Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[zambonir]

I mean, you wouldn't actually make Conforto your 1B - a position he has never played. If you sign him longer-term you are moving Schwarber or Harper to 1B (which they've also never played, but Conforto's the better OF). He's not going to be cheap and will likely want an opt-out. A situation where playing time isn't guaranteed once Harper comes back likely doesn't work for him.

[Aquapong]

I was missing an I in there. I wanted to trade him.

[Philsmania]

Perhaps November 2021 when some teams rushed to get their shopping done before the lockout is coloring my perspective but it feels like this has been a very slow-moving offseason. With regard to the market for both the premier shortstops (Turner, Correa, Boegarts, Swanson) and the premier starting pitchers (deGrom, Verlander, Rodon), I get the sense that the players and agents are playing chicken and trying to hold out until someone else blinks. I would not be surprised if both markets drag on into January.

[andyb]

I think the lockout played tricks with the timeline last year as some players wanted to get their deal done before the lockout.

There are usually a trickle of signings before Thanksgiving, but major signings have usually been close to the Winter meetings.

[Philsmania]

I think the lockout played tricks with the timeline last year as some players wanted to get their deal done before the lockout.

There are usually a trickle of signings before Thanksgiving, but major signings have usually been close to the Winter meetings.

Ah yes, the Winter Meetings. I remember the good 'ol days when they were a trading bazaar. Now, it's all just agents holding court.

[zambonir]

It's always been a little of both: a flurry of activity around the winter meetings and then holdouts until closer to spring training. Harper wasn't signed until very late of course. Even JT wasn't re-signed until the end of January 2021. Wheeler was snapped up earlier, and Schwarber probably would have been if not for the lockout.

Boras is usually the guy who likes to go slow but Rosenthal argued that he has so many free agents this year that he can't afford to do that. Guys need to come off the board, both his and others.

[Philsmania]

It could probably also be said that some organizations are more patient than others. The Phillies tend to be more on the patient side. See them signing Harper in ST in 2019, signing Realmuto in late-January and all of their work other than Knebel after the lockout. The Mets, on the other hand, like to get things done quickly. See them bowing out of the Realmuto bidding and signing McCann in mid-December 2020 (a move they now might now well regret, aside from them having a top catching prospect) and their signing of Canha, Escobar, Marte and Scherzer before the lockout last year.

[zambonir]

The Phillies were fairly aggressive in both 2018 (Santana and the relievers, Arrieta was a late surprise) and 2019 (Cutch, Segura, eventually trading for JT; they didn't have a lot of choice in terms of letting the Machado/Harper market play out). Ditto 2020 (Didi, Wheeler, both in December). Certain teams need to make a splash; those Phillies did and so did Cohen's Mets.

[Philsmania]

If memory serves me correctly, they traded for Realmuto about a week before ST.

[zambonir]

February 7. But even so they'd already done all that other stuff - and that was still almost a month before Harper signed (and was obviously done with him in mind).

That was still kind of a baffling off-season tbh - trading Crawford for Segura never made that much sense if they were actually still interested in Machado, and getting Cutch never made that much sense if Harper was their top target. The only part they really got right is that Altherr and Williams weren't good enough for either spot anyway.

[EDmuch]

I saw something about the Phils being in on DeGrolm. That seems crazy to me. Anyone else heard anything connecting the Phils to deGrom?

[LoneStarPhan]

We have to remember that agents often drop rumors of interest to hype their clients and pressure interested teams to increase their offer.

[zambonir]

I mean, in theory if they are interested in any top pitcher (MLBTR predictions/possibilities had them on both Rodon and Verlander) they should be interested in all of them. DeGrom might be the one most likely to take a mega one-year (or opt-out) deal though at his age you'd think he'd want to lock down as much as he could.

Generally speaking I do think it's a logical response to the Harper situation. Upgrade the rotation instead of the line-up; better to have the "problem" of surplus pitching than too many bats.

But yes, without a source that could be anything from a random tweet or sports talk radio guy to an agent leak.

[allentown]

Agent's protestations to the contrary, DeGrom is not in a great bargaining position nor is he a good signing at significant $, even for a single season. Some buyer may luck out on a plus season from him, but more likely he fails to pitch 100 innings, as has been the case since 2019. He is a huge gamble for his age 35 season. If the one-year price is reasonable, sure go ahead, but I doubt it will be -- your guess of a one-year mega deal sounds like what will happen. Even though he would allow Phillies to not start Painter until May to cut down on IP, he will be too rich a gamble for Phillies. A serious warning sign for me: although he only pitched 64 innings in 2022, he tired and fell off a lot between August and September. To me that suggests he is still having arm problems. I'd give him a hard pass. I don't consider him one of the premier SP in this FA class.

[zambonir]

Far more likely the Phillies just bring Eflin back (and he seems like much less of a risk by comparison!). Or even Thor, who might have a different arm/stuff after another year's distance from his injury. But that doesn't mean they shouldn't take DeGrom's agent's calls.

The broader question is still the same, might they spend money/years on a pitcher who slots in as the clear #3 - or even #2 - or just bargain-hunt for a #4? I reckon they really need to have a firm idea of what might happen with Nola if they're inclined to go big. MLBTR predictions aside there really hasn't been any rumors about them being interested in Rodon or Verlander either.

[Philsmania]

I haven't been getting the sense that the Phillies plan to swim in the deep end of the SP pool (deGrom, Verlander, Rodon). The two NY teams, the Dodgers and the Giants are most mentioned, as are the two TX teams, to a lesser extent (Astros mentioned on Verlander, Rangers mentioned on deGrom).

[zambonir]

Definitely not, publicly or pundit-wise. The presumption is that Ranger remains the #3 and Painter could end up making the team immediately, with a modest veteran FA for depth ahead of Falter. But there's always "surprise teams." And it does make sense for them to consider addressing the loss of run production (Harper) by upping run prevention (pitching in tandem with playing Sosa at 3B or Vierling in RF more) rather than trying to upgrade over the young bench players.

[allentown]

The Phillies are best served by adding a top SS and a SP. I don't see them getting more than 100 IP out of Painter. (I realize he threw 103 innings in 2022, but it is going to take him more pitches per inning against MLB hitters than against A and AA batters). Perhaps Abel or McGarry can start the year and Painter can begin in May, although both Abel and McGarry both have a problem with too many walks. Eflin a strong possibility. I think with all of that we still need a SP.

[andyb]

Using young players in the bullpen is not the worst thing also. Painter is good enough and efficient enough to start, but maybe McGarry should be in the bullpen but more in the role Eflin filled when he was not closing. 2 innings if we need it. A strikeout if the situation calls for it. 50 outings and 80 innings from the bullpen could be good for the development and workload management of a young pitcher and they can always be stretched out as a starter later.

[andyb]

Kiley goes deeper on Trea here with lots of age/WAR comps:

'It's a never-ending process': How Trea Turner evolved into a potential $300...