Phillies at the Trade Deadline

[Philsmania]

Perhaps we need to simultaneously buy and sell. If we get a Kimbrel and pay all his freight (which would mean we pay low price to get him) and sign Hamels, perhaps trade VV and/or even Neris to clear some cap space.

[bkox]

I dont know how this is figured... but I like it.

NL Postseason Odds:
Dodgers 99.7%
Giants 98.8%
Brewers 88.8%
Padres 86.3%
Phillies 45.5%
Braves 25.9%
Mets 18.4%
Reds 17.3%
Nats 9.3%
Cubs 4.8%
Cardinals 2.9%
Marlins 2.3%
Diamondbacks <0.1%
Pirates <0.1%
Rockies <0.1% https://t.co/oCOudnqwxP

— Baseball Reference ( @baseball_ref ) July 19, 2021

[gmwannabe]

DD's article is what i'm afraid of. Hang on to your hats.
gm

[LoneStarPhan]

I should be interesting. I don't know what to expect but definitely do not think DD does nothing.

Schedule strength is a positive factor for the Phillies chances but I always fear losing a bunch of games to weak teams. Of course, they have to do well against those teams to have a decent chance to play in postseason.

[California_Dreamin]

If Kimbrel is one of the targets [and I think he is] why wait to see how the team does over the next 10 games, why not try and get him now and possibly win 1-2 of those Yankee, Brave or Nats games that might otherwise be lost? The Cubs have lots of work to do over the next 10 days and are unlikely to want to wait till July 29 to get moving, witness the deal for Pederson already.

Look, this division is there for the taking. Doesn't mean they will win it but its there. Mets just lost their top two players [take out Harper and Wheeler from Phils lineup and see how upbeat we would feel], Braves lost their top player and are looking old to me, and Nats have as many vulnerabilities as the Phillies do. And as I mentioned in discussing the potential signing of Hamels, this Phillie team would not be a guaranteed easy out in the playoffs.

Probably wouldn't see the Dodgers till the finals and I doubt anyone here fears the Giants or Brewers, respect yes, fear no. Padres are very good but are unlikely to leapfrog the Dodgers and Giants, though I remain unconvinced that the Giants [even older than the Braves] are winning without mirrors that are unlikely to continue to answer Giants whenever said mirror is asked "mirror, mirror on the wall, whose the fairest NL team of all?

A rotation headed by Wheeler, Nola and Eflin with a potential closer named Kimbrel is not a staff to take lightly in a short series. I don't know if Kimbrel is even on the radar screen right now but DD is a very smart guy and the fact that he specifically said the bullpen is not necessarily his focus right now indicates to me it is and he doesn't want to overpay by appearing to be desperate. What I do know is that it seems silly to wait and see how the team does over the next 10 games when 8 of them are against teams that they are trying to beat out in the first place.

[gmwannabe]

i would love to see them get there (playoffs) but please don't give up the store. i would love to face he giants and return the favor from 2010. no way the phils should have lost that, but in a short series, who knows.
gm

[nycphils]

To some extent, it might be easier to deal from our system than it would be if we were deeper - basically, Abel is off limits but almost all organizations refuse to trade their top prospect/Top 50 prospects and you would probably keep Stott as well but pretty much anyone else in the organization has major flaws or is completely unproven so it is probably just as easy to trade #3 (Marchan? Other?) as it is #10-15 (Medina? Lindow? Jabari?)

[allentown]

If Kimbrel is one of the targets [and I think he is] why wait to see how the team does over the next 10 games,

If the Phillies have decided that Hamels is showing enough to be worth signing, and if we're correct in assuming that Hamels will only sign with a team having a good chance to make and advance in the playoffs, then it makes sense to make the deals we want to make early and present Hamels with the opportunity to sign with a Phillies team that looks stronger than it does today. The last thing he likely wants is to sign with the Phillies as THE big trade deadline move.

[California_Dreamin]

allentown...I agree completely. Seems Hamels would be more inclined to sign with the Phils post Kimbrel deal that pre. Hamels certainly wouldn't want to sign as the BIG acquisition but as a potential #4 starter, with Kimbrel, Bradley, Suarez and Neris as late inning bullpen guys [not to mention Brogdon and Falter] they would look like a very intriguing team.

[BostonRoss]

I also think the Phillies should not wait to try to make a deal. Some good players might be traded and no longer available if they wait.

