Phillies at the Trade Deadline

bkeich 2021-07-01 12:55:24 UTC #1

What should the Phils do at the Trade Deadline? Is it time to break up the band and try and build or is it time to try and make a move to get into the division (which is very winnable)?

Fire Sale
Trade small pieces
Stand Pat
Buy to cover hope
All out Buying to Win

0voters

Votes are public.

Show results

bkeich 2021-07-01 12:57:33 UTC #2

I will start.

FIRE SALE.

We have spent the last few seasons either being minor buyers or standing pat, and it has accomplished nothing except appeased the WIP crowd. It is time to admit that this team is NOT a playoff team and it will not be down the path we are going. SELL to try and acquire young talent and hope that this time we can actually build a team. Realmuto and Harper have frankly screwed up, they bet on a horse that died on the next to last turn.

Trade Wheeler. This is an absolute, he is never going to bring more value, maybe as much as 2 top 50 prospects. We desperately need them. He is a very good pitcher having a near Cy Young type year (if deGrom was human). We have to cash him in to build.

Anyone but Bohm. Bohm has minimal value right now, no reason to trade him, he is what we are hoping to get. Absolutely anyone else available, but Harper and Realmuto are pretty much untradeable. If we could get prospects for Realmuto or Harper I would do it, but I just dont see that happening, we are stuck with those enormous contracts.

If we could somehow actually have a farm system that wasnt laughable there would be hope. As it is now unless we cash in the assets we have it will be a miracle if this team can make the playoffs this decade (and it is only 2021). We have a declining team that wasnt very good and no prospects to back fill with. This is simply the worst situation this franchise has been in during my lifetime, the action to solve it must be fast and decisive before guys like Nola, Segura, Hoskins, Neris become zero value. Doing it next year or the year after will be too late, all of our assets will have spoiled on the vine by then. Has to be now.

bkox 2021-07-01 13:54:43 UTC #3

The problem with the fire sale idea is that, if you look at MLBs top 50 prospects, almost all of them belong to teams that wont be buying. The Padres are the only team with 3 players in the top 50. The Dodgers have 2 but both in the 40s.

Seriously.. lets take a look at the top 100 and see if you see any team in contention, that would be willing to take on salary (even if we pay some of it) and give up prospects worth what we are giving up.

zambonir 2021-07-01 13:59:19 UTC #4

My vote is trade small pieces because I don't think you can actually have a fire sale at the deadline, and while I do think the future of the franchise is extremely shaky, you also can't really make that decision in the heat of July. Barring injury, which is always a risk, Wheeler will have the same value in the off-season (it was just last year they were rumored to be offering him around). And of course in reality, like it or not we are stuck with the rebuilding-on-the-fly model, just impossible for me to imagine Dombrowski doing anything else, and it's still viable at least for 2022 and 2023. Which is not to say there won't be some big trades.

You made the poll "should" not "will" - unfortunately I think the "will" answer is "buy to cover hope." Which may also be a misread of the fan base, seems to me only the most casual fans and oldest-school media types would take issue with it at this point.

flyers19rw 2021-07-01 14:11:53 UTC #5

One thing to remember when considering making moves is that the CBA ends in December. My expectation is that there will be a lockout/strike coming for 2022. Any player transactions have to be made with not having much of a season or one at all in mind.

bkeich 2021-07-01 14:44:54 UTC #6

Yes, that was phrased intentionally. Should is an interesting exercise in "what would you do", "will" is a depressing evaluation of what I would call wildly optimistic failing.

bkeich 2021-07-01 14:47:46 UTC #7

Well, that is depressing. So basically every other bad team at least has prospects. We have the (possibly) unique combination of a bad team and no prospects.

Taudawg 2021-07-01 14:51:25 UTC #8

I will always choose to avoid fire sale, because nothing substantial has changed in the way the Phillies operate - bad drafting, bad International signings, bad player development, etc. I have no reason to expect a hard reset of the current club will result in anything other than another failed rebuild. A systemic change to organization culture and strategy needs to happen before I can see any other outcome.

David_Criss 2021-07-01 15:52:26 UTC #9

Looking at who the Phillies have and what buyers want will make you depressed instantly. Neris and McCutchen are the two who I think will get moved, but don't expect a ton in return. You might be able to move Hoskins and Segura for a little higher premium.

Hoskins leads the team in homers and Segura is the best hitter, so trading them would be waiving the white flag.

bigegypt0417 2021-07-01 16:02:07 UTC #10

I think the white flag has been waved and is in tatters at this point...you have two premium pieces you can think about moving...wheeler and nola...those two will bring back the prospects we need and relative to many other pitchers, they are fairly cheap.

andyb 2021-07-01 16:05:37 UTC #11

Would this push you to want to do more of a full rebuild as next season would get lost in the potential lockout? I am not sure it is much of a factor as really the only key parts are getting a better core of young players and that will take time. I think there will be a higher competitive balance threshold in the new agreement, so that is actually argument to trade only small pieces this year and spend more next for a retool rather than a rebuild.

bkox 2021-07-01 16:05:51 UTC #12

What team do you think has the premium prospects and are buyers? Do you have any teams/prospects in mind. Nothing jumped out of me looking at MLB top 100.. but maybe there is a team that will part with a handful of good but not elite prospects?

