Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[Philsmania]

I think deGrom is likely to sign a deal with an opt-out after one year. If Verlander doesn't stay in Houston, I think he goes to NY or LA...or dark horse Baltimore since he's from around Richmond.

[zambonir]

No way Dombrowski runs it back with (mostly) same squad next year. He’s a smart guy, knows the Braves are a better team, and the Mets may spend 300 mil next year. The Phillies run from 6th seed to World Series isn’t the path to try and duplicate. The Phillies will attempt to build a division winner.

That will certainly be the fun of it, but it remains to be seen if they stay over the CBT, or how relentless he is (in terms of making a big trade). Certainly his experience in Boston is bound to inform things too (but without the ownership conflict). The fact that the clubhouse culture seems solid is also a serious consideration (particularly with regards to Hoskins and Castellanos).

I imagine the Phillies' first off-season move will actually be Dombrowski's extension. Then it will be interesting to see if talks to open with Nola.

[flyers19rw]

One thing that needs to be taken into the equation when planning for next season is the potential impact, on offense and defense, of the new mandates on player placement in the IF. It's going to mandate that the already leaky defense of the Phillies has to be improved. Which means that Hoskins can't play 1B. On offense, it probably means that Schwarber and Harper are going to get more hits. Does that make Schwabs a legitimate lead off hitter or should he be pushed downing the order? DD and his analytics guys are going to have to make some tough calls as they put the roster together for next season.
A positive is for the first time in a while the organization has most of the arms that it needs for '23 inside of itself. Wheeler, Ranger and Nola are locks to be three starters. Other guys can be brought in to be placeholders until the big three in the minors show up. Even in the BP, there look to be the key guys here that can be built around. Hopefully Alvarado doesn't blow up after last night's HR.

[nycphils]

Carlos Correa is the youngest of the SS available - about a 6 WAR player it looks like. Would he take 8 years @$240m from the Phils? - would be 35 at the end of the deal

[Taudawg]

The earliest of early odds for 2023 World Series Championship - Phillies seventh +1300
Dodgers early favorite at +500

A couple other interesting tidbits. Phillies ended up playing 4th toughest schedule in 2022. Overall opponent win percentage was .510. The 2023 schedule has them lined up against .505 winning percentage (based on 2022 standings).

[zambonir]

I certainly see Correa as a guy who can age reasonably well (as he moves down the defensive spectrum). There was not even a hint of interest (from either side) last year, but that was then....

I'm not sure the shift ban has any particular affect on Hoskins. His shortcomings have tended to show themselves around the base; those balls that a 2B or the shifted SS/3B might have gotten to are just not going to be gotten to be anybody - and certainly not by anybody else the Phillies might put at 1B.

Ironically Bohm might be the only candidate who might provide better defense there, both given his length and that he'd be moving over from a more difficult position. If we're not being sentimental about anyone, a Bohm/Hall platoon or a Bohm/Schwarber platoon with Turner at SS and a new 3B (platooning with Sosa), or Turner at 3B and Segura coming back, is probably a better infield overall. Even if it still leaves you with Castellanos at DH. But as bad as Castellanos was, he's still more playable against RHP than Bohm was. We'd like to believe Bohm got better as the year wore on, but that's not really what happened after July, even though he was one of the better hitters in the Series.

[allentown]

We can all wish for a huge, sustainable international pipeline, but it ain't here yet and the chances of it 2-3 years from now seems slim.

After misjudging or misdeveloping just about every high $ LA signing, I am still amazed that we haven't changed leadership there. It is as if we have zero idea of what to look for in an LA prospect. We are the blind squirrel who never finds an expensive nut. With all the other changes from the old, unsuccessful organization, why the LA operation continues as is is a great mystery.

[allentown]

I don't think you can sign him for that. More like $320 million/8 years. I'd do 240/8 in a microsecond.

[zambonir]

I don't think you can sign him for that. More like $320 million/8 years. I'd do 240/8 in a microsecond.

