Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[zambonir]

This seems like something an analytics department should very easily be able to manage. The player is always going to want to stay on the mound and the manager has to make those calls in the moment but the front office can set some parameters.

Not sure it applies to last year's Phillies team, however, as they needed every single inning and win. A few more innings of Andrew Bellati or Nick Nelson over Wheeler and Nola and we might have been watching the Brewers in the playoffs.

[andyb]

The "in case they lose Plassmeyer when they have to waive him" player. LH starting deep depth.

[andyb]

Fangraphs on Aaron Nola. Not to scare people, but the 31-year-old pitcher with the best comps is Stephen Strasburg. Now Strasburg always had a higher ceiling and a much more significant injury history, but they both have produced 21 fWAR over the last 5 years and are the same age going into the extension.

The market has gotten a little more pessimistic on pitching contracts since Strasburg, but it is really hard to ague Nola should get less than Rodon (6/144) for instance. Really feels like 6 years and somewhere in the $150 to $160 million range is where his market is. There is a small discount for doing it a year early, though the Phillies would benefit a bit from the slightly lower backend AAV if they rolled this year into the extension.

Aaron Nola Is About to Get Very Rich, Somewhere

[Austinfan]

May also simply be building up the AAA starting staff, b/c if they're going to use options and rotate some young pitchers, they may want to limit their innings in AAA to keep them fresh for callups.

So you need arms that you can abuse.

[David_Criss]

Nola is 31 and has so many innings on his arm. I want to see him locked up, but don't want to see another Ryan Howard contract situation. I'd rather go (not my money) 3-year higher AAV with options than lock him into a 6-year deal. Is Nola the next Strasburg or the next Verlander in terms of durability? Verlander has been solid every season save his age 37 and 38 season being injured in 2020 and 21 but bouncing back at 39 pretty nicely.

Having said that if I read tomorrow he inks a 6/150 deal to stay in Philly, I'll be happy.

[andyb]

Pitchers Nola's age rarely sign that high AAV shorter contract. Agree that I might offer it. 3/100 instead of 6/155. Just not sure he would take it. His durability will get somebody to overpay on a longer deal. The issue with the Howard contract was that it was 2+ years too early and did not contain any sort of discount. Since the injury risk for any pitcher is more in a long term deal I really think the Phillies need some sort of discount to do a deal early. AAV discount on a longer deal is one way to do that.

[Callison]

With the Meats, Dodgers and Yanks gong all in after Ohtani, so should the Phils. If they can't sign him, they can drive the price up. There's some rare talent there, fans.

These other three teams, and more will follow, don't care abut the spending cap a whit. Means NOTHING to them. They're about winning the WS.

I don't know what it would take to sign him, but I'd teach the team to speak Japanese if it would make a difference.

While Ohtani considers his options, he's gotta be impressed by the Phils roster.

Anybody want a .325+/- power hitter who is also a top starting pitcher?

[zambonir]

These other three teams, and more will follow, don't care abut the spending cap a whit. Means NOTHING to them. They're about winning the WS.

Which doesn't correlate with spending - at a certain level - much at all!

If memory serves there was very little interest from Ohtani in the Phillies, or vice-versa, at the time of his original signing. Angels, Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers, Mariners and Padres were the teams that made offers. Given the Phillies' lack of history with Japanese players and the general trend of Japanese players preferring the Pacific time zone (with Yu the big exception but he wound up there eventually) it just seems like a real remote possibility.

They'd be more likely to finally get Trout.

As for driving the price up, the Phillies also have to be worried about the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers pursuing Nola. There really aren't three great starting pitchers on the market next winter so if I'm Nola I'm hitting free agency.

[Austinfan]

Nola will be interesting, one reason he may resign is I think he's not a "center of attention" guy.
So if the Phillies make a reasonable offer on an extension, he may want to stay in his comfort zone.
With Harper as the "man," and Wheeler as the "ace," Nola can do his thing without too much media attention or pressure.

I mean once you're talking $150M ($100+M after taxes and agent fees), additional money may not have that much value.
And he doesn't strike me as the type that needs more money for validation.

[zambonir]

I think that's true, though that's also why he seems like the kind of guy who might enjoy St. Louis or Arlington or Atlanta. He likes the Phillies and Philadelphia, no doubt. I just think the team is the one that's going to have to step up if they want to get it done early.

Of course they also might not want to... or at least, they won't truly be able to include this season in the length of the deal, because they probably want to keep his current CBT number this season. That's what the Red Sox just did with Devers which means he's signed for 10 years after this one, not 10 years including this one.

[Austinfan]

If he wants to "go home," Houston is the only destination, it's a 3-4 hour drive or so.
Arlington, St Louis or Atlanta are going to be slightly shorter flights, but I don't think saving a half hour of flight time will influence his decision.

[julio]

Houston is the only destination, it's a 3-4 hour drive or so.

To Baton Rouge: From Houston (per Google) is about 4:20. Arlington is about 6:30. Atlanta is a bit more than 8 hours; St. Louis is about 9:30. These are all one-day drives for a healthy guy in his 30s.

