Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[bkeich]

Especially since Bellinger really is a reclamation project. It is more of a move a bad team makes that can give him plate appearances without any real consequence in hopes that he improves and they can flip him for some prospects.

We aren't really in that position and we already have too many guys for our lesser defensive positions (corner OF, 1B, 3B, DH).

If it was recovering from 1 bad year, maybe I would be tempted by Bellinger, but he has had 3 bad years.

[zambonir]

I don't think that's actually the case though. Blue Jays, Giants, Rockies are the interested teams publicly so far; Rockies the only really bad team there and that doesn't mean they aren't trying or spending. A team that signs him only to flip him probably can't afford him in the first place, especially since the flip would include paying his salary.

The appeal of Bellinger is that he's automatically an upgrade over Castellanos in RF, or any player at any other position he plays defensively (including Harper and Hoskins). And his peripherals in the second half of last year supposedly suggest he might be coming around. But he's not going to sign with the Phillies for cheap or as a band-aid. If you sign him and pay him, he has to have a spot all year (though you could wait for the trade deadline and Harper's return to figure it out).

Let's hope Bryce's return goes better than Bellinger's (which was a shoulder) or Didi's (which was the same surgery).

[andyb]

In teh current situation, perhaps Cody Bellinger is the right call. From what I have heard he wants a one year deal so he can reestablish his value. And one year is exactly what the Phils would need from him.

One has to think that he wants like $20 million for that one year though. Remember what Thor got for one year. When you have a good player that is not hurt that just underperformed recently the market tends to overpay them.

[zambonir]

There are some interesting notes in here.

Bryce Harper undergoes successful Tommy John surgery, is expected back by...

Hall came out of the gate strong, hitting two home runs in his second big-league game on June 30 and posting a .907 OPS over his first 12 games. He heated up again in August, when he hit .302/.333/.628 over 13 games, but he finished his first season in the big leagues with a glaringly high 31% strikeout rate.

(Dombrowski): “We like what Darick Hall did for us. We like Darick Hall. Do we think that using him in a role, depending on the time, compared to other moves we may make, gives us the best chance to win? We’ll just have to wait and see.”

Another option that was mentioned last week by manager Rob Thomson would to be move utilityman Edmundo Sosa to third base, third baseman Alec Bohm to first base, and first baseman Rhys Hoskins to DH. This would presume the Phillies acquire a shortstop this offseason, preferably one they can slot into the middle of the lineup.

A third option, suggested by an NL talent evaluator, would be to alternate Schwarber and Castellanos at DH, while moving Matt Vierling from right field to left field. Schwarber and Castellanos don’t grade well by defensive metrics, so replacing one with Vierling would shore up the defense in Harper’s absence, while making sure Castellanos and Schwarber stay in the lineup.

I'm not sure who plays right field at all in that last scenario though?

[Austinfan]

The problem is that they have to commit Marsh to full-time duty to use Vierling in the corner, and he'd also have to play full-time unless you platoon him with Hall. Guthrie is the other option in the OF. Maybe Maton Kingery would be the long-shot in TC.

Rojas probably needs a full season in AAA ball, and is unlikely to be ML ready in April.
But with Harper back by the AS break, makes no sense to commit to anything more than an inexpensive LH bat you can move in August when he returns. So going outside only makes sense if the player is significantly better than Hall.

In the long-run, you have to hope Rojas can take a spot, Marsh/Vierling can take a spot, but you still have Castallenos for 4 more years and Schwarber for 3, so someone needs to show they can play 1B. Only one DH slot.

[andyb]

Vierling is a darling of advanced analytics, but he really is not good enough for a full time role. Exit velocity is nice, but he does not have a good enough command of the strike zone to play regularly. 23/70 BB/K ratio when he gets more playing time against his strong side is more important than his average exit velocity when he hits the ball.

Hall hit 5 of his 9 HRs against the Nationals or position players. He probably is more of a 750 OPS guy against average competition even if he only played against RHP. Nice depth for the organization but not really a solution either.

[Aquapong]

Somewhere in the league there’s an expendable OF we can get for cheap.

[EDmuch]

Yes I am sure Corey Dickerson is out there somewhere.

[zambonir]

You joke, but that's exactly what they need. The 2023 version of a guy like Corey Dickerson or Brad Miller in 2018 or 2019. Maybe that's a bench guy ready to shoulder a bigger load, maybe it's a veteran about to lose his job to a prospect (as Renfroe was going to), maybe it's a team with a young fourth OF who is better than that and thus has trade value (I believe that describes Arizona, for one).

It just isn't Hall (can't field) or Vierling (too many RHBs assuming they sign a SS and keep Hoskins) or Rojas (if he breaks out, great, he can have Vierling's bench spot in July).

[Austinfan]

If Rojas breaks out, someone else is sitting.

Because he has that kind of raw, athletic talent, plus plus speed, plus arm and instincts, alley power. In the AFL he had 8 BB to 8 K, a very promising sign for a young hitter.

Now he's just starting to break out, maybe his ceiling is 4th OF as a defensive replacement, but the upside is there, if he reaches it watch out.

[zambonir]

Well, there are different levels of breaking out. This is still a guy with just 60 games in AA, and a .720 OPS. More likely than not he doesn't sniff the majors this year except as an injury replacement or second-half bench player who passes Muzziotti and Guthrie (and Vierling) on the depth chart. If he's better than that, bring it on.

