Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

Philsmania 2023-01-31 00:49:25 UTC #984

I never really liked Coonrod after he refused to participate in the ceremony held on Opening Day regarding racial justice. Not sad to see him go.

BaseballCat 2023-01-31 15:40:03 UTC #985

The Athletic 2023 fan poll results. Sorry it is behind pay wall.

zambonir 2023-02-01 01:44:06 UTC #986

A year ago, The Athletic surveyed Phillies fans and only 1.8 percent believed the club was headed in the right direction. Now? Among the 2,489 people who responded last week, 54.9 percent see the Phillies moving in the right direction.

Still pretty incredible (and completely fair in both cases).

bkeich 2023-02-01 01:56:51 UTC #987

They WERE not headed in the right direction. Girardi was just a complete failure.

Thomson's magic might not last, as I don't think anyone really can explain it, but for some reason a bunch of guys excelled under his management.

zambonir 2023-02-01 02:01:51 UTC #988

But it wasn't just the managerial change. Clearly the front office is a big upgrade but they hadn't proved that a year ago. And Middleton approving the luxury tax also hadn't happened.

bkeich 2023-02-01 02:03:08 UTC #989

Very true, although signing Castellanos was a miss (so far), signing Schwarber was a HUGE success.

That said, even going over cap the team was failing with Girardi and succeeded without him

zambonir 2023-02-01 02:12:34 UTC #990

Yeah, I'm still not sure DD's two big splash moves will be among his best. Could go either way (Schwarber could have two great year left/Castellanos could bounce back, or there could be injury/decline ahead for Kyle/Castellanos could be done). But he showed himself to be very nimble with all the other moves. And actually firing Girardi instead of writing off the season was no small thing. Also super-lucky that he didn't fire him in the off-season, even though that was clearly a mistake, because Thomson probably wouldn't have been the next manager had he done so.

Thomson also succeeded because he had nothing to lose, so he could play the young guys (especially when injuries left him with no choice) and be unconventional about the bullpen. Both of those things could be tested this year (already lots of people still wonder if Marsh and Stott are full-time players, and I'm still not sure Bohm is. And it would only take four or five blown saves under the committee model for the press and fans to start demanding a closer).

But anyway. 1.8 per cent! We could all go back and look at our own posts from a year ago. There were a few optimists, and big believers in Dombrowski. But just as many of us thought they were just putting off another rebuild or would hover at 81-84 wins for years to come.

Austinfan 2023-02-01 04:03:07 UTC #991

This is the prove it year for the organizational changes, at both the ML level (can they improve players like Marsh, Sosa, Guthrie, Falter, etc.) and the minor league system. Mattingly is in his second year, they've implemented changes up and down the system, need to see some results, not every player, but enough coming out of the woodwork and turning into real prospects instead of the usual converse, prospects turning into suspects.

It's nice to spend money like you're Bill Gates, but in the end, you have to develop your own talent on a consistent basis.
Last year, Phillies got a lot of help from guys on the margin, Vierling, Maton, Stubbs, Hall, Falter, Brogdon, Bellati, etc. Bohm and Stott overcame rough stretches, as did Ranger.
Now we have to see if this is a trend or a fluke.

bigegypt0417 2023-02-01 16:24:20 UTC #992

If we're looking for alot of help from the minors this year, then we have bigger problems than that.,,,this roster is not one that will need anywhere near the same tinkering unless we are suffering from regression or big time injuries.

allentown 2023-02-01 18:05:24 UTC #993

The 26-man is looking fairly set, barring negative ST surprises. Still, the minor leagues are likely required to supply 8 pitchers and 4 position players during the course of the season, just for the usual pitcher ups-and-downs to control IP of tkhe 26-man bullpenners and a young SP and a low side of normal number of injuries to position players. The minor leaguers who came up in-season last year mattered and will matter again this season. Apart from Painter, I don't expect us to bring up someone who earns a more permanent rotation or starting 9 spot, but positive surprises can happen.

Austinfan 2023-02-01 18:26:43 UTC #994

Positive surprises need to happen on a more regular basis.

Yes, we have a solid lineup, but if Castellanos turns out to be cooked, the emergence of a young OF in Lehigh could be a key factor in the stretch run. Or if a pitcher goes down for a couple months, or . . .

Point is this organization can't continue with a below average farm system failing to supply cheap talent indefinitely. If they want 2022 to be more than a fluke, they need to make progress toward being a top ten system, and eventually a top five.

The long run two decades ago was fueled by a stream of young talent, now that they have the money to sign their own and add key players when needed, they should be among the "big boys."

allentown 2023-02-01 19:30:35 UTC #995

I agree totally that the development staff needs to produce more positive surprises and that the Phillies can't succeed long-term without a farm which is at least top half in producing MLB starting-quality players. Top 10 would be even better, but given draft position and international bonus allocation, it will be very difficult to crack top 10 until we are in another rebuild. For now, top half is more realistic.

I was addressing 2023 only. The way the 26- and 40-man rosters are shaping up, there is very little need/possibility for youngsters this season in all but injury replacement and RP/#5-6 starter rotation roles. Painter the notable exception and if he takes a step forward, perhaps Abel later. The recent signings even consume all of the bench roles, unless there is an injury/flop in ST.

I'm not sure if any young minor league OF is positioned to step forward this Spring, if Castellanos is cooked. Next year it could be Rojas. There doesn't seem to be much of a later season opening this year, because Harper presumably returns mid-season.
In the 2025 forward period, there will be a big need for cheap, home-grown plus position players, beyond Rojas. A lot of pitchers will be required.

andyb 2023-02-01 19:35:20 UTC #996

It is not like anyone has ever disagreed that the goal should be a top farm system and that farm system should produce inexpensive talent for the major league roster or trades. That has never been a point of debate. We also have no clue whether the changes the Phillies have made to their minors will produce anything tangible (especially since we may just be catching up in some places).

