Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[andyb]

True. But if Hoskins is a $15 million player and the market for replacements all require multi-year deals at whatever position, then Hoskins is a pretty safe QO option for the team. Get your 2 WAR for 1 more year without any long term commitment.

[zambonir]

Yeah, Fish is right that in terms of viewing the comp pick for Hoskins as a bird in hand, there is still risk he accepts. But if they think that risk exists (and also don't want him to), they also might not tender in the first place. Which would be another reason to consider trading him. Conversely, if you like the idea of only having him for one more year while he's in his prime, you're definitely not trading him now.

But I doubt he would take the QO, he's not a $20 million player but he will get himself a multi-year deal on the open market, just like Bell and Abreu (and Gallo?) are probably going to this year (and Tyler Anderson, on the pitching side).

As far as the tax, they will go over it if they have to/want to, but it's also not necessarily the plan. To me the Harper injury is the only reason they really have to consider it. The shortstop is happening regardless (IMO). I don't think they will go big on starting pitching though you could use the Harper injury as another reason to do that/avoid a slow start (instead of getting an extra bat). But otherwise they just need someone to hold space for Painter (who would then drop into Falter's spot if he isn't good enough) and will have even more options (both internal and external) come July.

I don't see Hoskins as an issue one way or another money-wise, if they trade him it would be to make the overall roster construction better. At the end of the day the problem remains the same: they have too many DHs, and that problem only gets worse not better when Harper's back. You move Rhys to solve that problem, not to stay under the tax, though obviously his money could also go to paying for someone who can play the field (or pitching) too.

[zambonir]

Honestly the Phillies could just spend an hour with Boras and finish up their shopping for the year (other than the bullpen). I reckon that also means they could get in on Correa if they want to. Will be interesting to see if Boras wants to set the market or see Turner go off the board first.

Rosenthal: What I'm hearing on the MLB Hot Stove

Three of Jim Bowden’s top seven free agents (No. 4 Carlos Correa, No. 6 Xander Bogaerts and No. 7 Carlos Rodón) are represented by Boras. So are three others in Bowden’s top 25 (No. 16 Brandon Nimmo, No. 21 Michael Conforto and No. 25 Josh Bell). Add to that group Taijuan Walker, J.D. Martinez, Cody Bellinger, Jurickson Profar and Joey Gallo, among others.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Realistically how many innings should the team plan for from Falter, Painter, and even Nola and Wheeler if they plan to play deep into the post season? Will the team decide they got too many innings from Nola and Wheeler last season before the long post season which may have effected them in the WS?
I would be looking to limit the number of innings Painter pitches in April regardless where he is pitching, with the hope he is up and still pitching in October.

[bkeich]

I would be looking to limit the number of innings Painter pitches in April regardless where he is pitching, with the hope he is up and still pitching in October.

What I dont llke about that is the good chance of injury for pitchers. If you limit his innings early in the season and he gets hurt mid way through you have sometime close to a lost season. I think you have to get innings from pitchers when they are available, maybe in September you try to spread it around a little thin to keep guys fresh, but the games in April count just as much at the end of the season.

Also, it is big stretch to think of this as a team that goes deep into the postseason, yes, I know it just happened, but that really is not likely as the team is currently constructed. We are the 3rd best team in our division until proven otherwise, we need to be trying to win in the regular season as much as we can. The Dodgers can think this way, but I dont think the Phillies are really in that position.

[andyb]

The Painter plan would almost certainly include a midseason break like they did last year, especially if he made the team out of Spring Training. Personally I'd start him in May and skip Spring Training games completely, but I doubt that is the plan.

[zambonir]

I think the Phillies are at least on par with the Mets as things currently stand (before the moves really start).

Bowden currently predicts Painter makes the rotation out of spring training and that they bring back Eflin or someone like him. That would be decent depth to start but with an innings limit on Painter, health questions on Eflin and ability questions on Falter and Sanchez, they're bound to need someone else along the way or at the deadline (unless McGarry or Abel is the answer then).

[xogfog]

And where does McGarry fit in? it's almost like nobody is talking about him at all for 2023...

[andyb]

$296K for Phillies playoff shares. Looks like they gave out 72 of them compared to only 59 for Houston. Imagine they gave lots of the kids who made cameos at some point a full share which is nice to see (also 15 more partial shares and some cash rewards).

Champ Astros hand out record playoff shares

[andyb]

I am not sure I want them to pursue it, but MLB Rumors did link a story from Seattle that the Phillies almost acquired Marco Gonzalez at the deadline. He is a control LHP. Probably less stuff than Gibson but left-handed. 2 years and $19 million left on his contract plus an option.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/analysis-here-are-the-players-the-mariners-could-trade-to-take-the-next-step/

Imagine he'd cost a mid-level prospect. Not Painter or Abel, though I could see McGarry or Rojas. Not advocating for it, but that is what he would likely cost since there are not too many starters in the 2 year/$19 million range on the free agent market.

[Philsmania]

Here's the MLBTR article. Work in a third team which could supply the M's with prospects?

