Phillies at the Trade Deadline

[bigegypt0417]

If we had a good closer and quality arms in the bullpen, are you saying we're barely a 500 team?

It's not optimism...it's factual. Our lineup and starting pitching has put us in positions to win more games and the bullpen has failed.

[fish]

If we had a good closer and quality arms in the bullpen, are you saying we're barely a 500 team?

I think you are overlooking an incredibly glaring problem- based on defensive runs saved, they are the worst team in the national league, the second worst team in baseball, and rank last at the positions of shortstop, third base, catcher, and second worst at first base and left field. There are a lot of things contributing to what makes them a bad bullpen, and bad defense isn’t something you can wipe away. There is a reason some teams seem to be able to make anyone a good reliever, and part of that is the team behind them.

[andyb]

4-out innings are a problem for any bullpen.

[bigegypt0417]

lot

So your solution is?

Break it up or?

[nycphils]

value

I think Hoskins will get you something - I’d be targeting a retooling, rather than burning it down.

Something like this - pay salary to increase prospect quality:

Hoskins to The Brewers - Vogelbach performing at normal poor level instead of last years level, and is a LHB anyway and injured. I agree Hoskins is not returning a ton, but he’s 28, not likely to be a star, but is an average MLB 1B at the plate. Maybe he nets us a couple of prospects in the 15 -30 range out of their Top 30. Bohm moves to 1B for now to see if he can relax and hit when his defense isn’t hurting the team.

McCutcheon to the Indians - in need of an OF. This is an easy on - should return something so, similar to Hoskins (by way of example, when he was traded to the Yankees a few years ago, he got the Pirates 2 prospects in the 20s from the Yankees list, but it was at the end of August instead of July, so would imagine a similar return even though it is three years later). Plenty of guys to give a shot for the rest of the year in LF - Miller, Moniak, Vierling

Jean Segura to the White Sox - Nick Madrigal is out for the year. Need a 2nd baseman, Segura would be a utility guy next year which makes sense especially if the Phil’s send $6-10m with him to offset his remaining $21m in salary.

Andrew Knapp to the Cubs - 3 backups to the 60 day DL already, using a 27 year old career backup. Knapp switch hits and is passable as a backup, much better option for the Cubs if Contreras goes down. Give me a hard throwing reliever project and Knapp is yours, bring up Marchan as the backup.

Deal Archie Bradley, Kintzler and Neris to the highest bidder. Resign Vinny for two years at 5th starter money or, if he won’t, deal him off as well.

That leaves next year needing a 3B, LF, 2B unless Maton can cut it playing every day and a handful of relievers (as with most teams), with about $50-55m to do it with, assuming they match this years payroll level in 2022.

[zambonir]

A lot of the blown saves have also been on the defense - that extra baserunner or unearned run.

It is certainly true that, having just gone 12-12 with two starters missing and near-nightly bullpen trashfires, this team could still play winning baseball and win the division if the full line-up helps and the pen eventually stabilizes. But they weren't especially good without those two starters missing and a less destructive bullpen either.

To me the problem is the moves they are probably willing to make - small ones that don't cost too much from our limited pool of trade assets - aren't likely to make a difference. Probably won't win them the division, let alone a series (even if last night would have been an excellent Game 1). And who knows if trading for a reliever will work out (I'm not saying that because of Workman and Phelps; I remember in 2019 the relievers changing teams around the league wound up being mixed bags too).

I think the upside and the downside are the same really: this team isn't going anywhere unless the offense starts producing more (thus putting less strain on the pen) and Nola can be almost as much of a sure thing as Wheeler (consistently). Otherwise Didi, Hoskins and Bohm are costing the team on both sides of the ball, and CF is back to being a black hole offensively too.

So, do you put faith in that happening and make your tweaks (bullpen, bench)? And if you don't have faith in that happening do you try to make a bigger move or wave the white flag? I still don't see them doing the full rebuild where Wheeler, Nola or JT are available, but if they do it still isn't gonna be in July.

If they only play .450 ball for the next two weeks, then you start to talk about the sell-off/playing for the best draft pick. I guess if you really get serious about the latter you try to dump some talent just to dump it, though what if it backfires (i.e. moving Hoskins actually makes the team better)?

[Patchmk88]

Realmuto has not been good defensively this year which is kind of a bummer.

[mdougherty12]

The 1 knee down catching stance is apparently better for pitch framing, but might be worse for blocking pitches and throwing out base stealers.

[fish]

So your solution is?

Break it up or?

I don’t see a sub .500 team as something to lament “breaking up”, but given that now they have the wrong manager and president for a rebuild the least they should do is something to really shake up the roster- nobody is untouchable.. I just hope they manage to do better than they did from just dumping Bobby Abreu.

[bigegypt0417]

That's not really a plan...but cool.

[allentown]

We have a new FO and this team is close enough that you should try and not throw in the towel.

But, this team isn't close enough. 38-41 isn't good.

[allentown]

We've had a lot of good late-inning relievers since Lidge - almost an uninterrupted line from Madson to Papelbon to Giles, r

Madson and Giles were home grown. I was talking about guys we got in trade or FA. Papelbon was a good FA signing, so he counts,

[bkox]

But, this team isn't close enough. 38-41 isn't good.

We are as close to 1st place as the Rays are in the AL east.. closer than the Cubs in the NL central. Closer than the Indians in the AL Central and one game further than the Padres in the NL West.

The Nats just lost Schwarber. The Mets have proven they havent been able to put the division away.. Look how close we came to sweeping them. The Braves havent taken command

We are 1.5 games out of 2nd place. By saying we arent good enough you are saying the entire NL East should just concede to the Mets.

