Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[Matt_Winkelman]

That has not been the indication anywhere (especially with Nola) with there being plenty of smoke they plan on talking extension with Nola this spring.

As for comp picks for QO, now that the Phillies are a tax payer, those picks are after the 4th round, so while they aren't nothing, they are not really valuable in relation to letting a player walk.

[bigegypt0417]

I would call a net worth of about 3.4 billion dollars to be filthy rich...

[Squire]

Phillies and Rhys Hoskins settle on 1 year/$12 million

https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1613966337763840001

[fish]

Hoskins avoided arbitration with a 1 year deal for 12 million. Seems to me like this is the time to do an extension or none at all. I don't want to sign up for Hoskins for any more than 4 years and it's hard to see him signing an extension for just 3 years after this year if they don't get that deal done now. Then again maybe they need to put it off to keep the payroll tax limit down this year. I'd do 4 years/65 million

[zambonir]

I gotta think they let Rhys hit the market (in part because he and Boras also want to). And it also suits the Phillies to see how some other guys play out this season (Bohm, Castellanos, Marsh, Harper) before deciding what do at 1B and DH going forward. If another team wants him badly enough good for them but I think Phillies would still have a chance to keep him if nobody's dying to overpay a RH DH.

Similarly, everyone keeps saying the Phillies want to talk extension with Nola but does he want to take one? He already gave them a discount once. They'll definitely have to give him potential dead years for the usual reasons (cost of doing biz, lower AAV).

And yeah if they're already close to the second tax that's also a question.

[andyb]

I have to think there is a 3-4 year deal for $60-$80 million out there for Hoskins and there is just no universe where that is a good bet for the Phillies knowing they have Harper and Castellanos and Schwarber that all might be suited to 1B at some point before we even get to considering where Bohm would play.

Given that there is little reason for the Phillies to offer such a contract, there is also little reason for Hoskins to try to negotiate something at below that level.

Playing the year out works for both parties. Hoskins can have a big year and get more money. The Phillies can see where all their potential 1B are over the course of the year.

[andyb]

No dollar figures but we also settled with Suarez, Soto, and Sosa. Dominguez and Alvarado going to arbitration (and they probably have the more complicated cases with wider outcome ranges).

Phillies avoid arbitration with 4 players, 2 remain unsigned

[julio]

Hoskins: $12,000,000
Suarez: $2,950,000
Sosa: $950,000
Soto: $3,925,000

[zambonir]

I thought it was interesting that Pete Alonso got a decent bit more than Rhys ($14.5 million), Hader also set a record for relief pitchers ($14.1 million). But what's most interesting to me, in a good way, is that Seranthony and Alvarado believe they are worth more while Soto, the guy with the more traditional resume (saves, All-Star appearances), settled (though he was probably offered more than them). The Phillies will be hard-pressed to use that against them IMO (though never overestimate the arbitrator I guess).

Odds are they still settle or it's not too fractious.

Soto ($23M) leads MLB stars avoiding arbitration

[andyb]

Seranthony getting a $2.2-$2.3 million projection in his 3rd (of 4) arbitration years versus Soto getting close to $4 million in his first year just shows how unfair and arbitrary the system is. Soto gets credit for his saves. Seranthony will be paid like someone in his first arbitration year rather than his 3rd.

I'd still think of locking Seranthony up long term because even next year he'll be underpaid. Might as well use that to leverage a team favorable longer deal. If there is one reliever I'd guarantee $30 million to over 4-5 years it is Seranthony.

[julio]

If this isn't settled by sometime next week, somebody in the front office should be fired. They would go to an arbitration hearing over an amount less than the major league minimum?

Arbitration exchange update: Jose Alvarado filed at $3.7 million; the Phillies filed at $3.2 million.

— Mark Feinsand ( @Feinsand ) January 14, 2023

Update: Make it two of 'em:

Arbitration exchange update: Seranthony Dominguez filed at $2.9 million; the Phillies filed at $2.1 million.

— Mark Feinsand ( @Feinsand ) January 14, 2023

[VoteForKalas]

I'd still think of locking Seranthony up long term because even next year he'll be underpaid. Might as well use that to leverage a team favorable longer deal. If there is one reliever I'd guarantee $30 million to over 4-5 years it is Seranthony.

