Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[BostonRoss]

Also, regarding Bohm, I have never been as high on him as some people are. But I think he has to be the third baseman in 2023 (and hopefully well beyond). His power is limited and he doesn't walk a lot; so he would be below average offensively at 1B. Sure, he would be better defensively at 1B than Hoskins or Schwarber, but then we would have to find a decent defensive 3B who could provide as much offense as Hoskins. I also think Bohm is young enough that he can improve his 3B defense--maybe he already is improving.

[BostonRoss]

I think Stott is a decent SS but not a defensive whiz. He may have appeared better because of the people surrounding him on defense.

[flyers19rw]

The negativity around Castellanos is too strong. Some of the posts are citing his poor defense. Really? AIR he made some fantastic catches in the OF during the POs. Overall he played the position about a well as could be expected.
His hitting was off all season when compared to his career numbers. Maybe it was due to the lack of a full ST or even an injury but no one has ever complained about his hitting until this season. Like Smoltz pointed out during the PO broadcasts, the odds of him bouncing back next season are pretty strong.

[andyb]

Also, regarding Bohm, I have never been as high on him as some people are. But I think he has to be the third baseman in 2023 (and hopefully well beyond). His power is limited and he doesn't walk a lot; so he would be below average offensively at 1B

I agree though I think there is some offensive upside there. The aggressive approach helped him, but his pitch recognition skills should improve and it is a good swing. 285/350/450 might be possible.

Still keep him at 3B though. Some additional improvements should be possible defensively. He'll never be great, but I am also fine with keeping him through his inexpensive arbitration years. If his salary rises above $10 million he'll have to be better defensively to stay there.

[BostonRoss]

I agree. He’s young and athletic enough that he can improve his defense.

[zambonir]

The negativity around Castellanos is too strong. Some of the posts are citing his poor defense. Really? AIR he made some fantastic catches in the OF during the POs. Overall he played the position about a well as could be expected.

Small sample, eye test. Granted defensive stats are imperfect, but they measure the complete picture over 162 games, not just a few great catches at crucial times. And some of those catches, a better defender would have made more easily.

That said, he's not supposed to play the OF, and he can bounce back. Will he be worth the contract? No? A playable DH in 2023 and 2024? Let's hope.

And hey, as I posted above, per DRS, he's better than Schwarber! If Bryce is good to go, a Phillies team where Schwarbs and Castellanos share LF/DH most of the time (with a few looks for JT or Bohm) and Nick doesn't play more than 50 games in the field is a better team. But that would also be true of Schwarber.

By Castellanos's own admission he was better on defense in the playoffs because he was more mentally ready. That ought to be fixable too. Of course we've seen similar situations with Black and Latin players, and they get ripped (not that Nick's exactly popular).

One thing we have to take away from this World Series is that this team probably can't score six runs a game in a long series against a great team. The Padres were not a great team. The Braves' pitching was a mess when we caught them. But to reach its main goals going forward - a division title, a World Series - the defense needs to get better somehow.

I'm more concerned about Bohm's offense than his defense. Looking at both his post-July numbers and his platoon splits I just don't see the upside yet. Certainly he gets another year, and definitely he belongs at 3B instead of 1B if all else is equal, but on this Phillies team everyone is square peg except Harper and Stott (even our two CFs are probably better in the corners, but they would have to hit more too).

[allentown]

Castellanos could well bounce back. Good chance 2022 is stress of meeting large contract or lingering injury. I don't buy the no ST argument. He had 162 games to get over that. If he can't bounce back, his remaining $80 mill makes him a huge albatross. If he hits, he won't be the first poor-fielding corner OF the Phillies have employed. My main cause for optimism about a bounce back is that his performance drop was so huge. Perhaps he just gives us midway between 2021 and 2022. How often does a 29-year old drop 240 OPS points. Then again, 2021 was a fairly extreme outlier It looks like, if he fully returns to 'normal', that we can reasonably expect at best an .800 OPS from him.

[Aquapong]

We lose Segura, Thor, Eflin, Robertson, and Gibson.

Correa and Bassitt is who I’d target in FA.

There are a pretty good amount of decent bp pitchers out there. The trick is picking the right 2 or 3.

We should also start exploring an extension with Suarez knowing he can be converted to a late inning bp guy.

LF Schwarbs
CF Marsh/Vierling
RF Harper hopefully
OF bench Vierling/Marsh, Castellanos
1B Hall/Bohm, maybe even JT to give him some days away from C. Poor Stubbs has been solid and never gets to play.
C JT and Stubbs
2B Stott
SS Correa
3B Bohm, Sosa when Bohm isn’t there.
INF bench Sosa, Hall…depends on who isn’t playing. Maton has one more option where Munoz doesn’t. Guthrie may also figure in but I’m not opposed to an upgrade in the bench outfield dept.

SP Wheeler, Nola, Bassitt, Suarez, Falter. Hopefully some Minor league offer reclamation projects. We can stash Falter in AAA one more year if one of the reclamation guys works out in ST.

