Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

Lucky_Beagle 2022-11-07 00:04:28 UTC #183

Who is going to give up a Pena like player? The team that has him would try to move the older more expensive player first or find a way to play both. Teams need to develop their own players of this caliber.

zambonir 2022-11-07 00:24:13 UTC #184

Like I said, fantasy baseball. But it sometimes happens. There's a middle ground between a Pena and a Marsh. And it's also the front office's job to find overlooked or change-of-scenery guys. I think Andy posted it in the first place because practically every good trade Dombrowski has made so far except for the two pitching rentals fits that same description (Alvarado, Sosa, Marsh). He was merely suggesting a bolder move.

flyers19rw 2022-11-07 00:47:39 UTC #185

The Phillies might have a young budding star hitter in O’Hoppe. Granted that he didn’t project that well at catcher but 1B could be an option and the guy can hit with power. We can only hope that Marsh can live up to expectations/hopes or the organization suffered a loss.

Dirk41 2022-11-07 00:48:43 UTC #186

Isiah-Kiner Falefa?

zambonir 2022-11-07 01:08:06 UTC #187

This is a good reminder just from a timing perspective - if Segura is in the Phillies' plans at all they either need to exercise his option or each a new deal on the 10th. If they pay the buyout that doesn't mean he can't come back, but it becomes a lot less likely.

zambonir 2022-11-07 01:15:07 UTC #188

He wasn't really better than Sosa, was he? (Had Sosa gotten 500 ABs). But sure, I think that kind of shows both sides of it. In no way are either of those guys an acceptable substitute for an All-Star free agent. But they could still improve the team short, medium and long-term.

allentown 2022-11-07 01:38:05 UTC #189

Marsh was a +1.6 bWAR player for the year as a whole. If we project his Phillies time to a full season, then he was about a 3 WAR player, assuming Vierling gets about 30% of ABs in a CF platoon.

donaldorc 2022-11-07 01:55:07 UTC #190

"Most fun I've ever had playing baseball." JT Realmuto.

Dirk41 2022-11-07 02:11:25 UTC #191

We need a Hawaiian, though....

Austinfan 2022-11-07 04:08:01 UTC #192

They're crazy if they re-up Segura, at his age there's only one direction moving forward.
I'd rather go with Maton/Sosa/Guthrie. Probably get the same production for $15M less.

I expect they'll be under the cap, the penalties start to add up, shed salary this season, and next off-season have the flexibility to make another big move after you know how the kids develop.

Meanwhile, pick up a SP and RP on short-term deals for depth, try to bring back Eflin.

zambonir 2022-11-07 05:01:04 UTC #193

If you pick up Segura's option you are overpaying him, but not by that much (his WAR value this year was close to $14 million) and only for one year. If you tear it up and bring him back it won't be for more than $10 million, perhaps with a second season. But it's far more likely they are going to sign one of the big shortstops.

If they do bring back Segura or even go with the Sosa/Maton idea, you could trade Hoskins and spend all that $ on a new leftfielder or 3B.

mdougherty12 2022-11-07 06:18:08 UTC #194

There isn’t really anyone interesting in terms of free agents at 3B right now. Not much of interest for corner OFs either (Judge seems unrealistic), I suppose a significant trade for someone at one of those spots is possible:

andyb 2022-11-07 12:42:17 UTC #195

Because the way to win is to have a roster of players in their late 20s who are in the prime of their career. Turner's contract would start at 30. Unlike AF I would do other things with the money. Trading for an infield version of Marsh could give you another core player locked up for 4+ years in their prime. Other money could be used on another top starter, re-signing Nola, and perhaps extending some younger players (Dominguez, Stott?).

There are many ways to do this. It might be easier to fill the 2B hole than to go for a top SS.

phillychuck 2022-11-07 13:30:05 UTC #196

What do Framber Valdez, Peña, Alvarez, and C. Javier have in common that is different than the players the Phils' have on the roster? They are from a productive LA pipeline, a couple of them obscure signings that somehow hit (coaching or chemicals...?). We have to open up that pipeline in Philly, and figure out how to develop bottom-of-the-roster minor leaguers into all-stars.They acquired Alvarez for a washed-up 30-year-old relief pitcher from the Dodgers...

zambonir 2022-11-07 13:36:09 UTC #197

I think the OFs I mentioned above (Nimmo, Conforto, Benitendi) would all be fine if you were seriously ready to move Schwarber to 1B but it would only be incremental improvement (upgrading your LF defense, getting Nick out of the field, not actually improving 1B at all).