[mdougherty12]

value

I think Hoskins will get you something - I’d be targeting a retooling, rather than burning it down.

Something like this - pay salary to increase prospect quality:

Hoskins to The Brewers - Vogelbach performing at normal poor level instead of last years level, and is a LHB anyway and injured. I agree Hoskins is not returning a ton, but he’s 28, not likely to be a star, but is an average MLB 1B at the plate. Maybe he nets us a couple of prospects in the 15 -30 range out of their Top 30. Bohm moves to 1B for now to see if he can relax and hit when his defense isn’t hurting the team.

I think that Hoskins' trade value is hurt by the large number of 1B/DH types likely to be available this month (in addition to his mediocre performance in 2021):

Trey Mancini - Baltimore
Colin Moran - Pittsburgh (currently on IL)
Jesus Aguilar - Miami
C.J. Cron - Colorado
Carlos Santana - Kansas City
Jonathan Schoop - Detroit (more of a middle IF, but mostly playing 1B this season)

The Brewers are one of the few teams with a worse farm system than the Phils, so a couple of guys towards the end of their top 30 isn't going to be a big injection of talent, but that is probably a realistic return for Hoskins.

There is a lot of talk about moving Bohm to 1B, but it seems to me that Bohm could easily be just as bad defensively there as Hoskins.

[zambonir]

And yet, only a 9% chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% chance of making the World Series. And an expected W-L that tells a very different story about the division. I know this is no longer a pocket-protector front office, but you can't ignore these things when deciding to trade away prospects or spend money.

I don't think the entire NL East should concede to the Mets, I'm just not sure the Phillies are the team with the best chance of catching them. Or even the second-best chance.

But this debate will take care of itself soon enough. We might get a nice result this weekend against a good team - the Phillies have played well at home overall all year. But we could also still lose the series. After that, it's nine road games sandwiched around 4 at home against the Marlins. If they can run off eight or nine wins you gotta ride that wave and talk about some moves. But eight or nine losses are more likely. They'll probably be around 45-50 with 10 to play before the last day of the deadline.

I think if I were Dombrowski I'd make a bold move for a good reliever right now, to try and get the team back above water. And if it doesn't work and the team is out of it you can always trade him again.

[allentown]

I don't think the entire NL East should concede to the Mets, I'm just not sure the Phillies are the team with the best chance of catching them. Or even the second-best chance.

And I'm not at all sure that even catching the Mets and sneaking into the playoffs is the best thing for the Phillies if we give up some of the very little young talent that we have to add relievers. This is the trade deadline poll and I said above that I saw us as sellers. Despiite an extra-innings win, I still see us as a team that should be sellers. I think we have a strong 3 front of the rotation, and that can be a big deal in the playoffs, but I just don't see this year's Phillies as a playoff quality team. Renting one or two relief pitchers just doesn't strike me as what is needed for the Phillies to become a good team, especially going forward.

[BostonRoss]

Since the probability of making the playoffs and to the World Series have been mentioned, I wonder what probabilities people feel are needed to continue to play to compete this year. Currently, the Phillies have a 12% probability of making the playoffs and a 2% probability of making it to the World Series.

[bkox]

Since the probability of making the playoffs and to the World Series have been mentioned, I wonder what probabilities people feel are needed to continue to play to compete this year. Currently, the Phillies have a 12% probability of making the playoffs and a 2% probability of making it to the World Series.

Is there anyway to find out this info from prior seasons? Like see how much this actually matters. In 2019, The Washington Nationals were 40-40 after 80 games (we are currently 39-41) but 7 games back in the NL East in 3rd place. There were 6 teams ahead of them in the wild card as well. Thy had a horrible pen. (Trevor Rosenthal has a 22.50 ERA at the time of his release after game 79) and in fact only had 2 relievers with ERAs under 4 the entire sesaon

They won the 2019 World Series.. what was their probability at the 80 game mark

[Lucky_Beagle]

Granted the SD series was at home, however with a starting rotation of Wheeler, Nola (who can throw a gem or clunker lately, and Efflin) I would take my chances in a playoff series against any team. I wouldn't necessarily expect to win it, but I would know there is the possibility of it if things went the way way of the Phillies. Therefore I still consider trading for a relief pitcher if the price isn't high in terms of minor leaguer player. I consider trading away to acquire possible future players, but only if they see that player as a future good option to help the team. I know this may sound like treading water at the present. 3 weeks from now things may have changed?

[zambonir]

Probabilities are not predictions, but crudely speaking, if we have a 12% chance of making the playoffs, they could play out this season 100 times, and would make the playoffs 12 times. The Nats' 2019 season happened to be one of those seasons where a low-probability event occurred. So was the Phillies 2007 season. That we remember the times when it happens doesn't make it more probable (just the opposite, in fact, we remember because it is rare).

So the question remains, is that sort of opportunity worth pursuing, and what sort of deals would actually move the needle, and at what cost? I don't think the answer is too complicated though - if they do well over the next 2-3 weeks that number will get over 20 and you can at least justify not packing it in. If they play on the road as they have all year it will return to single-digits.

The Nats were also coming to the end of a run in which they made the playoffs four times and finished 2nd in the division four times. They were obviously in go for it mode. We are too, except without having actually accomplished anything.

As a day-to-day fan (and someone who took the over) I don't really want them to throw in the towel, but it will also be very unfortunate if they trade away a few little minor league pieces, still finish five games out, and miss the chance to get token minor league depth/lottery tickets for their pending free agents on top of that.