Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[Aquapong]

It’s never too early to play arm chair GM. Certainly we’ll be reigning WC’s by then and we can retool for our title defense.

Cots updated their spreadsheets already and pegs us at $61 mil under the CBT for 2023 at the moment. This included the arb estimates for arb eligible players. The three options we have are Elfin, Segura, and Nola. The first two are easy declines I think and the last an easy pick up. With the options and buyouts for those guys. We’re at $43 mil below the threshold.

Coonrod could be non-tendered if they believe his performance is not still injury related. But the big decision may be Hoskins. Do we retain him at ~$11 mil or non-tender/trade? Aside from a couple of swings in the last few weeks, I would argue he’s a liability more than an asset. With Hall waiting in the wings, it seems like the right time.

So we have ~$54 mil for roster spots. It’s easy to envision us fishing for a top flight SS. We need 1 starter, maybe 2. We don’t want more than 1 long contract however to allow our prospects room when they are ready. We probably need 1 or 2 relief pitchers as well.

Overall we should feel pretty good about going into next season. With a few additions, we’ll be primed for another deep playoff run.

[tom81]

I would argue he’s a liability more than an asset.

Hoskins put up a 3.1 BWAR & 2.2 FWAR, those numbers would argue against you.

[BaseballCat]

Hoskins is going to be a tough call. I would love him to stay as I love him as a person and like him as a player. We need to start improving the defense. I don’t thing Schwarber or Castellanos are answers there except for a few games. We have to hope Harper can go back in the field. Rhys may just be an expense we can have for much longer. In the long run pitching and defense are the way to go. Short run - lets ride it four more wins!

[bkox]

Does anyone know whats up with Harper's elbow?

I ask because hes signed up to play in the world baseball classic and he signed up for that after he knew about the elbow injury. No way he can get TJ surgery and be ready to DH by March right?

[andyb]

Assume there is still a chance rest and some sort of platelet treatment might still work. The Phillies have been pretty quiet about it but I was kind of thinking there was a chance of TJ surgery and a May debut no matter what. Timeline would be a little longer than Hoskins because of the World Series (which is a good tradeoff).

[Aquapong]

Ok. But do we think Hall can put up the numbers to equal that for far cheaper allowing us to upgrade a position of need?

[andyb]

I think I am more intrigued by a Sosa/Maton combo possibility than Hall (likely also with a platoon partner). If Harper can play the field it gives more room to play Hall, but he also has issues against LHP no matter what and a pretty low OBP. As much as I like Hall I think he is more an injury replacement than a real solution to part of the 1B question.

A big question (after all the SS question) is whether we sign another starter. Maybe coming to some sort of deal with Eflin where he could get a chance at starting but move to the bullpen later if the knee issues crop up would be best. We could start with Eflin and Falter in the 4/5 slots and then hope the kids (McGarry, Painter, Abel) can win one or two spots as the season progresses. We still get an extra year of control by starting prospects in the minors. The ROY draft pick bonuses seem really hard to get so there is still more of an incentive to start pitchers in the minors, especially if they have an innings limit.

[schillingfan]

I said this in the game thread, but I really believe Harper and Hoskins have major bro mojo going together. After home runs they always hug and bump foreheads. I would get rid of Castelllanos, which would let Hoskins do some DH assuming Harper can play the field. We would have to pick up a bunch of his money, but a trade of Castellanos would be my vote. You don’t non-tender Hoskins. He has trade value.

My off-season priority would be resigning Nola to a big contract.

[zambonir]

But it IS TOO EARLY!

I know, slow week after having so much baseball.

Hall only works if Castellanos is the other 1B. He's not an everyday player, nor is he really a prospect (age-wise).

It would be nice to move Nick but I don't think they will/will be able to. He's still Dombrowski's guy and he has to stay to rebuild his value if nothing else.

Rhys isn't going to be non-tendered, and I'll be surprised if he's traded simply because his value as a player for you + a draft pick is still higher than a trade. I would hope to DH him more, and play Schwarber at 1B, and try and get some better LF defense.

I still don't think Alec Bohm is dead lock above-average everyday 3B either. That he's come a long way is not the same as being plus. It would be great to play him at DH and 1B sometimes too (allowing Sosa --- or, well, Trea Turner -- time at 3B) but he has to have the bat for that as well.

[BostonRoss]

I can’t imagine trading Castellanos. We’d have to pay nearly his entire salary,

[phillychuck]

Trading Castellanos now would be trading very low. Bad strategy. Wait for a bounce-back year in 2023 before even thinking about it.

[Aquapong]

I’m not sold on Bohm either. But between him, Stott, Sosa, Maton, Hall, and a free agent infielder, I think we’d have the infield covered. Maybe Bohm would platoon with Hall at 1b and get some time at 3b as well.

I don’t think anyone would want Castellanos unless we were paying almost all his salary at this point. We don’t have much choice other than to hope he bounces back. Maybe there’s a high dollar pitcher who is at least eating innings we can trade him for relatively straight up?

[flyers19rw]

Better to be proactive than reactive. The defense has to improve. The club hit their way past it this season but one can’t count on that in the future. Move on with Hoskins and Segura. Sign Turner for SS and move Stott to 2B. Schwarber to first. Castellanos to LF. Harper back to RF. Use available cash for a SP and BP.

[Aquapong]

Is Schwarber athletic enough for 1b?

[phillychuck]

Is Schwarber athletic enough for 1b?

He began his career as a c catcher--pretty good glove but an unreliable arm moved him to the OF...played 1B a few times for the Red Sox. If you give him the position he'd be fine. I think you have to ride with Rhys one more year, though, unless someone blows you away with an offer.

[zambonir]

Is Schwarber athletic enough for 1b?

Is Hoskins? Is Hall?

LF is considered more difficult than 1B. As Hoskins himself showed!

[xogfog]

As SF said, Hoskins is Harper's guy, no way they trade him. He just posted a 30 HR season and was basically healthy all season. He was probably the MVP of the NLCS if Harper doesn't have the swing of his life. He is certainly a top 15 overall 1B if not top 10. We have young pitching coming up maybe as early as to start next season with McGarry and mid-season for Painter, with Abel not far off. I have no information to prove this, but my gut says Rhys would take less money to stay in Philadelphia if they offer him a new contract. Let him play next year, see if he stays healthy and puts up similar numbers. If Harper is able to play the field I think they will rotate DH's between Schwarber, Castellanos, Hoskins, Harper and Bohm.

[Dirk41]

If they can get a starting pitcher for Hoskins, that would be cool. It's hard to envision this team without Swanson or Turner at short next year. Stott to third or second and Bohm to first.

[xogfog]

I think if you get Swanson or Turner or even Correa, Segura is gone and Stott to 2B.

[bkox]

Alec Bohm had one good month. His July he had a 1.088 OPS. May, June, Aug, and Sept were ALL under .700 OPS.

That good month was helped by an otherworldly .469 BAbip.

I have no idea how to figure WAR but It would seem he would end up being replacement level at an offense first position like 1B unless he has a significant improvement.