Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[Austinfan]

The Phillies take precise measurements during almost every side bullpen session their starting pitchers throw. They can detect inconsistencies in arm slot, spin and velocity — and even compare it to a baseline for a routine bullpen session, when the intensity is not the same as real game action. Teams are less focused on innings counts as a workload barometer.

Gee, I think I saw that in another thread.

They'll baby Painter (and any other young pitcher, as well as Wheeler, SD et al with their injury history) but it'll be more sophisticated than inning and pitch counts - because you can underwork an arm as well as overwork it.

Another advantage of this approach is they can detect when a pitcher starts drifting from his optimal mechanics and quickly correct it instead of waiting three or four appearances to try and figure out what is going wrong. Hopefully, that means fewer bad stretches and more consistency from your pitching staff.

[EDmuch]

I am so impressed how the Phils have moved to the forefront of franchise management rather than the abysmal techniques of the Klentak era.

[Austinfan]

The good thing is Middleton is smart enough to invest in the equipment and personnel to implement a more sophisticated approach to player development - video analysis is labor intensive, so additional costs. Building a complex at Clearwater so players can work year around, especially the rookie and A ball kids, costs a lot of money but should pay off in faster and better development of young prospects, as well as providing resources to veterans coming off injuries to work out in the offseason.

[andyb]

Middleton is doing what most owners do by investing in his team. This is not radically different than past eras. Certainly we invested in the Klentak area. We were just very bad at it. I have no idea if this team is better than average at this stuff. We shall see.

As for what this means for Painter, I still think the Phillies will be very conservative in his usage. There is no magic test on body mechanics that will tell them when to pull the pitcher in the 6th inning. Much of the real time stuff on the sidelines is unavailable in a game. They will have to rely on more basic data like velocity and looking at the pitchers mechanics with their eyes. And inevitably they are going to err on the side of caution with Painter. As I said I would be shocked if he goes over 150 innings in the regular season. They probably are targeting more like 130 and will use pitch counts around 90 as targets (not 100 or 110 like they do with Wheeler and Nola).

There is so much uncertainty in all the data (both historic and what they have in real time) that any sensible GM/manager/pitching coach is just going to err on the side of caution. Mastery of analytics did not get us to the World Series last year. It was good, old fashioned performance from very well paid stars that put us over the top. Analytics helped, but we did bust the cap to have a lineup with a number of very well paid stars before that.

[phillychuck]

I think Andy is right about the proper approach to Painter--pitch counts of 90-100, six-day rotation, a mid-season break, and a target of 130 IP. When late September arrives, reassess using him in the playoffs if that is on the table.

[allentown]

The Phillies probably have improved their analytics capabilities. The former administration built the department around a guy from the Commissioner's office, whose expertise was predicting what arb awards arbitrators would choose -- a naturally backwards-looking skill based upon conventional stats. With this bunch of on-field-baseball amateur analytics guys we chased fads like anyone can play anywhere and it doesn't matter, everyone needs to change to a loft-based swing, and every pitcher needs to feature the high fastball. The analytics crew spent a season trying to create a model which would predict how Fuld would position the OFs. Other teams had built analytics departments around guys who had spent multiple years studying what stats mattered, which predicted future performance. While our analytics department was in its infancy and treated like high-tech Gods whom the manager was obliged to follow, I suspect that these teams with more sophisticated analytics had moved on to in-game decisions based upon individual players and that this individual approach based upon player strengths was embedded in development and coaching. We were late followers, rather than innovators or early followers, which meant we were always a couple steps behind. Now we're probably only a single step behind.

[zambonir]

The reality is nothing about the Phillies changed in 2015. Monty only stepped aside due to his illness, Gillick was no longer a progressive or transformational figure, and both of them were fully in support of hiring MacPhail, who was both unsuited for (and seemingly uninterested in) running a baseball operations department in need of change but also picked a protege who looked good on paper (young, analytics-minded) but turned out to be unsuited for both aspects of his job (new ideas and traditional GM stuff) as well (especially since MacPhail actually let him run the team, unlike the current structure). Once the rake hit Middleton in the face a couple of times he began to be hands-on, which wasn't always ideal either, but it led to all the changes that finally got us to the present-day.

Still gonna be a challenge to sustain success for five-six years (rather than the next two-three) given the failure to reap much from the period between trading Hamels until drafting Haseley but money and much better people certainly will help!

It's ironic that Fuld is the only real survivor/asset from that era. And I guess Velandia from the Amaro era.

[andyb]

I agree with most of that, though I do think the Phillies were probably more sophisticated than you give them credit for. We are kind of just speculating on the skills of the people they hired, and they did go far beyond that initial MLB guy who might have even pre-dated Klentak.

Bottom line though is that they just were not good at it. I hope the new regime is better, though I come back to the basic fact is that these analytics are far less important than the talent of the player. We were good last year because we spent money and got a little lucky. We might have been a game or two better on the analytics side, but I think we were better on the talent and basic coaching side too.

[allentown]

Yes, I agree that improved analytics weren't worth more than two wins, and at least one of those from stopping doing stupid things rather than finding smart things to do. But, those two wins were important.

[zambonir]

I can think of five or six things that on paper might have been worth one or two wins: the manager, better analytics, better talent (both young and old), higher payroll, the pitching/hitting coaches and the front office in general (which was still finding its legs last year). Obviously they are all interrelated and inseparable. Because the reality is the 2022 team still only won five more games than the 2021 team (though we can say that the team they ended up being, based on Thomson's winning %, was a solid 10 games better).

[allentown]

Yes, many of those things could have added 1-2 wins. If the Phillies had 2 fewer wins, they miss the playoffs. If improved analytics added 2 wins, then they aren't into the postseason without that improvement. The 10 wins better with new manager are reflected in the playoffs. Thomson was a better manager, but unloading Gerardi also meant no more Didi.

[Austinfan]

The value of analytics should be more in guiding long-term decision making, valuing both your own and other players, identifying weaknesses and strengths that might not be obvious to old school coaches to guide both player development and player usage.

[julio]

5 posts were split to a new topic: 2023 Phils Spring Training News and Discussion

[bigegypt0417]

Every elite organization wouldn't agree with you...take the Astros as your prime example...they are almost completely driven by analytics.

[allentown]

Yes, and they have evidence of success in the low-bonus, high spin-rate relievers from Latin America who performed so well against us in the World Series. Let's hope that the Phillies analytical department is soon able to match the performance of the analytics departments in the elite organizations. There is a time lag in seeing results, of course.

[bkox]

Josh Harrison to Phillies. $2M, 1 year.

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) January 29, 2023

MSM is excited to announce that free agent, Josh Harrison, and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a contract for the 2023 season! Welcome to Philly, J Hay!

Design by @nmaurer34 #phillies // #msmfamily pic.twitter.com/qGbqNXnd2k

— MSM ( @MSMsports ) January 29, 2023

[bkeich]

Baffling move. If he had another guaranteed spot he should have taken it, no idea why the Phillies would give him a guaranteed spot a few weeks before training camp. Only $2M lost when they cut him, but still....

[tom81]

I don’t think it’s baffling. He wants a shot a a ring.

[bkox]

BBref and Fangraphs both have him at 1.4WAR last year. Seems to be all defense WAR though. But if you believe in WAR and he does that again.. thats good value for $2M

[David_Criss]

Roster is getting pretty crowded