Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

Taudawg 2022-11-09 15:49:23 UTC #243

Smart strategy - attach QO offer to a player(s) that undoubtably will turn it down, and sign a comparable player without the QO attached. Keep a high pick, and gain a pick. That's how smartly run teams stay atop the standings.

Chess, not checkers.

zambonir 2022-11-09 16:35:10 UTC #244

Well, because of the Dodgers' tax/payroll situation they only get a fourth-rounder (and at the very end of the round).

Which is also germane to the Phillies and Rhys, if they exceed the tax again this season. I've been saying his trade value (probably two lottery ticket type prospects, a reliever or a bench player/5th starter) isn't much better than his QO, but I'm wrong in that case, and maybe even in general (as it would still only be at the end of the second round, only the revenue-receiving teams get picks at the end of the first).

Right now, assuming they all get QOs, Phillies lose their 2nd and 5th if they sign Turner, Bogarts or Swanson (as well as $1 million in international).

andyb 2022-11-09 17:19:57 UTC #245

I'd certainly explore a deal and give him multiple opt-outs (would prefer he commit to at least 2 years instead of 1). A front-loaded deal paying him $40 million for the first 3 years and then maybe $35 million for 6 or 7 more might be interesting. Maybe go to $45 million for the years before the opt-out.

If he gives the Phillies 2 good years and opts out then we are out of the back end of the contract and have given us a couple of years to see if we have another middle infield prospect (Lee and Bergolla are the top options now). This would let us keep our draft picks and international money.

Aquapong 2022-11-09 17:29:19 UTC #246

If we go that high for Correa, we’re not going to be able to do much else, especially if Hoskins is still here. I don’t even like paying Harper $30 mil a year. The market for top players just keeps going up and up. You could argue Harper is a marketing phenomenon as well as a good player, but I’m not sure Correa has that going in his favor.

zambonir 2022-11-09 17:56:02 UTC #247

If they are going to pay the tax, they can afford it, plus AAV still matters most (Harper's is only $25 million and he is not among the 20 biggest AAV deals in the league - though he might be 21st).

Turner and Correa are both likely to get around the same huge payday, but not losing the picks/$ (and potentially not being tied to him for 8-10 years) would be worth the overpay.

Austinfan 2022-11-09 19:58:20 UTC #248

I hate opt-outs, all the risk is on the team and I haven't seen significant discounts given for one - just say no.
Are any of these players truly elite? If not, figure a serious decline in their early 30s, only top players tend to play well until 35 (if they avoid injury) and after that you're rolling the dice.

Problem is when when a player falls off, as we saw with Castellanos, both their hitting and fielding tend to fall off, and a 4-5 WAR player can quickly become a 1-2 WAR player - Schwarber might only be 1 WAR next year if he "merely" hits 30 HRs if he doesn't raise his OBP.

So you don't want too many 30+ salaries on the team at the same time, we already have 4 starters making over $20M next year who are 30 or older, and are locked up for 2-4 more years.

allentown 2022-11-09 20:55:58 UTC #249

Correa will also be a marketing phenomenon, plus likely increase our odds of signing top LA 16-year olds. Also, $30 million a year is no longer what it was when we signed Harper. The lux tax threshold will continue to increase and more and more teams will exceed it, as the next major increase won't happen until the next labor deal, which will be within the lifetime of Harper's and Correa's deals.

I like andyb's idea of multiple contract outs. We win if we get 3 years of Correa and then he leaves. We win very big in that case. Really true of almost any FA. Usually the initial years are gravy and the late years are dross -- injury being about the only exception (although Castellanos year 1 might be a noninjury exception. Still would have been nice to have a year 1 or year 2 opt out and for him to take it.)

If we go that high on Correa, we don't need to do much else. Low-cost SP and a couple low-cost reliever FAs to compete with our minor leaguers should do it.

To AF: I really do love opt outs. If you don't like long, expensive contracts then you should love them to. Your whole philosophy is that even if you get 3 good years from a 29-30-year old FA on a 5-10 year contract that doom is just around the corner. It is often enough that I'm happy if the guy walks after that and we sign a new expensive FA to replace him.

Austinfan 2022-11-09 21:48:50 UTC #250

I hate opt-outs, they're not mutual options, they're one way for the player, Castellanos wouldn't opt out b/c there would be no market for him - players opt out when they outplay their contract, stay when they don't.

The only reason for Opt-outs is to get a player to accept a discount (since if they outplay that lower contract, they can then become a FA and get a bigger contract), but I haven't seen players give substantial discounts for opt-outs.

