Phillies at the Trade Deadline

[zambonir]

The most interesting scenarios would certainly be where there are players coming off the roster as well as on it. And I'd include Haseley and Moniak and (less likely) Kingery as potential trade chips (not big ones, but certainly the first two guys are still more valuable than A ball lottery tickets).

But it's easier said than done, not only in terms of match-ups but also improving the team. You could trade Hector or VV while also trying to acquire a closer and a 4th starter, but it would still be better to keep them and do that (thus making Hector lower-leverage and Vince our #5).

The Simmons/trade Hoskins/Bohm to 1B idea is nice in theory, but probably a net loss in terms of WAR this season (adding defense but subtracting offense). And probably still better to deal Hoskins in the off-season (while hoping he has another good stretch in him this season).

This is assuming they still try to win this year. Otherwise it's pretty easy - trade Cutch, trade Hector, trade Miller. Not sure about Herrera and don't think Didi and Segura can be moved easily (either return will be too low or Phillies will be putting more money than they are willing to put in).

[flyers19rw]

When one looks at the state of the roster, its hard to put much blame on Girardi for the team's play. As a group, they don't do much well as far as using skills to play the game. All things look as if a shake up of the IF would be beneficial. The butchering of play with the IF is a major contributor to the team's weak performance. CD's idea of nabbing Simmons to play SS and moving Didi to 3B with Bohm going to 1B has some merit. It would be for a short while since their contracts have limited length. 3B long term needs to be addressed. Miguel Andujar is a name that could be out there as well. Urshela has 3B tied up for NYY. Andujar was a decent 3B before he was hurt. He probably can handle that position again. With NYY in a similar place as the Phillies right now some sort of deal between the two organizations makes sense.
Actually, I'm in favor of moving Segura. He'll never have more value. Maton looks like he could handle 2B.
Hoskins needs to leave; can't field his position a little bit and his bat is just too streaky.
I'm for moving out any of the BP members except for Brogdan. He's young and seems to have some effectiveness. The others should be on the block. With the starters, if any of them are moved out, who takes their place? We've seen what's behind Wheeler, Nola and Eflin and it isn't a pretty sight.
In the OF, Bryce isn't going any where. Its doubtful that any club would take on Herrera. Cutch has been a responsible veteran presence and with the way the some of the players have performed, accountability is a necessity. I still believe that Haseley can play this game when he gets things together. He has shown flashes of ability in the past for short terms before getting hurt or relegated to PT play. Moniak is another thing. He's had ample opportunity and it hasn't taken with him. He needs a new address.

[andyb]

I just don't see fixing the SS defense as the thing to do now, especially with Didi coming back (and hopefully his defense is a bit better after the break).

If we do a "rebuild in place" for next year I think I would definitely address the infield defense and some of the choices might depend on how Bohm does the rest of the season and whether a DH will be in place next year.

I think they largely stand pat until the deadline week and if things have not improved by then they sell small pieces like Cutch. It is probably important to get the tradeable veterans playing well in the next month. The only hope of competing also requires them to play well (in other words Didi playing well is probably more important in the short term than Nick Maton).

[zambonir]

This article last week actually did a good job laying out all the options.

A fire sale isn’t coming, but selling some pieces may make sense for Phillies –...

Girardi is not to blame, but he failed to meet the standard set by Middleton when he was hired (and Kapler was fired). I think the pandemic can't be discounted either, but if the manager's main contribution is chemistry and attention to detail, there's very few signs of either here.

If they run it back next year I think they will either trade Segura or move him to 3B. Didi to 2B. Sign a SS. Bohm to 1B. But will still need a LF and possibly a CF. Still just too many holes unless Kingery and Haseley can be more than replacement level.

[DurhamBull]

IMO "burn it down and start over" sounds satisfying on a visceral level, but is rarely the best choice.

[Taudawg]

This article last week actually did a good job laying out all the options.

Agreed. I think this is the strategy. A few more weeks to clear up the picture.

[zambonir]

Given where the team is now that is probably true, but fence-sitting was really costly for them from 2012 to mid-2015. Then as now, they lack the financial will to truly double down (Vic and Pence were traded as much for luxury tax reasons as to get talent back), or the fortitude to fully tank (except the upper farm system may be even worse now than it was in 2012).

Either way, the team is probably going to have to tear it down in 2024 and won't be good for 2-3 years. But the value of trying to win for the next two years probably does exceed the value of what a full tank job gets you.