The organization CAN continue without a great farm system. Sure it is difficult, but money can provide you players also. Dombrowski has really embraced what many on this board have been saying for years - the team needs to spend money to make up for a below average farm system.

None of this means we can't walk and chew gum at the same time in the future. We should improve the farm system. We appear to be trying. Let's see if it works though before we pronounce a few developmental changes as the cure for everything that ails us.

BostonRoss 2023-02-01 20:09:36 UTC #997

I was in the 98.2 percent going into 2022. I didn't think the Phillies had improved much over 2021. Sure, Schwarber was an offensive upgrade, and we thought Castellanos was, too (though everyone's offense was improving in the NL with the DH). But Harper was unlikely to repeat 2021 even if he stayed healthy, and 3B, SS, and CF were still question marks. And the defense was still awful.

And as it turned out, they were only five wins better than in 2021. A lot of that was due to outstanding performances by pitchers (Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Dominguez, Alvarado). Maybe the managerial change was worth a few wins.

I still don't see a 90 win team in 2023 unless a lot of things break well. Turner is definitely a significant upgrade over Segura, but 3B and CF are still somewhat questionable, and we can't be sure that Stott will not regress. And Harper will probably miss more time than in 2022. The bullpen won't have the likes of Familia and Knebel, but Kimbrel is a big question mark, and there is a decent chance that one of Alvarado or Seranthony can't repeat 2022. It's hard to assume both Nola and Wheeler repeat 2022, either. And the defense is still pretty bad except up the middle. Maybe we'll get some standout seasons from Walker, Castellanos, Stott, Marsh, and/or Bohm, but that's a lot of maybes.

andyb 2023-02-01 20:28:56 UTC #999

I actually feel pretty good about the bullpen and the depth we have built on the 40-man roster and in the high minors. Completely agree that there is room and a reasonable chance for regression if certain things don't work out (Harper health, Nola and Wheeler being workhorses).

There is some upside out there too. Marsh and Stott could get better. Andrew Painter could be a real difference-maker. I do feel a lot better than I felt last year when the Castellanos move really did not feel right to me heading into camp. One can really appreciate the work DD has done this winter.

Austinfan 2023-02-01 20:37:02 UTC #1000

Probably the key will be developing some pitching, injuries are inevitable, but unless a number of starters go down they should be an above average offense, but can't put all your hopes on Painter. They need another young starter to step up, Falter, Sanchez, Plassmeyer, etc. and a couple young bullpen arms to provide depth at some point.

Now if they can accelerate the development of a couple players, Abel, McGarry, Rojas, De La Cruz, or resurrect Kingery, then you suddenly have a deep team that can shrug off injuries.

LoneStarPhan 2023-02-01 21:24:18 UTC #1001

I anticipate a pretty solid bullpen this coming season. Of course, with relievers, you never know what to expect, but the Phillies enter spring training with as good a pen as they have had in many years.

Dominguez, Alvarado, Kimbrel, and Soto give them four veterans who can close or can be used to face the opponents best hitters in the seventh or eighth inning. They should be able to spread the workload and not overwork any one pitcher.

Brogdon, Bellatti, and Strahm are solid set up men. It would be great if one or more of this trio could pitch a second or even a third inning from time to time. Strahm was a starter as late as 2019. The final slot in the pen has to be a long man who can potentially take an occasional start. Nelson is a possibility and Falter could end up in this role if Painter ends up in the rotation.

Dominguez, Soto, Brogdon, Bellatti, Nelson, and Falter all have options remaining, which might help with roster management.

Also on the 40 MR are several pitchers with options that I anticipate start the season in the minors but are available for call ups during the season as needed. Sanchez, Plassmeyer, and MacArthur are potential starters already on the 40 MR with options remaining and Uelmen, Marte, and Ortiz potential relievers also on the 40 MR with options. Vasquez, on the 40 MR but without an option left, could be lost during spring training if not retained on the active roster.

Several pitchers not on the 40 MR likely will be in the minors this season and could be possible call ups during the season. In addition to Painter, Abel, McGarry, and Crouse could end up getting some starts and Head, Appel, Morales, Baker and Duplantier could see some action in the pen.

Austinfan 2023-02-02 04:08:10 UTC #1002

This is where player development comes in.

As we saw with a few pitchers last year, it often just takes the right tweak to turn a AAAA pitcher into a solid ML pitcher.

Turn a below average changeup into a plus pitch with a different grip, fix mechanics so a pitcher with command issues suddenly finds the outside or bottom of the strike zone on a regular basis, get a pitcher struggling with his slider to learn how to throw a cutter instead, and so on.

When you have pitchers with ML stuff, it doesn't take miracles, it does take a coaching staff with a clue.
In the past, they seemed to have tried to take a cookie cutter approach (example, forcing Eflin to rely on 4 seam FBs when he has a plus 2 seamer but an average 4 seamer).

gmwannabe 2023-02-02 16:29:28 UTC #1003

Not really player info, but they just showed on the 11 AM news a segment. they have started loading up the tractor trailers for spring training. the Phanatic was helping and holding a football. I kind of like these short off seasons. I hope they continue.
gm

andyb 2023-02-02 19:33:45 UTC #1004

Bowden loves us lately. I think he had us as one of the top teams in the winter scorecard and now he has us 4th in the power rankings (Braves 3rd, Mets 5th).