Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[zambonir]

Sources: 1B Santana to Pirates on 1-year deal

No, not mistakenly posting here instead of the ex-Phillies category. Just taking note of the below as another reason for the Phillies to shore up its lefthanded hitting in Harper's absence, though I suppose it could be a plus for Hall as well.

Further, nobody was shifted a higher percentage last year than Santana, who saw altered defense in 356 of his 362 left-handed batting appearances. With the ban of the shift coming in 2023, the switch-hitting Santana could see a significant benefit.

[BostonRoss]

It seems like Pittsburgh is a place where formerly good players go to die. Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, Corey Hart, Justin Morneau, Derrek Lee, Matt Morris, Sean Casey, Jeromy Burnitz, Benito Santiago, Raul Mondesi...it's a long list.

[fish]

Think the Phillies could get a No. 2 or 3 starter for Hoskins? Let the recent Blue Jays-Mariners and Brewers-Angels swaps open your eyes.

If they have the ability to upgrade the roster with his replacement I’d look to get back prospects for Hoskins to replace the second and fourth (?) pick they’ll lose from signing a SS.

[zambonir]

That's another way to look at it - though, they get back the 4th (as well as the benefit of Hoskins' production) keeping him.

I don't think moving on from Hoskins is the best upgrade, but making him primarily a DH and upgrading from Hall (as both a fielder and a hitter) improves things overall and better fills the Harper absence.

I suppose Trea Turner by himself = Hoskins + Segura, though that wouldn't be enough for me to settle for Hall and Vierling as Harper's replacements (with no Hoskins).

[VoteForKalas]

It seems like Pittsburgh is a place where formerly good players go to die. Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, Corey Hart, Justin Morneau, Derrek Lee, Matt Morris, Sean Casey, Jeromy Burnitz, Benito Santiago, Raul Mondesi...it's a long list.

Mostly because they sign them after they've stopped being good or on the decline. In other words, Pittsburgh is the place declining players go for one last payday.

[EDmuch]

Is Conforto a lefty or right handed bat?

[Taudawg]

I asked my phone and it told me Conforto bats left.

[phillychuck]

Google, Alexa, and Siri are your friends...he is a LHB who is an above average OF defender in the corners and capable of playing CF adequately. A table-setter with gap power. He would be a nice addition, but might command too much in salary for us to go after hard.

In my humble opinion, the best off-season would be (getting very specific here):

Conforto
Bogaerts (Turner completely acceptable if the terms/interest dictate going that direction)
Wacha
Eflin (RP/swing)
2 Random other RP lottery tickets

if the contracts are right.

[fish]

That's another way to look at it - though, they get back the 4th (as well as the benefit of Hoskins' production) keeping him.

I’m not sure if I’m reading the meaning of your comment correctly- but if they sign a qualifying free agent they are going to lose 2 picks- the 2nd and 5th (not the 4th round as I guessed above). If they are going to keep the health of the franchise moving in the right direction they’ll need to get creative with how they stock the shelves.

[andyb]

I have no idea what the market for Conforto is. No suitors coming off a bad year and then shoulder surgery (in April). Assume he has to put on a showcase and provide medical scans to prove he can throw enough to play RF. Clearly would be in the market for a 1-year prove it deal. Hard to imagine the Phillies could guarantee as much playing time as other teams though, especially if the guarantee is basically until Harper is back even at DH.

[andyb]

And the cost is a million of international money too, so that is probably a couple of $500K lottery tickets. We'd want one prospect from a team's top 10 and then a lottery ticket or two for Hoskins and not sure we can get that.

[zambonir]

Right, if they sign a qualifying free agent they lose a 2nd and a 5th. But if they keep Hoskins, exceed the tax again, and give him a QO, they get a 4th for him next year. And should they get back under the tax the pick would be a 2nd. In both cases, at the very end of the round of course.

It's a perfectly worthy thing to consider but you still have to also consider the value of Hoskins in the line-up, as well as whether you could trade him for something that might actually help the 2023 team (even if it's just a reliever - but you're more likely to get someone like that over a good prospect as the headliner in the deal in terms of salary match).

I can also see the Phillies trading someone (Hoskins included) for prospects at the deadline (or in a three-way deal) - if they do bring in someone to replace Harper, and Castellanos bounces back, and Bohm is solid, and the new shortstop has produced, they will have an extra piece (assuming Harper returns on schedule/well).

[allentown]

Which is why we should sign a non-QO FA. Fortunately, the best SS available won't cost us picks or international $.

[zambonir]

Don't see how anyone could argue against it if he wants to sign here, But haven't seen any indication they are that hot for him. And, you could still argue that the value of the money saved (if Correa is the most expensive guy to sign) exceeds the value of the draft pick.

But I think it's more a combination of limited interest from Correa's camp and a genuine preference for one of the other two guys (because of DD's previous ties to Bogaerts, and Harper's to the Nats). Not crazy about that being the deciding factor, but still probably the reality. If you like the player better and he's cheaper, you'll give up the compensation.

[allentown]

I am not a big fan of previous ties. Didn't DD have previous ties to Castellanos and Girardi had very strong previous ties to Didi. Previous ties only help if you are a pathetic team nobody wants to sign with. We are a big spending team just coming off winning two games in the WS. Correa is two years younger. Some of the 'where are they going' articles have Bogaerts and Correa at essentially the same $.

[zambonir]

Agreed, though sometimes those things work out (Gillick and Werth, for instance. Herrera's connection to Velandia. Or heck, even the way Charlie Manuel and Rob Thomson became our managers!).

Right or wrong, the reality is if Dombrowski wants to bet on the Guy He Knows, or give his star player the Guy He Wants, you can't really blame him.

The funny thing about Castellanos is he was a bad signing even if he'd had a good season, IMO (but on this I think we also agree).

[Aquapong]

My perfect off season from this point would have to include us going over the tax or making some painful trades to stay under since we're tendering Hoskins.

Carlos Correa, Jose Quintana or Chris Bassitt, Michael Fulmer, and Andrew Chafin. WC’s. Book it.

I don’t really see any salary dumps we can make, so if we were intent on staying under the tax, we’d have to make a trade for probably a young controllable SS or SP. I suppose we could also skimp on the SP or RP by grabbing as many reclamation projects as possible and hoping some of them work out. I don’t really see skipping out on the SS market again making sense short or long term.

In my mind, we’re burning through the primes of several top players. It’s time to go all in in terms of the tax. I really want to keep our pitching propsects.

[andyb]

It’s time to go all in in terms of the tax. I really want to keep our pitching propsects.

That is the big question. I think a trade for a younger player in their prime will cost us Abel or McGarry. That will have to be worth it. Assume Painter is the rare untouchable and the team probably thinks he has a 50-50 shot at making the team out of Spring Training (or let him start slowly with a AAA ramp up so an innings limit will not be a huge issue).

Do we want to trade Abel for a middle infielder that can help now but is young enough to give us at least 3+ years before free agency? That would help us get under the luxury tax assuming we would not be penciling in a $30 million AAV for one of the top 4 free agent SS.

[EDmuch]

If Middleton dies not care about the luxury tax, I don’t see why any of us should

[fish]

But if they keep Hoskins, exceed the tax again, and give him a QO, they get a 4th for him next year.

But Hoskins isn't a $20 million dollar player- so he's more likely to accept QO than someone is to sign him and lose a pick(s).