With his injury history, I'd be cautious locking him long term. I'd want to see him repeat another healthy season this year before considering it.

[andyb]

With his injury history, I'd be cautious locking him long term. I'd want to see him repeat another healthy season this year before considering it.

The reward for the Phillies would be greater than the risk. The Phillies probably have to pay him about $6 million next year if he has a good year. Then he is likely in the $10-$15 million a year range as a reliever. He could be the anchor on the bullpen for 4+ years. Why not take a risk and get him at a $7-$8 million AAV than something closer to $15 million or letting him walk for nothing.

There is injury risk of course, but is that risk with him greater than any other pitcher and he seems to have come through the TJ surgery OK. He is not really injury prone. He had one bad injury that required TJ surgery and the Phillies really should have just done that when he got hurt instead of trying to rehab for a year and then losing another year because the pandemic delayed the surgery again. That is an injury, not an injury history really which implies chronic persistent problems.

Getting your best reliever (by far IMO even with Soto and Kimbrel) locked up for his peak years at a discount is pretty big incentive to take on some risk.

[rpmcmurphy]

It seems to me that Nola would be a relatively low-risk extension candidate. Durable, good control, good off-speed stuff. Whenever he loses 2 mph off his fastball he should still be a serviceable 3 or 4 starter. Those pitchers will be VERY expensive in a few years. Of course, it all depends on the details but I’d really like to see it get done. I’m not good at guesstimating a reasonable deal. Five years at AAV 30M?

[zambonir]

If this isn't settled by sometime next week, somebody in the front office should be fired. They would go to an arbitration hearing over an amount less than the major league minimum?

Well you could say the same thing about the players (though I don't blame them). The small size of those numbers makes me think a hearing is inevitable though. If the Phillies were willing to meet either player halfway (and the players were willing to take it) it would have happened already. But agreed the team is the one that should just move off of their position and go more than halfway or all the way.

As andy reiterated, a system that rewards both service time and dubious measures of performance over actual performance - especially when the team itself is now recognizing there are better ways to measure and implement great relief pitching! - is still messed up. But it's also probably correct that they should leverage that reality against Seranthony's extension. I can also see a scenario where Soto ends up being non-tendered before he reaches free agency (though hopefully not since it would also mean he's not pitching great in addition to not being a closer per se).

[Philsmania]

The hot stove season keeps coming to a Head.

Phillies Sign Louis Head To Minor League Deal

[zambonir]

He's got a big Hand to fill

[BostonRoss]

Might as well try a Head. We tried a Hand last year. I remember watching a Legg and a Foote in the past.

[zambonir]

Discussion of Painter and the rotation and innings limits has kind of taken over the Prospects thread but I thought I'd put this here.

4. As the Phillies monitor their starters after a long playoff run and figure out a safe workload for 19-year-old top prospect Andrew Painter, Thomson said it’s likely they will deploy a six-man rotation at various points in the season.

My guess is he does break camp with big club so not one of his limited # of pitches is wasted in Allentown. And the other pitchers could all benefit from a few skipped turns or extra days off too (assuming none of them miss time on the DL instead).

Inside Rob Thomson’s plan to help the Phillies adapt to MLB’s new rules

[zambonir]

And more from Gelb:

“Pitchers need to pitch,” Thomson said. “I would hate to break camp — and we’ve had a healthy (Aaron) Nola, a healthy (Zack) Wheeler for six weeks — and they break camp at 80 pitches. That’s not what we’re looking for. We’re going to try to get them to a full pitch count so it doesn’t take its toll on the bullpen.”

The Phillies take precise measurements during almost every side bullpen session their starting pitchers throw. They can detect inconsistencies in arm slot, spin and velocity — and even compare it to a baseline for a routine bullpen session, when the intensity is not the same as real game action. Teams are less focused on innings counts as a workload barometer.

Thomson acknowledged the club could go to a six-man rotation at times in 2023; this is something team officials have discussed all offseason. It would have been a consideration even if the Phillies had not advanced to the World Series. The six-man mechanism is a way to keep Painter in the equation for a full big-league season as he continues to adjust to the rigors of pro ball after only one full season in the minors.

Painter will be treated like every other starting pitcher in camp: He’s expected to build his innings under a normal progression.

Phillies bench, bullpen and rotation notes with an eye toward spring training