[Austinfan]

Exactly. We've seen these guys suddenly put it together for other teams, about time we get that kind of explosive development from one of our prospects.

[andyb]

If Rojas breaks out, someone else is sitting

Not so sure about that. Obviously if he hits .400 in AAA and they call him up he'll play, but it is likely he starts at AA and the team will want him to spend most of the year (absent injury) at AAA to refine (or basically learn) his hit tool. Obviously you want him to step in for Marsh if Marsh is hurt or fails.

The conversation here is more about a 5th OF that can help the team manage the first part of the season without Bryce. That person will likely cost less than $5 million a year.

Prospects are not chess pieces you can just plug into the lineup. They have to be developed and (certainly in Rojas' case) prove they are good enough.

[zambonir]

Yes, it would be delightful if he had "explosive development" but still unlikely. Of course they say that he could play in the majors right now if it was only about defense and baserunning. So I suppose you could argue that if Castellanos doesn't regain his bat a very green Rojas would still be an upgrade (you can make the same argument about Sosa at 3B most of the time) but in that scenario Castellanos would be the DH anyway, they are not going to bench him or only play him against LHP (ditto Bohm). As long as this team has a glut of no-field bats they just don't have a place to put a low-bat OF (or at least not more than one).

Hey, what about Profar? Switch-hitter, can play anywhere, easy to imagine him transitioning to a part-time role (or being traded) once Harper comes back.

Conforto a one-year deal might make more sense than Bellinger on a one-year deal too. There's also Gallo.

I assume they'll take care of the bigger issues first, in any case.

[julio]

I assume they'll take care of the bigger issues first, in any case.

I don't agree. There's no reason to assume that Dombrowski can only work on one thing at a time, or that he'll resolve his issues in some kind of priority sequence.

My assumptions are that this management team can multi-task; that they've identified a set of things the want to get accomplished this off-season; that they're working on all of them; and that they'll resolve issues in whatever order they find solutions.

Obviously, this doesn't apply if some solutions are dependent on the resolution of other issues; but I don't see the need to address Harper's short-term absence in that category. How they deal with Harper's absence doesn't seem to depend on how they populate the middle infield, or who the #4 starting pitcher is.

[zambonir]

I dunno which WIP callers thought Rhys could get you a #2 or even #3 SP but this article doesn't actually convince me they shouldn't trade Rhys - one really good relief pitcher plus throw-ins plus $ to spend on a short-term Harper patch (with some extra leftover for pitching) would be fine. But you'd either have to go with Hall and Bohm at 1B or get serious about trying Schwarber or Castellanos (or both) there.

You want to trade Rhys Hoskins? Why it wouldn’t be easy or wise for the...

[zambonir]

I don't agree. There's no reason to assume that Dombrowski can only work on one thing at a time, or that he'll resolve his issues in some kind of priority sequence.

You don't agree with my assumption which just means you have a different assumption. But that's still mine.

I don't think they have to do it that way, I just think that's how it will go. They're not going to sit around and wait for the SS market to develop; it seems pretty obvious they've got a 1A and 1B (IMO) and will sign one of them quickly. And knowing what that person makes (and, especially, his AAV) will in fact have a big impact on other signings, albeit the pitchers more than OF/DH depth (unless you really want to go after Bellinger or Conforto).

If Dombrowski truly prefers Bogaerts to Turner (and the Red Sox aren't in the way) I think he'll be signed in a matter of days (after free agency begins).

Whereas when it comes to the Harper absence they can go status quo, they can go mid-level FA, they can go trade, or they can decide to exceed the tax again. If the right move presents itself early of course they'll do it but I suspect it's more likely to play out over a longer period of time. Maybe even into spring training (with minor league invite types or a late trade - think Daniel Nava, or David Dellucci or Josh Harrison in seasons past).

[Austinfan]

The issue with Rojas (and the other OF prospects) is merely that given Harper, Castellanos and Schwarber, bringing in a second tier OF on a deal longer than one year would be counter-productive. The best outcome for this coming season is Schwarber in LF, Castellanos in RF, Marsh/Vierling in CF, and until Harper returns, Hall or a one year contract rotating in at DH or the OF (with Schwarber or Castellanos at DH). Hoskins at 1B b/c it's doubtful anyone will give you his value to the Phillies.

Then if Rojas breaks out (I suspect after his AFL showing he'll start in AAA with Ortiz, with Muzzioti back in AA due to lost time) he takes PT from one or more of the other OFs.

Maton will get a long look in ST, Maton is my dark horse, showed he could handle OF, has good pop, a short compact swing, and some upside left, he only has had 1650 minor league PA, another player who both lost a year of development to COVID and who was rushed to the majors. However, as a LH bat his real competition is Hall. If they want a RH bat, Sands could fill in until Harper returns.

[julio]

If Dombrowski truly prefers Bogaerts to Turner (and the Red Sox aren't in the way) I think he'll be signed in a matter of days (after free agency begins).

I don't follow this. Free agency began on 11/10, two weeks ago.

[zambonir]

Ha, my bad. I guess I meant by the end of winter meetings, as I don't think any of the big-name guys will sign (at least not with a new team) before the dog and pony show. And then there's usually a flurry before a few weeks of holiday inactivity. Though it's hard to know what the rhythms might be compared to last year when there was nothing. .