Mariners, Phillies, Yankees, Explored Deadline Trade Involving Marco Gonzales,...

[andyb]

I think the 3rd team was at the deadline. More important thing though is that the Phillies had interest. He really is a good Gibson comp with 2 years left on an affordable deal even if he was not that good the past 2 years. He has that "veteran inning eater" look about him that I imagine DD is fond of.

Also curious whether he'd be interested in Eovaldi since there is a Boston connection. He had injury issues that might lower his value, though also some good FIP metrics that suggest he was a little unlucky.

[Aquapong]

Nice to see the kids get paid a fat Christmas bonus.

If Painter makes the team out of ST, I wonder if they would go with a six man rotation for a while? Ceiling wise, Painter seems to be the guy. I’m glad we didn’t trade him two years ago when wanted to. McGarry will likely fit in somewhere though. Maybe in the bullpen in the long run.

The M’s are looking to go back to the playoffs as well. Why would they trade Marco Gonzalez unless it was to free up money to go after a bigger fish?

[zambonir]

Ceiling wise, Painter seems to be the guy. I’m glad we didn’t trade him two years ago when wanted to.

I don't recall Painter ever really being mentioned as a trade candidate. If anything he was the untouchable of the three this past deadline. And two years ago he wasn't even in the organization (nor could he be traded until last November).

[zambonir]

Dave Dombrowski: Phillies' offseason plan has not been altered by Bryce Harper's...

Story says they probably won't do anything to directly replace Harper, but then again (per Gelb not Dombrowski) they could.

“You just look at all your different options that are out there as time goes on,” Dombrowski said. “I don’t think we are going to rush and sign or make the big trade for an outfielder/DH because, eventually, you’re not going to be able to play that person.”

That means, even after Harper’s Tommy John surgery, the Phillies’ priorities remain more pitching and an upgrade at shortstop. The Phillies are locked into Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. They have two DH candidates — Rhys Hoskins and Alec Bohm — on the infield. They could keep J.T. Realmuto’s bat in the lineup more if he is the DH once a week.

There is no shortage of DH options while Harper recovers. The trick is squeezing some production from whatever reserve player is in the lineup as a result of someone else DHing. If the Phillies sign a shortstop, it could be as simple as Hoskins being the DH against lefties while Bohm shifts to first base and Edmundo Sosa plays third. Against righties, the Phillies could deploy Darick Hall as the designated hitter.

Maybe they seek an upgrade for the bench spots hypothetically filled by Matt Vierling and Hall, but that player would have to shift into a full-time reserve role whenever Harper returns. The Phillies could decide it’s worth spending their resources — money and prospects — on more pressing needs.

But, if Harper is not available for almost three months’ worth of games, a more capable fourth outfielder could be worth it.

DHing JT twice a week if Stubbs' bat is for real actually seems like a good option (or let Stubbs himself DH once). Then maybe Castellanos twice (letting Vierling play RF) and Hall the rest of the time. You don't really even need to mess with Bohm and Hoskins.

[andyb]

Fangraphs falls into the "replace Bryce by committee" camp. More Sosa, Guthrie, and Hall.

Phillies Seek Outfielder at Bargain Bryce

[zambonir]

If you watched any of Philadelphia’s playoff run this fall, you might have noticed a group of large and hyperactive 20-somethings bouncing around in the Phillies’ dugout. This is the group of players who will likely replace Harper.

lol

I would argue that the story ultimately doesn't think much of those young internal options though. Merely figures it is worth throwing them (and/or cheap vets) against the wall to see what sticks.

None of the available internal replacements for Harper look likely to hold up to extended exposure to major league pitching. But consider this: Out of these six players — Vierling, Muzziotti, Sosa, Hall, Guthrie, and Maton — all except Sosa are pre-arbitration and have at least one option year left. If the Phillies, say, sunk eight figures into Cody Bellinger, that would create a ton of pressure for him to work out. Not so for this group of players. If one of them eats his spinach and turns into a legitimate starter this winter, so much the better. If not, the Phillies can cycle through their options until they find someone who works.

And they have options beyond their homegrown players, particularly because of what they can’t offer free agents: A full-time starting job. Anyone who signs on to replace Harper would be fighting for a place in the lineup for half the year, and would need to be comfortable with a part-time role afterward. And players like that, who can do a job for three months, can be had. In free agency, on the waiver wire, among spring training invites, through post-roster-crunch trades, even via the Rule 5 draft. Nobody can replace Harper in the lineup. So the Phillies should give a shot to as many players as they can.

[bkeich]

First Phillies Spring Training game showed up on my ESPN "Upcoming Games" for 2/25 (Split Squad games with Tigers and Yankees). Less than 3 months!!!!!

[EDmuch]

I really like the idea of signing Conforto. We could dangle the option of him replacing Hoskins
in 2024.

[allentown]

That would be lying. Actually, i don't see a spot for him on the Phillies after Harper returns, unless one of our other DH-types is injured, or we traded Hoskins. Hoskins is better. Conforto's last season, 2021, he had only a 100 OPS+ and a 0.8 bWAR. That is not a starting 1B on a contender.