Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

zambonir 2022-10-27 13:52:56 UTC #41

Well everybody wants to win! Reasonable people can disagree about the best way to do that/allocate resources. But clearly Bryce would be fine if his best friend loses his shortstop job (albeit only to go back to 2B) and if they signed one of the star SS free agents to play 3B I doubt he'd be losing too much sleep over its impact on Bohm either.

Hoskins, for all his faults, just happens to be a more elite player than those guys. All for offense, yeah, but 3.1 WAR is nothing to walk away from either. He's well ahead of Schwarber because Schwarber's defensive WAR/position makes him even worse, so in a way it's Schwarber, as much as Castellanos, who you'd be accomodating by moving on from the guy who's only got a year left.

Bryce very much knows this is a business.

allentown 2022-10-27 14:21:21 UTC #42

No, 'reward their heroes' has been the Phillies curse. I remember the dark years after the team caved to fan and media demand to reward their heroes Daulton and Dykstra. Shot the budget and those guys were on downside of their careers. We know relievers are generally up-and-down, especially after up leads to overuse, yet gave Lidge a multi-year deal as reward. Overly sentimental teams aren't successful.

zambonir 2022-10-27 14:41:29 UTC #43

Just as bad was when they doubled down on the '08 core in 2012 despite dumping Vic and Pence, thereby delaying the rebuild another 1-2 years.

But, this is a different moment. And there is obviously still value in a homegrown hero. It would just have to be a team-friendly deal.

To me the choices are:

Enjoy this season and the next, thank Rhys for the memories, and take the draft pick (if he won't sign a team-friendly extension he won't take the QO, though if he did that might be okay too).
Trade Castellanos. Doesn't matter how or for what. But even if you do it, you don't really want to then replace him with more years and $ to Rhys (especially if you're paying some of Nick's). That's a move that merely keeps you from trading Rhys this off-season.
Trade Bohm and extend Rhys. If we're not being sentimental about an entirely different player! Yeah, it would be unpopular, and you're giving up a younger cheaper regular. But you can also get twice as much trade return for him. And there would be other ways to fill 3B. You could also keep Segura (on a cheaper new deal) in this scenario (and/or sign Turner to play 3B instead of SS).

Mac 2022-10-27 14:46:33 UTC #44

I don't disagree with you on the perils of rewarding heroes on the back 9 of their career, you make very good and reasonable points - but do you think that applies to Hoskins given the circumstances?

He's 29 - if they were to give him a 4 year deal, buy out an arbitration year, we'd get him for his age 30, 31, 32, and 33 seasons. Given the fashion in which he provides value, I wouldn't anticipate him falling off a cliff from a production standpoint during that period of time. And how can you quantify his leadership and what he means to the clubhouse?

And then you add a potential hometown discount into the equation ...

What makes all of this difficult is the Castellanos thing....but making a deep World Series run - and smashing merchandise records like they are - has to seriously take some of the financial sting out of paying the luxury tax.

I have a hard time swallowing the idea of trading away a central piece of this team, in his hitting prime, the offseason after they finally break through and truly come together as a unit - I am glad I am not Dave Dombrowski! Ultimately, I trust his judgment, but I would be disappointed to lose Rhys.

zambonir 2022-10-27 15:58:53 UTC #45

I still don't trade Rhys. But I think he's going to be looking for Freddie Freeman (six years $162 million) money. Does he deserve/is he going to get that? No. But I don't think he's taking a four-year $80 million deal either.

I also wouldn't overstate his leadership and clubhouse presence. Those things did not exist before this year, based on results from 2018-2021. And they signed two ill-fitting free agents (in total) in part because the clubhouse lacked leadership.

Not saying he isn't an important teammate but not saying he's irreplaceable either.

I don't think they are afraid of the luxury tax because they can't afford it. But in terms of both philosophy and flexibility they don't want to go over it two years in a row. Or continue to be a team that only wins with free agents and a Top 5 payroll all the time.

Mac 2022-10-27 17:22:39 UTC #46

Good points - although, I disagree about the clubhouse presence not existing before this year. He has long been called the heartbeat of the team...we just haven't been able to break through until now.

That said, the perception of his leadership has certainly been aided by the winning and addition of Schwarber. When building a culture, it takes a certain number of like-minded guys to hit a threshold of critical mass - he's a big part in that equation.

If you are right about him wanting - and perhaps receiving in FA - a Freeman-type deal, there is no chance on Earth I'd give him that kind of money. That would be in-line with what allentown was saying about going overboard to reward our heroes - whether that's giving them more money than they deserve or signing them past their physical prime.

