Phillies at the Trade Deadline

[zambonir]

It's a choice that's long overdue, IMO. For the team they built from 2019-2020 they were both too conservative and too thrifty (not sure the 2019 was worth saving, but they fired the coaches and manager like it was). The COVID issue is a real wrinkle though.

[Squire]

After the vax news about this team, I don't want to add at all. Seems like a losing proposition to me.

[David_Criss]

Rumors: Phillies, Astros eyeing big moves?

[Philsmania]

At this point, check with me after the Braves series. If they are .500 or below, I say forget it and sell.

[zambonir]

It seems crazy/denial to think otherwise. But maybe Dombrowski is thinking just the opposite - that upgrades/depth are a further hedge against COVID-IL losses. If you are a win-now GM with little interest/history in long-term thinking and the purse strings have been loosened, it's certainly possible.

I don't think I'd want them to wave the white flag if they go 1-3 against the Braves anymore than I'd want them to trade Bryson Stott if they go 4-0. They already know what this team is, and what the East is. It's either worth fixing - and fixing well - or it isn't. The part of me that is disappointed/skeptical about the COVID thing would certainly have no problem selling.

[zambonir]

Wow, I thought this proposed trade was a joke or from a Fansided blog when I first saw on Twitter. Of course the premise (that they would rather give up talent than exceed the CBT threshold) is probably/hopefully wrong.

Let’s Make Some Trades: The 2021 Edition

Philadelphia Phillies acquire OF Byron Buxton and P José Berríos from the Minnesota Twins for P Spencer Howard, SS Bryson Stott, P Francisco Morales, 1B Jhailyn Ortiz, and C Rafael Marchan

I’m lopping off the top of the Phillies’ farm system with this trade, but they’re in a bit of a bind. They need to add talent to the roster, but without being willing to go over the luxury tax threshold, their choices are either to wait for prospects to develop or to trade those prospects for established major leaguers. With the Mets ailing, the Braves losing Ronald Acuña Jr., and the Nationals thinner than a punchline in a Chuck Lorre CBS sitcom, right now is the opportunity.

The Phillies have what I think is the worst center field situation of any serious contender, and Zach Eflin just landed on the IL, so these are definite needs, not extra scoops of ice cream. And I’d give up even more if I could count on Buxton being healthy; this trade is made with the assumption that he’s a risk. Philadelphia has been given the rare opportunity to make up for simply reassembling last year’s .500 team this year. Audentes fortuna juvat.

[Squire]

I don't want to buy at all but I would not find that deal unpalatable.

[bkox]

Do the Phillies have the luxury tax space to extend Berrios and/or Buxton?

Is this a better option than say Bryant/Kimbrel from the Cubs for that same package?

[zambonir]

Yeah you would have to assume the premise of the deal is that they keep Buxton (Berrios too but he is also controlled for another season).

I don't think Bryant and Kimbrel, even together, would get four top prospects (and if they did it would be because the Cubs were also paying the salary).

(Edit: I guess Buxton is controlled for another season too. This is why teams sell early instead of late).

[bkeich]

That deal is exactly what we should not do. Pretty much guarantees that this franchise will be a .500 or worse team for the next decade.

A team with one of the worst farm systems decimates it so that they can make the playoffs once (maybe) and then gets destroyed in the playoffs as they are the worst team among the 10 playoff teams. Great plan.

[andyb]

The control of both players for next season makes it enticing. Certainly Buxton's injury history makes him a risk, but he is also potentially a $30 million a year player that could be signed for $20 million a year this offseason because of that history.

The package is also full of risk. Can Howard start? Is Stott ever going to profile as an above average regular? Is Morales a bullpen pitcher? Is Marchan more than a backup ever? Is Ortiz even going to make it?

I think the Twins say no to this. I would do it assuming I can sign Buxton.

[zambonir]

I don't know that I agree. Do nothing and I think we're sitting here in 2023 with only one of those five names (two if we're lucky) having turned into anything, and the Phillies still looking at being a sub.-500 team for three years while Nola leaves and Wheeler, Harper and Realmuto are in decline. And you're still not trading seven or eight of our best prospects (including this year's pick).

I also don't think we're the worst of the playoff teams if they make that deal (and get a reliever). We've already shown we could win a five-game series against most any NL team.