Bowden went with 10 years, $327 million. 10/320 is actually what MLBTR predicted before this season.

I've got to assume Sal continues to keep his job because he really isn't to blame, or in charge. The Phillies lifer thing really shouldn't be the reason at this point. He is more like the COO or managing director of that particular division, and the real failures have been by any number of GMs and assistant GMs and Presidents (both from a scouting and money standpoint). Minnitti took the fall most recently (and deservedly) and it is Velandia's portfolio now. And he seems like a good one.

[andyb]

Bowden went with 10 years, $327 million. 10/320 is actually what MLBTR predicted before this season.

I guess the question with Correa is much more about what he wants to do with opt outs. 10/327 is not unreasonable. I wonder if a long deal at that length that is front-loaded (like 3/120) would be possible.

There is probably a case to look more at Boegarts because Dombrowski has history there. Figure he'll cost a little less and Turner's relationship with Bryce might be less important than the GM's experience.

My guess is Dombrowski's preference might be trade before free agent. Could he swap a pitching prospect like Abel for a young infielder with a little major league experience? We would need someone with a track record better than Marsh in return, but DD loves deals like that (trading prospects for young veterans).

[zambonir]

If the mods think we need a non-Phillies hot stove feel free to move but I feel like both rumors and the general motion of the marketplace affect what the Phils might do both directly and indirectly.

The #Mets are closing in on re-signing All-Star closer Edwin Diaz to a 5-year, $102 million contract.
It will be the largest contract for a reliever in history.

— Bob Nightengale ( @BNightengale ) November 6, 2022

[xogfog]

To me the biggest question is whether the Phillies will want to be repeat offenders of paying the luxury tax. It is worse every year you do. If they are okay with it, then I expect Hoskins will be back. There aren't great options for another first baseman either in free agency that will cost less than Hoskins or on the roster. If they want to sign Turner, they might be able to with Segura, Gibson, Thor, Knuble, Hand, etc... coming off the books. I think McGarry will make the team out of spring training so there is one cheap starter. Painter might as well if he dominates in spring training like he has at every level. If not, he'll probably be up by mid=season. They can survive with Falter until that happens.

They will have to bargain shop for bench upgrades. A multiposition glove first player who can play 1B as one of his positions would be good as a late inning replacement for Hoskins.

Hard to believe spring training is just around the corner.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Hard to believe spring training is just around the corner.

Hard to believe the Phillies played into November.

[Austinfan]

The one thing they could use is a true leadoff hitter, someone with speed and an OBP > .350.
You could then bat Schwarber in the 2 slot.
And with the 1B holding the runner, and the SS forced to play on the other side of 2B, pull to your heart's content.

Maybe Rojas in a year.

[julio]

Hard to believe the Phillies played into November.

Annoying that anybody played baseball into November.

[donaldorc]

Annoying that anybody played baseball into November.

With global warming, not a problem anymore.

[Dirk41]

We know how that usually works out. Good luck to them

[phillychuck]

Personally, I found it the opposite of annoying this year! The results; those were annoying in the extreme.

[EDmuch]

Why would DD trade a top pitching prospect to get a “young infielder with potential” when he can get a sure thing like Turner without surrendering a prome pitching prospect?

[zambonir]

He didn't say "potential," he said some major league experience and track record. And, the "young" part is important. Turner is going to be 30 next season and the money is still not nothing. The shelf-life of this free agent core is still a lot shorter than the contract you are going to have to give out to the next one.

This is fantasy baseball stuff of course but having just watched the Astros, wouldn't it be nice to have a 25 year-old player like Alvarez or a 22-year old player like Pena? Easier said than done of course but if you could find a team that has someone like that blocked or redundant of course you'd give up someone equally good from your own area of depth (though, admittedly, NSTAAPP so you need volume). The Marsh deal was a more modest version of that.

A FA SS is still much simpler of course. But to aggressively chase 100 wins and an NL East title a creative trade might have to happen too.