flyers19rw 2021-07-01 16:06:32 UTC #13

When he was hired, Dombrowski stated that he wanted a year to become acquainted with the organization and the talent in it before he started to make moves. However right now he'd be hard pressed not to intervene and do some house cleaning.
Anyone but Harper, JT, Wheeler and probably Nola are most likely available. Moving out some guys makes sense; so does keeping others. I know that he's not an AS anymore but McCutchen is a player that I'd like to keep. His play at the plate has been improving and so has his work in the field. Most of all, he is a "pro" player and an example for the rest of the team with the way that he approaches the game.
From what we've seen so far this season, some of these guys don't get it when it comes to playing this game. I don't know if they can't play it or are just going through the motions but the performance isn't up to big league standards. That has to change. There's only so much a manager can do. Some guys just don't belong here.

zambonir 2021-07-01 16:12:32 UTC #14

Well, the CBA expires on December 1, so they will either agree to an extension while talks begin, or the stoppage will begin and nobody will making off-season trades until it's over.

That might be a good reason to be more aggresssive at the deadline but i think it also makes it harder to deal anyone, really. Teams won't want to take on 2023-2024 commitments until they know what kind of hit they are taking in 2022, and what the CBA is. Even trying to move Didi or Segura's 2022 salary is complicated. They'll also be a lot more cautious about parting with prospects, which they already are anyway.

Even Hoskins is tricky - if there's a DH that makes him easier to move but also possibly worth keeping (if not actually necessary). Same goes for the middle IFs. And what if the players actually win the labor dispute and get earlier arbitration or free agency? That will change all the terms of "controllability" teams currently have, unless it is delayed or grandfathered or both.

Which is not to say I think the players win.

flyers19rw 2021-07-01 16:12:39 UTC #15

The Union is going to want to shorten the time to FA and cut compensation for clubs losing players. This would make me want to obtain players that are controllable for the few seasons that you can rather than older players that are close to potential FA. Certainly giving up a lot to obtain a player who is going to be a rest of the season rental would not be a smart move unless it was giving up a Phillies in a similar position such as VV.

bkox 2021-07-01 16:16:28 UTC #16

The other issue is obtaining prospects this year.. How prevalent was sticky stuff in the minors? Are there pitching prospects that are going to start falling off a cliff? Are there hitting prospects that lost luster that might be returning.

I would not want to be a talent evaluator in a year that has so many moving targets (minor league testing of rule changes, changes in the ball, sticky stuff) and after a year that saw everyone lose a year of development time.

California_Dreamin 2021-07-01 16:16:38 UTC #17

I would try and get Simmons from Minnesota [he is VERY available], he is playing brilliantly defensively at SS and would greatly upgrade the defensive. Move Gregorius to 3rd base, move Bohm to 1b and try and move Hoskins. While I do agree that the bullpen is a disaster, the starting pitching is a potential strength but no hurler, regardless of their talent, can be effective with a bad defense.

My guess is that with an improved defensive infield the pitching staff as a whole would be stronger, perhaps even the bullpen. There are no more greater frustrations for a starting pitcher than A] a bullpen that blows leads and B] a defense that doesn't make the plays they should make.

Lucky_Beagle 2021-07-01 16:41:14 UTC #18

My take on the topic...I would not trade the top 3 starting pitchers. This part of the rotation has the chance to be as good as most now or next season. Who knows maybe even Moore gets it together and/or Howard figures something out by next season. How often have we seen it take a couple of years before a starter puts together the beginning of a good run of seasons. Maybe Falter becomes a starter or maybe they can find a comeback pitcher that actually works next season.

Catcher- Realmuto isn't going anywhere

Infield- I do not like what Bohm has been doing, but I do not trade him. Either he improves his defense going into next season or he becomes a major issue on how to get him into the lineup. Hoskins I would not mind seeing him traded if the return is worth it otherwise I would want to be sure the DH is coming to the NL so he can at least spend many games there. I could see him being a half time DH half time 1B to allow others to take defensive days off and stay in the lineup (Harper, Realmuto).
The middle infield I would want a defensive improvement. Therefore I am all aboard moving Segura and/or Didi if possible.

Outfield- Bye Bye Cutch, make me a reasonable offer for Herrera, Harper is not going anywhere
For next season a defensive improvement needs to be made without a big sacrifice on offense for LF.

Bench- Williams, Maton, Kingery, Knapp, Marchon, Miller,--make an offer although Miller is the only one I would really be looking to trade this July unless it was possible to trade Knapp.

Bullpen--time for Neris to go if he can bring back a reasonable player. Same may be true for Bradley. The rest probably deserve another chance or won't be back and aren't worth trading.

Manager-I could go either way. I am not a firm believer the manager makes a great deal of difference. I am sure there are games won and games lost due to the decisions they make which might even out over the course of a season.
Pitching coach- have we gotten any better this season?

jimbomill 2021-07-01 16:51:52 UTC #19

Where's the option for Yard Sale? You know, where you put out all the junk you really don't want in hopes of somebody giving you anything for it just to get it off your hands?

bkox 2021-07-01 17:00:05 UTC #20

The Twins fans I follow on twitter disagree saying Simmons has not been what they expected defensively..,. and a look at BBref shows hes not the defensive whiz he once was. Hes better than anything we have so I guess it depends on what we got to give up..