Or you can fly, although there's little benefit to flying if it's a 4-hour drive (between airport delays, connections, etc., it can take 4 hours even if the flight is 30 minutes in duration). The total flight times from most of these cities, factoring in the required time not in the air, is pretty similar - the actual flights will vary a bit in length (difference in air time from Houston vs. Atlanta is 30 minutes - 1:05 vs 1:35), but most of the total time is connections and airports, and that's pretty much the same for all of them.

St. Louis would be a longer flight, because there don't seem to be non-stops; and with layovers, it might still make more sense to drive (typical flight time from Expedia is 5 hours or more, with substantial layover between connections. Add ground time on either end, and you're pushing the driving time).

Pretty much a wash, actually - it's a travel day to get to Baton Rouge from any of these places.

[zambonir]

You really think he'd fly commercial?

Texas is also a choice for tax reasons (could pay for those charter flights too).

I reckon staying with a team that has its spring training in Florida might also be a factor, unless he wants to become a West Coast person. Very few of these guys live where they play. It's more about where they spend the winter, or, if they have kids, where their kids go to school. I honestly have no idea where Nola lives.

We already went through this with Cliff Lee of course. Texas was closer to Arkansas but in the end he came back to Philadelphia, even after they'd shipped him all the way to Seattle. But the Phillies had to pay to get him back, and I think they'll have to pay to keep Nola.

The truth is if there's a "Philly guy" who wants to stay here it's probably Rhys.

[Philsmania]

For all their success, the Astros and the Braves--two teams mentioned here--generally tend to avoid the deep end of the free agent pool, even when it includes one of their own players (Correa and Verlander for the Astros, Swanson for the Braves). Instead, they always find a way to reload with the farm. Ditto the also-mentioned Cardinals. The Rangers, on the other hand.... Don't count out the Padres--especially if Machado opts out and leaves. Their catcher can help a great deal to recruit Nola.

[zambonir]

Instead, they always find a way to reload with the farm.

So much so that they could also use their farm to get Gerrit Cole and Verlander (though they did re-sign him the first time).

The Nola brothers playing together is certainly something to consider but I'm not so sure Austin will even be on the Padres by 2024.

[Aquapong]

I think the Phils are hoping their prospects play well enough that they can sell letting Nola walk. Hoskins and Kimbrel are the only other big money coming off the books this offseason and a Nola extension taking up about half that money doesn’t leave a lot to make other improvements.

[andyb]

The scenario to let Nola walk really requires at least 2 of our big 3 pitching prospects to look like rotation keepers by the end of this season. I am very hopeful that Painter will do that, but also thinking that Abel needs the full year in the minors and if we see McGarry it might be late season bullpen action (to conserve his innings like last year, not to change his role yet).

I think they go hard at Nola to get an extension during Spring Training. They should want the lower long term AAV too of signing him this season. Remember we are already paying the repeater tax this year and even if we hit the second barrier ($253 million) in the competitive balance threshold that only means a higher tax. It is the 3rd barrier ($273 million) that carries draft penalties. Adding $6-$8 million to this year's AAV to save $2 million in future years is a good deal.

It would be hard to get under the limit next season with Nola but not impossible. They probably do not have to replace Hoskins and Kimbrel. Bigger question is whether Seranthony and Alvarado need extensions I think. Plan B might also mean moving Castellanos and eating part of the contract I guess. That would depend on someone like Rojas or CDLC developing though.

[zambonir]

Certainly Walker was Nola insurance, but they would still probably have to sign another Walker type to round out the rotation (and also become Wheeler insurance).

They really shouldn't have to spend a dollar on free agent position players next year (well, not major dollars) unless one or more of the young players crashes, and/or Castellanos is truly washed. Ease Rojas into the OF rotation and sign a platoon corner OF. Live with whoever you put at 1B. It's a better team with Nola than no Nola and a Hoskins replacement.

Of course if one or more of the young players crashes and/or Castellanos is truly washed they'll also have to address that in July.

[David_Criss]

2024 without Nola is:
Wheeler (1 year remaining) - do they extend him, one year after a massive Nola contract?
Walker (3 years remaining)
Suarez
then arms that may or may not enjoy their first full MLB season this year in: Falter, Sanchez, Painter, Abel

The Phillies handed Wheeler a 5/118 deal with injury questions and nowhere near a Nola track record.

Total rabbit hole here, but I am sitting here thinking this is a great problem to have. Having been a Phillies fan for more than 3-decades I remember a lot of the earlier Philliesphans posts weren't can we get Harper, etc. It was what can we get in a trade for Rolen or Schilling and others. So glad to be in a different Phillies era.

[allentown]

Plan B might also mean moving Castellanos and eating part of the contract I guess. That would depend on someone like Rojas or CDLC developing though.

The Phillies don't really need Castellanos (well, perhaps while Harper is on IL). We made the WS last year with Castellanos putting up a negative 0.1 WAR -- below replacement level. Rojas has the potential to add a new dimension to team with his speed and D if he has even passable offense. If not, a slightly negative WAR OF is not hard to replace relatively cheaply.

The big thing which moving Castellanos depends on, even if the Phillies pay half his remaining $, is that he performs a lot better this year than he did last year. I think that is likely, but far from a sure thing. In your trade scenario, it is Castellanos, not Rojas, who is the huge question mark. He needs a significant improvement to be tradeable for enough future $ savings to matter. Ryan Howard bounced back a tad in 2013 to record a positive 0.5 WAR. He still wasn't tradeable.