Phillies at the Trade Deadline

[zambonir]

But, going back to the should/will, I think they are still buyers at the moment.

... and Dombrowski should be fired immediately if he trades a young asset to improve the current team in the short term.

I mean, sure, fire Dombrowski and then call up Josh Byrnes, who presumably told Middleton the team had to rebuild, and apologize and give him the job. But since that isn't going to happen do you really think Middleton wants the team to be sellers for the first time since 2017?

It's Dombrowski's job to tell his boss they don't have a real shot, but I'm still not sure that's true. They just went 12-12 with a positive run differential in June, and with a bunch of injuries as well as the blown saves. We'll see whether another three weeks of data provides.

The bigger question is, how hard do you really try to win the NL East just to lose to San Diego or SF in four? If they can actually win this home series against the Padres that would get my attention. If not they'll be 4-8 or worse against the NL West.

[zambonir]

We have no use for him, he isnt helping us make the playoffs and I dont see any hope that we will in the next 2 years as we are stuck in salary cap %$&*. We have no help coming from the minors in the short term and we are up against a spending limit. We will lose a little salary this offseason, but not enough to make the moves needed to acquire the talent to make this any more than a .500 team.

We'll actually have a ton of cap space, especially if Herrera isn't retained and they trade one of the middle IFs. I agree it's not quite enough combined with the lack of young reinforcements (especially if Haseley and Kingery are still bench players at best). And it would be nice to just be the Rays or A's and cut loose a Snell and a Morton and then replace them with a McHugh or (ahem) an Irvin and not miss a beat. We just have to stop signing the most expensive possible FAs.

But I still think it is possible to retool. It will require some aggressive trading of major league players for major league players. Which is another reason you can't do this at the deadline. I don't rule out trading Wheeler, I just think he's worth more in the off-season and a 29-team market than now, and can bring back a different kind of package.

[flyers19rw]

The NLEast is wide open. The Mets are coming back to reality. If DeGrom is hurt, and it sure looks like he is, they're going to sink. The Nats are doing it with smoke and mirrors as well. The lack of arms will do them in. The Phillies are one game behind the Braves who also are having pitching issues with Soroka out for the season. If Dombrowski can make some moves to get the BP in order and somehow fix the IF defense, there's no reason why the Phillies can't win the division. The last half of the season is the hardest part. Baseball season is a war of attrition not a sprint.

[bigegypt0417]

100% agree.

This team is quality bullpen arms and minor bench tweaks away from competing.

[zambonir]

I agree as well, I'm just not sure the Phillies have the assets - both players and willingness to spend $ - to get serious about making a run, and it's a 9% chance at making the playoffs for a reason.

They are not going to acquire another starting position player, and probably can't afford a rotation upgrade either. If they pay the freight on a top reliever, instead of a middling piece like last year (even though Phelps looked good on paper) I'd be surprised.

Perhaps Dombrowski will be bold and clever and do something unexpected involving major leaguers, that would certainly make it interesting. If I were him I would have a plan to exceed the CBT both this year and next year and then get under it in 2023, but whether because of politics or economics it seems doubtful he'd get that approved. Instead they'll end up trading away something they shouldn't.

I also wouldn't count out the Mets. They have a ton of struggling hitters, with no better or worse a chance of waking up than our guys have. And they will also make moves at the deadline.

[flyers19rw]

Look for Dombrowski to do something innovative. He has assets that he can move in Hoskins, VV (soon to be a FA), Knapp and others.

[zambonir]

I hope so, but I don't see him moving Hoskins - another piece who will be worth more in the off-season - and probably not Vince either, unless he's in full sell mode. Even if they acquire another starting pitcher they'll need Vince as a #5 unless Moore really re-establishes himself.

Knapp is also not worth much; more likely Marchan gets dealt (rather than Stott or Abel or Morales) if they actually made a big deal.

Trading Hoskins could be interesting if you are also getting a SS or 3B, right now. But a team like Minnesota or Baltimore isn't going to take Hoskins, so you'd be talking two different trades.

[BostonRoss]

The Red Sox wouldn't mind a 1B upgrade. But I'm not sure they would give up much for Hoskins, given his defensive liability and that they want to DH J.D. Martinez most of the time.

Ironically, there have been rumors they want...Carlos Santana.

[fish]

I hope so, but I don't see him moving Hoskins - another piece who will be worth more in the off-season

He's been a sub .250 hitter who's a DH. He's a great buy low for any team with a clue of how to develop hitters. But as long as he's a sub .250 hitter as either a dh or bad first basemen on the Phils I have a hard time believing he has any trade value for a major league caliber player.

[bkox]

Rhys Hoskins is in the 5th in the MLB in HRs by a 1st baseman, Also 5th in doubles and AB/HR and ISO. 4th in XBH 10th in slugging, He has an .891 OPS vs Left handed pitching. Hes second worst in BaBIP. 8th in Hard hit percentage and 6th in barrells per plate appearance.