How in the world could he (or we) justify a contract that far in excess of what Schwarber received?

If that is indeed the case, then we have to unload him this offseason, as much as I'd hate to see it. He certainly won't be pleased playing into the last year of his contract next year and I could see that having ripple effects on the team.

BostonRoss 2022-10-27 17:47:33 UTC #47

I don't think rewarding the heroes is a uniquely Phillies thing. The Red Sox signed Chris Sale, Steve Pearce, and Nathan Eovaldi after their 2018 heroics and have little to show for that investment. And the Red Sox aren't very good right now.

On the other hand, the Braves let Freeman walk, and the Astros are in the World Series after letting many stars go, including Springer, Cole, and Correa.

BostonRoss 2022-10-27 17:51:18 UTC #48

Regarding Boras, I am reminded of when Jason Varitek was a free agent. He basically told Boras not to sign with anyone but the Sox, but kept that quiet as Boras used the other teams to drive up Varitek's price. When they got the Red Sox to the magic number (or perhaps decided they couldn't get any more), he signed.

I'm not sure Hoskins would do the same thing, though.

zambonir 2022-10-27 20:24:11 UTC #49

Gosh, who was their GM?

flyers19rw 2022-10-27 22:50:49 UTC #50

I don't believe that trading Castellanos is a sensible plan. For one, he'd be sold low which is not good trading policy. Secondly, signing a FA and then dumping him early on is his contract would be a bad indicator to future FAs that the Phillies might wan to sign.
OTOH, Hoskins is a soon to be 30 year old player. Extending him would be taking him into his early 30's through to his middle of that decade year. Only a decline could be expected. If there is a market for a 30-ish first baseman this off season that could net salary relief and a decent arm, it's the move to make. Too frequently in the past the Phillies have held on to popular players who had passed their shelf life. Thanks Rhys but it's time to move on.

zambonir 2022-10-28 13:18:04 UTC #51

This certainly makes the case that no one wants him to go (though ironically the most quoted player is Kingery).

(it's not paywalled)

phillychuck 2022-10-28 13:49:29 UTC #52

I've posted this before, but this was one of my most fun months as a fan even though the team wasn't good at the time:

I still think he's my favorite player on the team. I hope they do keep him around for at least one more year.

zambonir 2022-10-28 14:17:39 UTC #53

I'll admit I was not completely sold on the DD hire (it's funny that he and MacPhail are best friends and MacPhail essentially led the search for his own replacement). According to this Phillies are already working on an extension (which would presumably also remove the Nashville out clause. I wonder if they'd give him an ownership stake, as Gillick and Monty - and obviously Giles - all had as Presidents).

Lots of other fascinating details in here, from MacPhail's praise of the phamous phamily atmosphere (he recalls singing Christmas carols with the owners even when the team had lost 100 games) to the revelation that they started talking about firing Girardi during the 2021 season.

Philsmania 2022-10-28 15:00:19 UTC #54

Phillies extend Dusty Wathan's contract.

zambonir 2022-10-28 15:54:57 UTC #55

Wonder if the Royals told him he was out or if he took himself out.

Meanwhile I haven't seen any concrete reports about Long and three of the five jobs he was mentioned for speculatively are done (and Royals probably close).

EDmuch 2022-10-28 18:36:28 UTC #56

Very interesting article about DD.

schillingfan 2022-10-28 21:24:55 UTC #57

Brad Lidge said on ESPN radio that he heard Girardi was way too uptight as manager. Castellanos told him that Girardi had only talked to him twice the whole time he was a Phillie, which included the day he was signed. He said you have to have fun to play good baseball. I think Thomson is a lot like Manuel, old school guy, but humble and caring about his players.

zambonir 2022-10-28 22:17:09 UTC #58

I think managing the Yankees must have broke Joe. Or maybe the Astros' cheating did.

Or maybe he was just always like that as a player, a fancy college boy (we went to the same college) who couldn't ever be one of the guys.

phillychuck 2022-10-29 00:10:17 UTC #59

Girardi was always very pleasant and informative when they mic'ed him up in Spring Training. Maybe he related better to the broadcast crew than he did to the players. Whatever, I wish him well.

phillychuck 2022-10-29 04:01:39 UTC #60

Marsh with another bad break on a CF fly ball. I'm hoping Rojas arrives quickly--even if he doesn't hit a lot he's a GG quality fielder with top of the charts speed.