A smart franchise puts a reservation price on each FA based on expectations of their future performance and their value to the team (Castellanos should have been valued lower b/c once they signed Schwarber, another 30 year old bad defensive corner OF had less value to the Phillies). And stick to those prices, don't succumb to the "winner's curse' (where the winner of an auction is the one who overvalues the asset).

allentown 2022-11-09 23:00:55 UTC #251

Yes, but that value is incorporated into the entire contract, in order lower the AAV. When the Phillies signed Harper, they knew the odds of him being worth his annual salary in the last 5 years of his contract were very low. It could happen, but not great odds. We likely want Harper for more than 5 years, but if he had an opt out after say 6 years and those 6 years are as good as they've been thus far, causing him to opt out and sign for more elsewhere, we would have gotten the 6 best years at a lower cost than the team he signs with after his opt out. If Castellanos had as opt out after 2 years, he might have a very strong bounce-back 2023 and choose the opt out. Even with the strong 2023 I'd be thrilled to have him opt out, because the odds of 3 more strong seasons are low. A team might bite for more than $60 mill for those 3 years if he is almost as good in 2023 as he was in 2021 -- we bet 5 years on that performance. We might lose a good 2024 on such an opt out, but I think 2025 and 2026 would be a big win for us. I thought 5/$100 mill was stupid at the time. There are a lot of desperate teams willing to make a stupid deal -- we aren't the only guys who have ever overpaid for a fluke career year and committed to 5 years. It's the greater idiot thesis.

I don't think the team loses if a player opts out. They didn't want the out years in most cases, it was just the cost of getting the deal done.

Taudawg 2022-11-09 23:04:32 UTC #252

Austinfan 2022-11-09 23:33:27 UTC #253

Phillies also outrighted five players: right-handers Mark Appel and Hans Crouse, lefties Kent Emanuel and Damon Jones, along with infielder Yairo Munoz.

Not sure any have a market, so they could resign them for a spring invite and AAA ball if they want to.

Austinfan 2022-11-09 23:46:07 UTC #254

Vasquez is 29, struggled in ML stints, but has a tremendous K ratio the last two years in AAA.

“He survives with a plus curveball that comes in with plenty of break,” wrote Summers. “Hitters know it’s coming, yet the movement makes it hard to square up or even elevate. Vasquez slows the game down dramatically and disrupts a hitter’s tempo to his advantage. He’ll surprise a batter with a straight-moving mid-80s fastball here and there, and that just makes his primary play up even more.”

Ortiz 27, was a #30 pick by the Rangers (the link is to the wrong Luis Ortiz), he's struggled in AAA ball - but I think it's the PCL.

"Ortiz's arsenal features a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and sinker. However, he almost exclusively throws his four-seamer, which sits in the mid-90s, and slider during his outings.'

Finished strong last year, Ortiz, who hasn’t allowed a run at Triple-A Sacramento since June (23 consecutive scoreless innings), got word of his promotion . . .

zambonir 2022-11-10 01:44:05 UTC #255

Former Phillie Andrew Vasquez

Per the MLBTR story Crouse and Jones remain in the system automatically.

julio 2022-11-10 03:19:34 UTC #256

Yes, Crouse and Jones aren't eligible for minor league free agency until 2024 (e.g., next year). Appel, Emanuel, and Munoz will presumably become minor league free agents tomorrow at 5 pm (along with several other guys on the AAA roster).

zambonir 2022-11-10 03:33:17 UTC #257

Jayson Stark apparently talking up Trea Turner's interest in the Phillies on the radio today.

LoneStarPhan 2022-11-10 05:56:15 UTC #258

As happens every off season, the team will sign a number of minor league free agents, both their own and those from other organizations, to minor league contracts for next year. So maybe one or more of Appel, Emanuel, or Munoz will be resigned to a minor league contract.

julio 2022-11-10 06:03:41 UTC #259

A large chunk of the AAA roster is minor league veterans; look for a lot of guys leaving, and lots of different faces on the AAA roster come spring.

Aquapong 2022-11-10 12:21:30 UTC #260

40 man at 36. Still a few guys who wouldn’t be big losses that could be dfa’d. The intrigue starts at 5pm.

zambonir 2022-11-10 13:38:07 UTC #261

Like, a ton (in the bullpen) really. I imagine they might pick off some other players in addition to needing to protect guys. One or two minor trades maybe? (A catcher? Ortiz?)

fish 2022-11-10 14:51:17 UTC #262

For those kids that like to vacation in Puerto Rico?