (if a lot less disappointing than what we went through over that same period).

So yeah I hope Bowden is right and the Phillies are the 4th-best team in MLB. I hope they're better than the Braves too. But we still want the 2008 experience not the 2011 experience.

[VoteForKalas]

This is a much more fundamental issue with regards to baseball in the wild card era (and especially the new wild card era). Does it actually pay to try and build a 100 or even 92-win team on paper, or do you just need to be in the mix? Heck, three of the last four years you had teams with losing records at the halfway point in the World Series (with two winners), and in the shortened 2020 the Astros had a losing record and made it to the ALCS.

Teams like the Braves and Astros don't really have to worry about it because they have cheap internal talent. And the Mets and Phillies can afford it, and should be exceeding the CBT, so good for them. It's certainly better to win division titles and have a consistent chance every year than not, but the story of the Dodgers and the Yankees is also one of consistent disappointment (if a lot less disappointing than what we went through over that same period).

Agreed, being in the mix most years with the occasional deep run seems to be the popular formula in this era. The only issue I have with the Phillies approach is having to pay through the nose for that "in the mix" position because of repeated management and organizational failures.

Let's just say I'd much rather be the Astros and Braves than the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees and Phillies. They are destination teams and winners that are easier (and cheaper) to sustain due to their earned advantages.

Hopefully, Dombrowski & Co. get the Phillies on a much better talent evaluation, acquisition, development and retention track before they leave and we have to start all over again. It is certainly looking more promising than before last season, especially if Painter and some of the other prospects start to make their mark.

[Austinfan]

You also have to balance a top regular season team v a top playoff team.
A playoff team needs three things
1) players who aren't "homers," that is, are as comfortable playing on the road
2) top 3 starters who can compete in big games (4th will get a couple starts in the playoffs, 5th none at all)
3) a solid bullpen 1-6

Now in the regular season, 4th, 5th and 6th starters matter more, but it's worth giving up regular season wins to keep your top 3 rested, same with the back of the bullpen, you may lose some games pitching inferior middle inning guys to rest your top guys.

So to me, once you get past 90 wins or so, setting yourself up for a playoff run is more important than a few more wins unless you have a team full of homers or a home field advantage (Colorado, for example, maybe Fenway).

[allentown]

In addition, having some significant $ saved for fixes around trade deadline time may reduce wins in the regular season but can increase playoff performance. To go deep in playoffs, it seems essential to have your top 3 starters go into the off-season with plenty of gas still in the tank. Nola was spent prior to WS. He pitches too many regular season innings, as did Wheeler when healthy. Baseball is a team sport. Managers do their team no favors when they strain to allow a SP to record a complete game. There are generally negative consequences.

[Philsmania]

Add another NRI pitcher to the mix.

Phillies To Sign Kyle Hart To Minor League Deal