Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

BostonRoss 2022-10-26 12:49:51 UTC #21

Schwarber was quite a bad first baseman for the Red Sox. Worse than Hoskins. I think he’s a better outfielder than Hoskins, too (though that’s setting the bar really low…).

zambonir 2022-10-26 12:54:40 UTC #22

Yeah, no matter what, Bohm is a work in progress. A good enough 3B for now. Still might not be good enough in 2025 (or worth his salary by 2026). And has to hit a lot better regardless of where he plays. Certainly that Austin Riley-type breakout season has yet to happen. But it could. His bat profiles most like a 2B; if they sign a SS and Stott is a bigger offensive power I suppose Bohm could just slide into that Pedro Feliz role where the middle IFs are bigger hitters than the 3B, albeit w/o the plus plus defense. Of course that's literally what Sosa could turn into too.

I don't think Hoskins and Boras are giving any hometown discounts, but it's ultimately up to Rhys. I think it's more likely he gets the Ryan Howard treatment - not an historic extension, but one that still wouldn't be team-friendly - than gets the boot. And most likely he just leaves. The good vibes of this run will keep him here next season but not beyond.

Bryce can't have everything. They signed JT. They drafted his friend (good pick!). If they go get Turner he may have to say goodbye to Rhys, just like he himself chose to say goodbye to Werth and Turner.

Philsmania 2022-10-26 13:46:43 UTC #23

For those who can get through the Inquirer's paywall, this article explains how Hoskins has embraced Philadelphia even to the point of living in the city (Fishtown) year-round. For whatever it's worth.

zambonir 2022-10-26 13:59:25 UTC #24

Fishtown!

There is no question. He has been the face of the Phillies through a lot of tough years, and is our homegrown pride and joy (along with Nola. It really is too bad Neris isn't still here, IMO. Except he is!).

As a player, he is fairly similar to Burrell (though Burrell had much higher expectations as a #1) - he is what he is, which is good, but we spend a lot of time pining for what he is not, i.e., a perennial All-Star or better defender.

Philsmania 2022-10-26 14:41:39 UTC #25

I agree that it is a shame to some extent that Neris is not a part of this on our side too though he was even more of a lightning rod than the other two have been. Neris was his usual mostly-reliable self this year, generally in line with what he put with for us though he did have a career best WHIP.

allentown 2022-10-26 15:04:19 UTC #26

That's also my number one priority

VoteForKalas 2022-10-26 15:48:17 UTC #27

And Brogna was Rolen's guy....players do not make good talent retention or acquisition decisions normally

Getting Harper's input is fine, but I trust DD to make the correct decision on Hoskins

zambonir 2022-10-26 17:21:31 UTC #28

Nola apparently does love it here even though he's not visibly in the city (or a city kid) a la Cole and Chase (and apparently Rhys). I suspect he's a tough sign, he gave the Phils a discount (in exchange for security of course) before and probably needs a pre-emptive/market rate offer now to keep him from actually going on that market next year.

Always scary to do a deal like that, there are more Lees and Halladays than Verlanders or Charlie Mortons, but great pitchers do exist in their mid-30s.

schillingfan 2022-10-26 20:31:17 UTC #29

Yes but Hoskins hitting is above average for a first baseman and Rolen didn’t sign a Phillie for life contract. I’m not saying he’s untouchable or that Bryce should have that kind of influence, just saying the Phillies will not actively try to trade him this off-season.

Philsmania 2022-10-26 20:36:28 UTC #30

Nola's a Louisiana guy. Braves don't usually wade too deep into the free agent pool. Rangers may be in a position after next year to try to move the needle. Astros? They often let position players walk (Correa, for example) but do sign pitchers to lasting contracts.

flyers19rw 2022-10-26 21:54:52 UTC #31

You'd hate to see Harper put in a choose one or the other situation but if it's Turner or Hoskins what would he do? Hoskins presently is on a bit of a hot streak but that is his history; runs cold then hot. He's a great guy and all but his defense costs runs and at times games. It's a real killer for the other IFers when the first baseman can't be trusted to field throws, even poor ones. In the SD series, his bat won a game but his glove was almost responsible for losing one. Good teams can't have that.
Moving Schwarber from the OF to 1B would help all over the field. When he was a catcher, his glove was never an issue. It was his arm that got him out from behind the plate. An IF of Bohm, Turner, Stott and Schwarber would be a definite improvement. Also getting Schwarber out of the OF, where his range is an issue, and going with Castellanos, Marsh and Harper is s step up there as well. Moving Hoskins and Segura frees up the cash to nab Turner and a back of the end SP.
This season has been a nice ride. Yet DD has to make the moves that can keep the train rolling. It should be an interesting off season.

allentown 2022-10-26 22:12:44 UTC #32

Not a serious problem to keep Hoskins next season, but that likely results in losing him for nothing, unless Castellanos has a great 2023 and becomes tradeable. If I had to choose between Turner and Hoskins, it has to be Turner. I hope Harper is enough of a realist and as into another championship run to think the same.