Schwarber an offensive upgrade but probably would be worse defensively; he's also worse defensively than Rhys at his current position, we just don't see the way that played out on a daily basis in terms of range vs. Rhys's obvious mistakes. Schwarber was the second-worst LF for DRS in baseball (and there are a lot of LFs), minus 14 runs. Castellanos was second-worst RF, but minus 8. Rhys Hoskins? +3, 9th-best in MLB at 1B.

That's the bottom line with Rhys - is there any 1B who would actually be better, whether from the current roster or elsewhere?

But if you did move on from Rhys and brought Segura back for less than $10 million you might be able to afford both Bogaerts and a LF (maybe not one of those three guys but a solid regular to provide better defense 70% of the time, with Castellanos the rest).

In the Athletic's shortstop round-up Correa is the only guy they think has a long shelf life (as a shortstop and in general). Turner will start losing speed (which will cost him infield hits that are a big part of his offense and possibly lead to a position change) and Bogaerts is already bad enough defensively that he probably shouldn't play SS. If you go SS I think Ed is right that Swanson is the guy. If it is Bogaerts he should probably be the 2B (or that's your 3B if Bohm moves and you keep Segura).

allentown 2022-11-07 13:48:41 UTC #198

I'd go Correa and lose Segura. The Phillies have done well signing primo FAs, the lesser signings not nearly as much.

I wouldn't trade any of our top 3 minor league SPs. Use $, not our scarce plus minor league talent.

None of the bigger FA OFs interest me. Too much adding to our current problem with Castellanos.

Keep Hoskins at least for 2023. Need to preserve our playoff vibe and Hoskins is far from the top of our list of needs.

We need to add pitching, although I'm counting on all of our big 3 minor league SP by some time in 2023.

We need to actively defend our NL pennant.

zambonir 2022-11-07 13:56:29 UTC #199

We both wanted Correa last year and the Phillies didn't even sniff him (of course they still had Didi as well as Stott then). He's a Boras guy so the possibility is certainly there. The Dombrowski/Bogaerts relationship is probably not to be discounted either (though DD is 0 for 1 in that regard so far).

phillychuck 2022-11-07 13:58:16 UTC #200

Allentown, I don't think Abel will be ready this season, but Painter and McGarry and a couple of high potential under-the-radar guys may be arriving. If we are losing Thor, Gibson, and Eflin we need at least one established MLB arm to slot in as a #4/5/6/7 starter, maybe 2. I'm intrigued by Eflin and would explore ways of keeping him around. Painter and NcGarry will still be pitching with pretty severe innings limits, so I don't know if they can be counted on for late-season games, either. Was Thor's production in 2022 worth Ben Brown's in 2023-2029? I guess we'll see.

andyb 2022-11-07 14:04:13 UTC #201

A big question is how do scouts evaluate Stott's defense. My guess is he can be an average starting SS defensively but not much more. If we gamble that Stott should play SS instead of 2B, a 2B is much less expensive to acquire.

Would Pittsburgh consider a Nick Gonzalez for McGarry trade? Prospect for prospect trades are rare, but there might be a match. Cleveland has a bunch of young infielders too.

BostonRoss 2022-11-07 14:24:23 UTC #202

This is pretty close to where I am. Segura was a good player for the Phillies, and he was probably their best defensive player the last couple of years other than JT. (Of course the bar was set quite low.) But he'll be 33 at the beginning of next season, and his post-injury performance was not very good this year.

I wanted Correa last off-season, and he is still the best available infielder. It gives me pause to think that the Phillies didn't seem to pursue him last season, and it was just strange where he ended up. He signed late, and I couldn't figure out why the Phillies chose Castellanos then. I hope their thinking has evolved. Of course, we don't know whether Correa even wants to come to Philly (though they must be a more attractive now than last off-season), and he might be prohibitively expensive. My second choice would be Swanson, but I'd be OK with Turner or Bogaerts if the price is right. Any of them would be a big upgrade over Segura.

I also agree with sticking with Hoskins. He is what he is; he'll have long hot and cold streaks, and he can fit into thios lineup (perhaps lower).

I still think signing Castellanos was a mistake, but I think we have to stick with him. Paying for another defensive liability in the corner outfield would be compounding the mistake. Nick is a decent bounce back candidate, and if he doesn't, he may find himself playing less. I have zero interest in paying him to play for someone else.

I would certainly add some pitching, but not a super high salary type. It would be awesome to be able to bring up one or more of the big three SP prospects while Nola and Wheeler are still going strong, which would take some of the pressure off them to be a savior. I do, however, think it's unlikely that all three will pan out; I can't imagine I'd say all three of any group of pitching prospects anywhere, anytime, would become stars. But I have high hopes for each of them, especially Painter.