He has value

[andyb]

His value is probably pretty depressed though. I agree that Hoskins would be someone to move as I can't imagine we'll think of resigning him when he is a free agent because he might be limited to DH at that point and would be overpriced (and guys like Harper and Realmuto might need to DH a good deal in a few years).

Defense likely limits Hoskins overall value, but agree with some better luck he could easily be putting up an 850+ OPS and be seen as a steady offensive contributor (year to year at least around his streaks).

[flyers19rw]

Just because the Phillies would move players out does not mean that these guys are junk. Moving them is a way to balance out the flaws with this roster. As others have posted, Hoskins does have value. VV is a FA after this season. He’s probably a guy that the Phillies would not want to QO. That being the case, to trade him now for a potential plug in a hole in the roster makes sense. As for Knapp, catchers break down as a season gets older. He’s a better fill in than most of the older types that are bouncing around. There are other players that could be moved if the return solved an issue with the present roster.

[zambonir]

I am not saying Hoskins doesn't have value. He just has more value on a 29-team market than he does on a limited market of contending clubs. I'm not trading him for some team's 21st and 29th prospect, regardless of what the goal for the rest of this season is. Though that might actually a be an incredible deal for him!

Vince, of course you trade him if you're giving up on the season. But if you're not, he's not getting you anything that helps this year, and not much more in terms of prospects than the Phillies gave up for Smyly a few years ago (I have no idea what that actually was).

And Knapp is awful. He's closer to not being in the majors next year than he is to having trade value. You could sign a 39 year-old who hasn't played a game this year and get what he's provided. Or ask the Rays for the guy they have in the minors.

[David_Criss]

And Knapp is awful. He's closer to not being in the majors next year than he is to having trade value.

I respectfully disagree. Knapp has a reputation around the league(s) for being a smart catcher and really helping pitchers out, even when not in the lineup because of things he sees. Some have said he is definitely a future coach/manager candidate.

[zambonir]

I could be wrong. But he's never been a great defensive catcher or pitch framer. He has done well catching Eflin. And our managers loved having him as a switch-hitter and occasional fielder/double-switch guy. But I'm not sure he'd even be on the team this year if he hadn't had such a hot season with the bat last year. If it doesn't come back, I don't think the rest of his game is anything special, and he's not worth his 2022 arbitration salary. That's a bet I'd make.

Some even thought the Phillies would pick Mathis over him this year.

[allentown]

This team is quality bullpen arms and minor bench tweaks away from competing

You said quality bullpen arms -- plural. And you said competing, not making the playoffs. I think that's true, but it's also a fairly big ask that comes up just short. Certainly 2008 doesn't happen without Lidge, but we've acquired a lot of relievers since then, I'll count giving a new contract to Lidge in that, and I woudn't say any of them made a really significant positive input -- certainly not a turn the season around impact.

[bigegypt0417]

That seems like some quality hair splitting...but ok...quality bullpen arms and we're a playoff team. If your point is they haven't done well getting arms in 13 years and they shouldn't continue to try, I'm not sure why you would continue to follow them as a fan.

We have a new FO and this team is close enough that you should try and not throw in the towel.

[zambonir]

We've had a lot of good late-inning relievers since Lidge - almost an uninterrupted line from Madson to Papelbon to Giles, really. Neris is the least of them (not even counting Jeanmar Gomez) while Seranthony never got to develop. But none of those teams were good enough to where it mattered. Neshek was also a very good set-up man for a couple of years (only some of it with the Phillies).

What's happening this year and last (and in 2019 for that matter) is something else entirely. Just near-total bullpen wipeouts, to one degree or another.

This whole conversation/poll is largely moot for another two weeks. If Dombrowski could jump the market and make an early move that would be fine by me, he could always undo it if the team remains this far behind in a month. But when you make the early move and don't want to give up too much you wind up with Brandon Workman, not someone who is an actual upgrade.

It would be easy to look at tonight and say this team, especially with all 8 intended starters, can play with anyone in the league and needs bullpen help. If that remains the case over the next two weeks I have no doubt they will buy, I'm skeptical they'll buy big enough for it to really matter. Dombrowski got Middleton to loosen to purse strings but do either of them thing this team is worth exceeding the CBT for? Worth trading a Top 10 prospect when our 5-10 prospects aren't even as valuable as most teams' #15?

[fish]

We have a new FO and this team is close enough that you should try and not throw in the towel.

To what purpose? To hope to Improve to become a slightly above .500 team and trip face first into the playoffs only to get embarrassed in the playoffs, followed by another season of dreadful will they/won’t they be .500?

Your optimism is a wonderful thing, I’d just like to start a process of redoing this in the hope that someone figures out how it is supposed to be done. I’ve lived through too much awful baseball from this team that I just can’t watch their bad baseball without the hope that they are developing and getting better instead of getting older and worse…again.

[schillingfan]

I don’t want to see Neris or Alvarado in the 9th if they can’t throw strikes.