To me, the best outcome is the Phillies trading Hoskins this off-season for a younger pitcher who can help us and signing Harper.

Building a team that is going to the WS earns DD a ton of kudos, but dumping $100 mill on Castellanos was a bust, at least in 2022, as he put up a minus (-0.1) bWAR this season and is the real reason we are talking about Hoskins possibly not having an intermediate/long-term future on the Phillies. It was an addition which led to an unbalanced team. Far better if DD had spent those $ on pitching. Likely that would have meant a small pitching addition when Castellanos was signed, adding one of the SP available short term at the deadline, and spending the big $ this offseason to get a longer term SP.

I'm still stunned, both about how much impact the change in managers had and about this Phillies team being in the WS (and also about how likely this then seemed going into the NLCS).

Mac 2022-10-27 02:44:13 UTC #33

They should sign Hoskins to a backloaded deal to help give them the financial flexibility in the short term.

He wants to get paid, sure, but he also wants to be a Phillie. I feel like he would go for it and probably take a hometown discount to some extent.

allentown 2022-10-27 02:50:38 UTC #34

That doesn't help. The luxury cap hit is based upon the average annual value of the contract. On the plus side, the defensive metric says that while Hoskins has negative defensive value, he was better in 2022 than in 2021. Still, do we want him beyond 2025?

The problem with Hoskins will be length of contract. That assumes they can unload Castellanos after next season. The team really has no need for all three of Schwarber, Castellanos, and Hoskins, although the situation will be improved if Harper can return to RF.

Mac 2022-10-27 03:09:53 UTC #35

Absolutely, Bryce has to return to RF - get surgery or something right after the WS if that's what needs to be done.

I didn't know that about the AAV being the lux. tax metric - that's interesting. I suppose it would at least help the balance in terms of how much they were materially paying him each year.

They are going to make a boatload of money this offseason and next year - they've gotta reward their heroes, right? Rhys is still in his prime and will be for a couple years now.

You don't think they feel compelled to make it work with Rhys somehow after this postseason?

zambonir 2022-10-27 03:27:35 UTC #36

The Phillies are a Boras team now, and that could mean Rhys stays. But it also doesn't mean he's giving a discount.

I don't believe Rhys's trade value is that much higher than a comp pick. He can't fetch a young (major-league ready) starter. He can maybe fetch you another Kyle Gibson. Unless you pay half his salary and if you're going to do that you might as well pay him to play for you.

If they do trade him and move Schwarber to 1B I still don't want Castellanos anywhere near LF, except part-time. Unless he hits like he did last year of course.

Austinfan 2022-10-27 03:30:09 UTC #37

They should keep Hoskins, then let him walk in FA.
By the end of next season they'll have a better read on Marsh, Rojas, De La Cruz, Muzzioti and Ortiz.

I don't think Middleton wants to exceed the cap two years in a row, so given their pitching needs, a play for a big name starter is probably off the board. Can't count on Painter, Able, McGarry quite yet.

VoteForKalas 2022-10-27 12:35:29 UTC #38

You're probably right, I just do not advocate a player, any player, having authority to call personnel shots over the GM or others more qualified to make those decisions. I'm strongly against the NBAization of MLB in that regard.

zambonir 2022-10-27 12:47:41 UTC #39

I don't think Bryce has ever entered into NBA territory. But it wouldn't be realistic to think he doesn't have a voice (overtly or not). And even with Dombrowski having re-oriented the power center of the front office more correctly, Boras, both as Bryce's agent and as Scott Boras still has a direct line to the owner too. In the NBA the agents only have power because they are stars too. In MLB a guy like Boras still has more power than his clients.

That said there was no indication anyone but Dombrowski started the Castellanos talks.

Really the biggest personnel moves that Bryce likes he had nothing to do with. They traded for JT in part to make the team more attractive to him but he wasn't here yet. Hoskins obviously is already here. He pretty overtly campaigned for them to bring JT back, and for them to bring Stott to the majors. I kind of doubt he'll be holding up a "Sign Rhys" sign at the parade especially when Rhys is still signed.

If Rhys doesn't want to hit the open market I can easily see them doing a deal amidst all of this good will. But he certainly didn't sign with Boras - not his first agent - thinking he'd forego free agency when it finally came.

andyb 2022-10-27 13:33:42 UTC #40

I think Bryce is just pushing for them to do everything they have to do in order to win.