BP Alvarado, Dominguez, Brogdon, Belatti, and a few free agents. There may be an argument for McGarry here, we’ll see in ST. Nelson could be a swing man, but he’s also probe to streaks of wildness. Even if they aren’t on the team in ST, hopefully McGarry and Painter figure in later in the season. Maybe Abel starts to see some spot starts or something.

[fish]

I've flip flopped on Hoskins. He became a real part of their personality and success, but he continues to also be at the center of everything when it goes wrong (poor play, disappearing production). Unless they sign someone that requires them to move Schwarber to first, Jose Abreu looks awfully appealing to me on a 3 year deal- and no compensation lost.

If the Phils regroup and make a push again next year, I think Painter, Abel, McGarry ...and any other potential new face in the bullpen will play a critical role to refresh the bullpen and rotation as the season goes. Nola and Wheeler pitched so much this year that they'll probably need a reduced workload next year if they are going to be strong all year. Everyone but Suarez and Brodgdon looked gassed by the final game.

Carlos Rodon would be a dream, but I'd bet he signs a long term deal with the potential of being toast after the second year of it.

[andyb]

Jose Abreu looks awfully appealing to me on a 3 year deal- and no compensation lost.

I just don't think we should consider adding any 1B types with Schwarber, Castellanos, and Harper all potentially playing there in the future (Harper if his arm does not come around).

[zambonir]

If he hits, he won't be the first poor-fielding corner OF the Phillies have employed.

Regardless of the bounce-back, it would be bad news if Castellanos plays the OF. That means Harper can't. If Bryce is out for a month or two, Vierling should play RF more. If Bryce is once again a full-time DH, that's a problem.

And yeah we are probably not getting 138 or 153 OPS+ Castellanos regardless. At 120 he's not really that huge an asset (in that you could find a DH with more offense or just a better OF). But where did all that 2021 power come from?

[Austinfan]

Suarez is a starter period, why would you move him to the pen?
He has an efficient motion that lends itself to long-term durability (not a max effort guy).
And when he's on, he's almost unhittable as he showed in the post-season.

Stott is slightly above average defensively, and should stay at that level for 3-4 years, by 30 you'll have to move him to 2B b/c he can't afford to lose any range. But I expect him to hit much better, he was rushed to the majors and suffered for it.

Bohm really iimproved his fielding the last couple months and was solid in the post-season. One thing to take into account projecting young players is their work ethic - he showed he was willing to do what it took to improve. I think he'll add power the next few years, enough to be a 15-20 HR guy. Needs to be more selective at the plate.

Can't count on the young pitchers for anything in 2023, not that one or two won't emerge, but which one, when and to what extent? Best move is to build a great AAA roster and let players force their way into the majors - we had too many players rushed last season and it showed - better playing every day than glued to the bench in Philly.

[zambonir]

Gosh, Harper could play 1B as soon as this year couldn't he? We keep saying Schwarber but if his main issue is throwing from RF why not try that?

Small thing but I doubt Yairo Munoz gets tendered.

[andyb]

Small thing but I doubt Yairo Munoz gets tendered.

Agree. FYI here are the MLB trade rumor estimates. I think we retain everyone else including Coonrod.

Jose Alvarado (5.082): $3.2MM
Rhys Hoskins (5.053): $12.6MM
Seranthony Dominguez (4.131): $2MM
Ranger Suarez (3.112): $3.5MM
Sam Coonrod (3.078): $800K
Yairo Munoz (3.003): $1MM
Edmundo Sosa (2.140): $1MM

I would explore multi-year deals with Suarez and Dominguez. Maybe even Alvarado.

[zambonir]

See, the other nice thing about Rhys not being a perfect player is the Phillies could try to squeeze him a little in arbitration. Rhys had the 11th-best OPS and 13th-highest WAR amongst major league 1B - nothing earth-shattering, but still a key bat-first regular - and will still be mighty affordable compared to Rizzo or Abreu (or Olson or Freeman). And compared to Schwarber and Castellanos!

You could go out and get Josh Bell or Trey Mancini if you trade him but how much money does that really save?

[andyb]

You could have Castellanos as a RH platoon partner to Hall and go get the Japanese OF too. I am undecided whether he is a starter or more of a offense-first 4th OF.

[Austinfan]

Makes more sense to keep Hoskins one more year, mabye give Hall some PT against RHPs.
Buys a year for Rojas, Ortiz, De La Cruz and Muzzioti, who should all be in AAA this summer.
But I wouldn't consider extending Hoskins, at $12M he's fine, at $20+M for 5 years at 31 a disaster.

[EDmuch]

I think a key point is how inexpensive Hoskins is for his level of production. I mean 30 home runs for $11 million is a pretty good deal. I understand that Hoskins is too expensive for his production when you get to $20 million. But if we could keep. him around for another 3 years at $15 million I don't think it is a bad deal at all.

[zambonir]

Yeah I don't think he takes that deal though. Maybe the money, but he'd want 4-5 years (or somewhat more money for just three).

He won't be here in 2024 but I think he should be in 2023. QO him and who knows, if his market craters, maybe he accepts. Otherwise, the pick is probably just as good as anything you'd get for him in trade.

[bigegypt0417]

Agreed!

I'm not really thinking about extending Hoskins.

Keep him for '23 and add another bat to replace the potential loss of Segura.