Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[zambonir]

Gelb thinks the Phillies will exceed the tax again. Shortstop, bullpen, back-end starter. They won't pick up Jean's option and probably aren't that interested in bringing him back (would even give Sosa a look at 2B if they don't sign a big SS FA). Two big questions, Harper and Wheeler (if he needs to ramp down for part of the off-season). Painter will have a shot to make it in Clearwater.

Phillies offseason primer: Key decisions, goals for club as it eyes World Series...

[mdougherty12]

There isn’t really anyone interesting in terms of free agents at 3B right now. Not much of interest for corner OFs either (Judge seems unrealistic), I suppose a significant trade for someone at one of those spots is possible:

I think the OFs I mentioned above (Nimmo, Conforto, Benitendi) would all be fine if you were seriously ready to move Schwarber to 1B but it would only be incremental improvement (upgrading your LF defense, getting Nick out of the field, not actually improving 1B at all).

I think any of those players would be fine in a vacuum, but you would effectively be replacing one of your best RH hitters (Hoskins) with yet another LH hitter (Nimmo, Conforto, Benintendi) in a lineup that already tilts to the left side.

[mdougherty12]

Makes more sense to keep Hoskins one more year, mabye give Hall some PT against RHPs.
Buys a year for Rojas, Ortiz, De La Cruz and Muzzioti, who should all be in AAA this summer.
But I wouldn't consider extending Hoskins, at $12M he's fine, at $20+M for 5 years at 31 a disaster.

Assuming Hoskins is back, I can't imagine Darick Hall even making the active roster absent an injury. The Phils already have more than enough 1B/DH types, and the only hitters you might PH for late in a game are also left-handed (Marsh and Stott). Hall will be AAA injury insurance in 2023.

[phillychuck]

We need to keep in mind with respect to Stott's defense, that as he ages he may loose a half-step of quickness, but as guys age and play and practice more with major-leaguers, their positioning and footwork improves, as does their consistency. I'd expect that Stott could play SS in the big leagues for the next decade. Let's work on the bat and move him to 2B only if a superstar signing forces him there...

[andyb]

RELEASED: #Phillies have released RHP Chris Devenski, RHP Kyle Gibson, LHP Brad Hand, RHP Corey Knebel, RHP David Robertson and RHP Noah Syndergaard.

— MLB Transaction Tracker ( @MLBMovesTracker ) November 6, 2022

Eflin declines the mutual option also, so he is a free agent. Nola option was exercised.

And the Japanese guy is likely to be posted:

Orix Buffaloes May Post Masataka Yoshida For MLB Teams

[julio]

andyb, I don't know what that source is, but with regard to the "releases," it's just completely wrong.

Devenski, Gibson, Hand, Knebel, Robertson, and Syndergaard became free agents at 9 am yesterday. The official transactions pages show them as "electing" free agency, but it's automatic. None of them were "released," because as of 9 am yesterday, none of them were under contract.

Just a semantic point... except that saying the Phillies released them implies the Phillies made a decision, a choice. This is not correct.

The news on options is as expected. Lauber has confirmed the Eflin part:

Zach Eflin has declined his half of a $15 million mutual option with the #Phillies . He's a free agent. @JonHeyman first.

— Scott Lauber ( @ScottLauber ) November 7, 2022

[Austinfan]

Decade might be pushing it, but he'll be 25 in 2023, 4-5 years of slightly above average defense is feasible.

Real problem is all those expensive LA IFs they've signed over an extended period, none have come close to the majors.

Lee at 2B is a possibility, but he's 2-3 years away.

Bergolla??? Too early to tell, but if he's for real he should be a fast riser with a $2M bonus.

Pouaka-Grego is off to a good start but a long way away.

Good thing they picked up Sosa, because not much IF help coming for 3 years.

[andyb]

I don't know what that source is, but with regard to the "releases," it's just completely wrong.

Just semantics. They are free agents and as you said it is automatic.

[julio]

Just semantics. They are free agents and as you said it is automatic.

Well, with the caveat that the source characterizing free agents as having been released suggests that the source really doesn't understand how MLB free agency works; for me at least, that calls into question their reliability.

I note that the Nola option pickup has been reported by Heyman (although Cot's reports the 2023 option as $16 million, not the $18 million Heyman reports):

Phillies pick up Aaron Nola $18M option

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) November 7, 2022

[zambonir]

There's no source, just some dude on Twitter misreading a transactions wire.

I wonder if they are actually having discussions with Segura about what kind of alternative offer he'd accept. I suppose they could also be double-checking that nobody wants to trade for him.

[andyb]

A Trea Turner sizzle reel narrated by Jon Hamm was sent to teams earlier today, and it is awesome. https://t.co/o88re9Fz17

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) November 7, 2022

[Patchmk88]

Interesting the Eflin declined his half of the mutual option. I would have figured it would be the other way around. I’d personally like to resign him if we could get him for 3 years at about 12-13 per year.

[zambonir]

It's typically a formality for both sides, I'm sure Eflin's agent knew the Phillies weren't going to either.

[BostonRoss]

It's important to recognize that absent one of them moving to 1B, the Phillies will have bad defense at both corner OF spots because Harper isn't really good either, even pre-injury. In 2021, Harper, Schwarber, and Castellanos had identical dWAR of -1.3. Assuming the defense will be much better when Harper is back in the OF is not realistic. That is one of the reasons the Castellanos signing didn't make sense.

That said, it's easy to live with a LF who can't field. Every Phillies pennant winning team going back to the Whiz Kids has had a bad defensive LF, most of them really bad, with one exception, Milt Thompson (though Incaviglia was pretty bad).

[zambonir]

That said, it's easy to live with a LF who can't field. Every Phillies pennant winning team going back to the Whiz Kids has had a bad defensive LF, most of them really bad, with one exception, Milt Thompson (though Incaviglia was pretty bad).

Yeah I still don't really understand why neither Hoskins nor Bohm were LF options, though we saw the former with our own eyes. I wonder if he was actually even worse than Schwarber (or would at least have become as good with more time).

Moot once they added Castellanos to Schwarber though.

Bryce was decent in '19 and '20- positive WAR even, that first year! - but now he's 30 and injured and on the path to DH/1B/LF regardless probably.

[Taudawg]

Phillies Decline Option On Jean Segura

[zambonir]

First day I've woken up to zero posts in a long time!

How 'bout Robert Suarez on the Phillies? He opted out of his $5 million option. He's 32 (and an MLB rookie!) and also missed time with injury, so probably a risky but somewhat affordable three-year contract (which I assume is what he'd want).

[Taudawg]

I am always skeptical of first year success by players arriving from international leagues, much like rookies who take the league by storm (ie Bohm) The only projection available at this point is the Marcel model - which does suggest some decline in 2nd year.

[zambonir]

I guess I don't find that worrisome with a reliever, especially one with stuff. I don't think the league is going to figure him out, as it were. Just the normal concerns about variance and health/wear. Caveat emptor but no more so than with Bradley, Kintzler, Kennedy, Neris, Knebel, Robertson, Familia, Hand (i.e. whomever the equivalents of those 2021/2022 guys are this time).

[zambonir]

Another factor in Correa's favor - he was already QO'ed last year.

Thus, the Dodgers could sign Correa without losing draft picks and international bonus pool money, as opposed to Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson, both of whom are virtually certain to receive qualifying offers. The Dodgers also are likely to extend a qualifying offer to their incumbent shortstop, Trea Turner

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