[mdougherty12]

3B long term needs to be addressed. Miguel Andujar is a name that could be out there as well. Urshela has 3B tied up for NYY. Andujar was a decent 3B before he was hurt. He probably can handle that position again.

Miguel Andujar was generally regarded as a butcher at 3B, even before his shoulder injury. I don’t see him as any kind of answer at 3B.

Doubles, defense, and demotion: On Miguel Andújar’s fall off the Yankees’ roster

[BostonRoss]

Yikes, this is not a secret ballot!

[zambonir]

We won't tell Dombrowski

[allentown]

Sorry, I can't vote in this poll. There is just way to big a gap between 'fire sale' and 'trade small pieces'. I fall into that vast gap. I'd be willing to trade a significant piece, like Hoskins. If I could get a plus return, I'd move a starting pitcher, if good value comes back, pitchers being so prone to injury and the Phillies dead in the water this year with little hope of improvement next year, even without a strike. If trades start happening, other teams are pushed to trade, because their competitors have strengthened themselves. Then the price paid may increase. Adding pieces is a non-starter so that whole side of the poll seems impossible to me, as does standing pat. Certainly trade some relievers, trade Cutch, trade Segura, I'd trade Didi, but doubt he's healthy enough to trade. Trade Herrera if you can get value.

[xogfog]

I said fire sale, but I agreed more with you, but I unload anyone not named Wheeler, Realmuto or Harper. I would even consider Wheeler if it brought back a bounty of young talent.

[Lucky_Beagle]

I said fire sale, but I agreed more with you, but I unload anyone not named Wheeler, Realmuto or Harper. I would even consider Wheeler if it brought back a bounty of young talent.

This is the main problem with the current team IMO there are not any young player on most people no trade list. (Bohm has been mentioned a couple of times, but that's it) without those type of players producing at the major league level it is hard to compete for titles.

[xogfog]

Well that's the problem when you finally get the first player in the draft and it's an awful draft class and then not picking until the second round (and not hitting on those guys either or even finding any late round gems) for years.

[Squire]

If I could get a Blake Snell type return (4 legit pieces) for Zach Wheeler, I'd consider it but I'm not sure I see a trade partner out there that has the powder and would spend it.

[bigegypt0417]

You would have to think the Dodgers will soon be in the market for a front line starter.

[zambonir]

The Snell trade was for a 28 year-old player with three seasons of control making just $10 million AAV. Wheeler is 31 with three seasons of control making $23.6 million. The best return on a deal like that doesnt happen in July anyway. Things have changed even since the Hamels trade, and with that one we still had to throw in money and take second-choice players in a few instances.

Nola would be more your Snell equivalent right now.

"Fire sale" is semantics. I think if they are willing to trade anyone who is under contract/controlled past this year, that is a fire sale, in deadline terms. Segura, Hoskins, Eflin, maybe even selling high on a young (but inconsistent) reliever. It doesn't mean stripping the entire roster or trading Harper/Realmuto.

But, going back to the should/will, I think they are still buyers at the moment.

[bkeich]

But, going back to the should/will, I think they are still buyers at the moment.

... and Dombrowski should be fired immediately if he trades a young asset to improve the current team in the short term.

[bigegypt0417]

I'm going to strongly disagree if the pieces you are adding are high value relievers because this team would be leading the division if they had a legit closer and quality arms in the bullpen.

[bkeich]

The Snell trade was for a 28 year-old player with three seasons of control making just $10 million AAV. Wheeler is 31 with three seasons of control making $23.6 million. The best return on a deal like that doesnt happen in July anyway. Things have changed even since the Hamels trade, and with that one we still had to throw in money and take second-choice players in a few instances.

Nola would be more your Snell equivalent right now.

But the problem I see with not moving Wheeler is that his value is never going to be higher than it is today. He is arguably the 2nd best pitcher in the league, or certainly in the top 5. We have no use for him, he isnt helping us make the playoffs and I dont see any hope that we will in the next 2 years as we are stuck in salary cap %$&*. We have no help coming from the minors in the short term and we are up against a spending limit. We will lose a little salary this offseason, but not enough to make the moves needed to acquire the talent to make this any more than a .500 team.

If you can trade Wheeler for a big return (as bkox points out that might be hard as the teams interested dont have that much), but maybe it has to be a 3 or more team deal.

Certainly Wheeler isnt a salary dump, but maybe if we can get a couple young players for him and then use his salary to get a couple more young players in a salary dump this offseason we can start to see some type of future. Right now we have built a below average team that is starting to get older and just holding on to the assets is exactly what we did in 2012 when we should have been trying to build up our minor leagues.