Of course you can still make the case for being sellers now, but at that point I'd also not bother running it back next year. And we know that's not the plan. And a 2022 team coming off an NLDS or NLCS loss that's already added a CF and a starting pitcher looks a lot better than what we have/will be bringing back next year.

[bkeich]

I don’t see how we could even laughably say that the winner of the NLEast is not the worst of the playoff teams. The distance between our division and the top of the other division is pretty large.

Yes, we have won games at times against good teams, but NO ONE would favor us. In a series where they are presumably lining up their best pitchers against ours we are in big trouble. Maybe we get lucky, but the odds are small. There is a reason we are almost 10 games behind these teams. The other NL Playoff teams average slightly more that +100 runs this year, we are at -11. That is not a small difference.

While we would get 2 players, they are both already highly paid and it will get higher next year and then we are competing against every other team for their service. One could almost argue that the are going to get paid at their value. We would be trading away almost every player we have that we expect to be low paid versus value for the next few years. Their is a big difference between a rookie and a 5th year player in value. We need some pre-arbitration players on the team and trading away almost every player that will join the team in the next 2-3 years is just asking for trouble. We already are up against the salary threshold, this would make it hopeless.

[bkox]

But we arent facing the Rockies and Dbacks 36 times like the Dodgers, Padres and Giants.

[bkeich]

Or each other 36 times like they are. Overall our schedule is easier than theirs.

[andyb]

While we would get 2 players, they are both already highly paid and it will get higher next year and then we are competing against every other team for their service.

They are actually not that high. $5.125 for Buxton and $6.1 for Berrios. They way arbitration works they will not get more than $10-$12 million next year most likely. After that they are a free agent of course, but they are both 27 now so would be starting their age 29 season. I don't think they would resign both, but if they just got Buxton they might get a bargain on a relatively young player.

Resigning either player would probably have lower risk than resigning JT or signing Cutch in the first place. All big contracts have risk. The risk is just less the younger they are.

This deal would most likely be predicated on the 5 prospects and it is very possible those 5 will not amount to much. I would be much more concerned if names like Abel or Rojas were involved.

[bkeich]

Well, those numbers kinda prove my point. You are adding about $20M to the team (or more if one is extended early). But not only that, you are taking away multiple players at league minimum that are likiely to be on next years team (Howard, Stott, Marchan). Instead you will have to fill those slots with players like Knapp who are not very good and cost more or with veterans that cost even more and are more likely to be injured.

Trading all of your near ML ready talent is kinda a double whammy.

I agree it is much better than trading your top talent like Abel, but Stott is at least as valuable right now because he is presumably closer to contributing. He to me is a guy you only trade to “get over the top”, not to win a division and enter the playoffs as the weakest team.

[andyb]

You are adding about $20M to the team

For 28 year old players. Not 30-35 year olds. We have $70 million to spend next year. Why not spend it on younger players? Yes it takes away some minimum salaried players. But we just don't know if those players are any good.

This team needs to use its financial resources to compete in ways that protect the future. This deal would do most of that and trade a bunch of what looks to be low ceiling prospects at the moment. I think you are placing way too much value in the 5 specific prospects named. Howard has yet to prove he can start. Marchan has yet to prove he can hit enough to be a backup catcher. Stott probably is not a shortstop. They all have issues. Stott is probably the most valuable on that list. Kingery was probably better thought of as a prospect in AA than Stott at a similar age and we saw how that worked out. You gotta give something to get something, and this kind of deal would actually help the major league roster for a couple of years until the higher ceiling prospects in A ball are closer.

[zambonir]

Yeah, that's where I am too. Stott may only be a 2B and they aren't very hard to find (or better yet, we already have one in 2023 if Kingery can make his way back). Howard may still flame out or end up in the pen. I'm not even sure Marchan beats out Knapp next year, even as rough as Knapp has been.

I'd still want to keep Howard but I think Stott and Marchan could both be gone this deadline regardless. Would rather do that for two controllable pieces than a couple of rentals (and especiall not a relief pitcher).

[andyb]

As I said, I think the Twins turn this down because it doesn't include the high ceiling prospects (i.e. Abel). Remember they have TWO of the top trade items on the market and each is controllable for a 2nd year which makes them more valuable.

They are just not going to trade this for a package without a top prospect or some younger major leaguers (i.e. they might want an Eflin to replace Berrios or something like that). They would probably want Moniak too to give them CF options (though I would include Moniak in this type of deal if we were getting Buxton).