[zambonir]

Not waiting to make a deal sounds good in theory, but it's still a delicate balancing act. The Cubs might want three players tomorrow when they'd settle for two players in a week. Or they just want to keep the bidding war going for a week. They decided that was the right time and right offer for Pederson, what would the Phillies have to do to make them feel that way about Kimbrel? And are the Cubs prioritizing money (supposedly they took a beating from all of their ancillary revenue/real estate around Wrigley) or prospects? A deal where the Cubs pick up a lot of salary helps the Phillies CBT-wise, but costs more player-wise.

Seems more likely to me that the Phillies stay away from Kimbrel and get one of the other guys. Which creates the same balancing act: if you are the Pirates do you take the best offer you get this week or wait until Kimbrel is gone so you have the most attractive guy left?

If a team is ready to deal someone the Phillies want, it's not like they won't have a chance to pull the trigger. I wonder how much of the CF chatter is meaningful, or if that's just a combo of gossip and "well, the Phillies could use a CF."

[Dirk41]

What would it take to get Buxton from the Twins? His injury history makes him unlikely to command the actual value that his talent would. He would be perfect, ya know, when he is actually playing.

[bkox]

What would it take to get Buxton from the Twins? His injury history makes him unlikely to command the actual value that his talent would. He would be perfect, ya know, when he is actually playing.

would probably take a lot.. Twins still have another year of control. SO no rush to trade him this year. Hes only ever played 1 full season. He seems to be a much more talented version of Roman Quinn.

[zambonir]

Purely a hunch, but I think the Phillies will be going for it. 1 Top 10 and 2 Top 30 guys won't be with us in two weeks, which is probably not as dramatic as it sounds (Marchan is obviously the most tradeable at the top, and Llovera, a guy who's seemed one step from a DFA all season, is Top 20 MLB).

Probably a reliever and then either/or on another piece (if they get a good SP, they won't get a bat, if they get a bat, they'll make do with the current rotation which still has various #6 options down the stretch.

The problem is our position in the standings pretty much mirrors our position in the trade market, the five teams ahead of us have more $ (or willingness to spend it) and more tradeable depth (and then there's also the AL teams).

[andyb]

ESPN overview article. They have us as interested in most of the top players on the market including Buxton and Berrios (one of 17 teams so maybe not huge interest). Obviously Kimbrel. I admit I am a bit intrigued by Buxton and taking a swing on a franchise player that really wants to sign a $100 million contract with somebody. If that is over 6+ years it might be a good risk. The question is what we would have to give up and I am guessing it would be someone off the major league roster (Bohm?) and a couple of top prospects.

Passan: Teams looking to add, the biggest stars available and one name who could...

[David_Criss]

Any chance they can trade Gregorius? If they could move him and then add a Galvis (Baltimore currently on IL) or Frazier (Pittsburgh) that improves defense and offense. or are the Phillies stuck with him this year and next?

Kennedy (TEX), Rodriquez (Pitt) or Rogers (Minn.) would be immediate upgrades to the pen.

Pineda, Gibson or Gray for the rotation

Bryant if the price isn't super crazy - there my shopping list is done.

[andyb]

We don't move somebody like Gregorius without picking up most of his future salary. Until Didi is playing at a 2 WAR level, he is basically playing below the WAR rate of his contract. Cutch is actually the more interesting case as he has been playing at his contract level lately.

[zambonir]

I doubt the GM and the manager are as down on Didi as we are. That's an off-season move, if at all (given the DH and potential hole at 3B and Kingery being almost definitively out of the mix). He's got an .805 OPS in July (albeit mostly from hitting four HRs) so hopefully he adds more the rest of the year. Upgrading one defender simply isn't as important a need as SP, relief pitcher or an impact bat/CF.

And David's talking about moving Didi while still being buyers. Moving Cutch is a pure seller play. Unless you also get a 3B while doing that.

[bkox]

Phillies appear open to exceeding luxury-tax threshold for first time ever at...

[andyb]

It is the rational choice if one does not want to give away top prospects. The biggest drawback is probably the free agent penalties (2nd and 5th pick compensation as opposed to just the 2nd pick and $1 million international instead of $500K) and we really don't even know if those penalties will still apply anyway in the free agent market as it is not as if the compensation has really done much other than depress the price of one or two players each year. A new CBA could get rid of that compensation and also raise the luxury tax threshold.