Phillies at the Trade Deadline

bkox 2021-07-04 18:48:49 UTC #81

For anyone who was thinking the Pads might be a fit for a trade:

Top Padres prospect CJ Abrams has suffered a fractured left tibia and a sprained left MCL. He will miss the remainder of the 2021 season.
— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) July 4, 2021

zambonir 2021-07-04 20:02:01 UTC #82

Nobody trades their top prospects anymore anyway (nor would an injury like this stop them from doing so). I'm sure the Padres will still be big buyers regardless.

bkox 2021-07-04 20:10:55 UTC #83

earlier in this thread (or maybe it was the season thread) someone was wanting multiple top 50 prospects for Wheeler and I pointed out only the Pads would have top 50 prospects to spare of teams that might be buying. Its the only reason I posted it

zambonir 2021-07-04 22:07:20 UTC #84

So, we're at the halfway point. 39-42, .481 team. 4th place. Run differential of minus-31 (boosted yet again by a runaway score today) for an XW-L of 37-44 (worst in the division). 15-26 road record also worst in the division, and one of the five worst road records in the NL, setting up a seven-game road trip at Chicago and Boston that could go as badly as the West Coast swing.

They'll have to go 42-39 just to finish .500, 47-34 to get to 86 wins. 50-31 to get to 89. It took 90 to win the NL East in 2018, and 97 in 2019.

Not hard to see why those playoff odds are so low. We need a .481 team to play at a .580-.620 clip the rest of the way. Not only does this team not seem up to it, but 1 or 2 little trade deadline upgrades probably doesn't do it, especialy with the other teams upgrading as well.

mdougherty12 2021-07-05 02:22:47 UTC #85

15-26 sounds pretty bad, then you see that Arizona (10-36) doesn’t even have the worst road record in its division, despite losing 24 in a row on the road. Colorado is 6-31 on the road.

bkox 2021-07-05 02:45:17 UTC #86

and both of those teams have 14 more road games against the Pads, Dodgers and Giants.

bkox 2021-07-05 02:59:13 UTC #87

21 of the Phillies games after the All-star break are against the D-Backs, Rockies, Orioles, and Pirates

Braves have 14 against those teams. Nats have 12. Mets only have 7. Mets seem to have the hardest schedule

zambonir 2021-07-05 03:55:09 UTC #88

We're not exactly supposed to be measuring the Phillies by Colorado or Arizona though, are we? All the teams with better records than us have better road records than us.

Strength of schedule is certainly something else to consider, but those games against weaker teams don't start until July 30. They have yet to have a winning record in any month of the season (and this is the first time they've been under .500 at the midpoint since 2017); can they have a winning July?

zambonir 2021-07-06 14:18:17 UTC #89

A couple of interesting notes re: other teams.

When last we reflected on what the Nationals might do at this season’s trade deadline, they were tied for third place in the National League East and 7 1/2 games behind the leading Mets.

The Nationals just went 19-9 in June. They entered Monday’s series opener against the Padres still in third place but four games behind the Mets after dropping four straight to the Dodgers to close out their final homestand of the first half.

On Monday, the Phillies beat a Cubs team that has lost 10 straight and still has a better record than them. But they are bracing for a grand fire sale at Wrigley Field.

bkox 2021-07-06 22:35:08 UTC #90

After having the toughest first half schedule in the National League to this point, the Phillies will have the easiest 2nd half schedule in MLB.

Phillies opponents for the rest of the year currently have a .470 winning percentage.
— Ben Silver ( @notinconsistent ) July 4, 2021

bigegypt0417 2021-07-09 19:42:37 UTC #91

So if the cubs are sellers and they make Craig Kimbrel available...should the phillies take a shot? He's been almost unhittable so far...and with him being only signed for this season and a club option...what does it take to get him?

BostonRoss 2021-07-09 19:56:27 UTC #92

Interesting question. I guess it depends on which teams would be competing for Kimbrel. The other team with a bad bullpen is the Reds; would they be going for it? They're further behind for their division but closer than the Phils in the wild card race. Most other contenders have closers. Would a rich team who already has a closer (Dodgers, Yankees) consider buying Kimbrel to supplement their bullpen?

bkox 2021-07-09 20:00:13 UTC #93

Have you seen Aroldis Chapman's numbers since the sticky stuff ban?

bigegypt0417 2021-07-09 20:02:31 UTC #94

The Yankees have an issue in that they, like the phillies, have a limited number of prospects available.

zambonir 2021-07-09 21:19:38 UTC #95

It doesn't take much to make deadline deals for rentals these these days. And of course a rich contending team would acquire a top closer to pitch the 8th, it happens fairly often.

If the Phillies are gonna play (i.e. buy), they should play. Rosenthal speculates that some team will step up and get Kimbrel packaged with either Bryant or Baez. That is a division-winning move IMO. Adding a mid-tier relief arm and a RH bench bat (Maikel Franco, anyone?) is more of a "we might have a shot" move.

But that's also just the Cubs' sweep talking, I'm not yet ready to believe they'll have a winning record over the next nine games.

Sabin 2021-07-10 20:09:19 UTC #96

Yeah, but unless the wheels completely fall off I tend to agree with your notion. I'm certainly not suggesting the Phillies attempt to go all in, but I guess as I become more resigned to the notion that Dombrowski will refrain from an attempt to bolster the 2022/23 clubs by selling what few value pieces he has, I'm becoming more inclined to him acquiring something with a bit more splash than a ho-hum addition. Though I still think buying is the wrong move.

The Phillies are frustrating spot at the moment.

bkox 2021-07-10 22:18:05 UTC #97

In NL East news... Ronald Acuna Jr had to be carted off the field after injuring his knee today. Could be a significant injury to their biggest bat.

Sabin 2021-07-11 01:02:00 UTC #98

Oof. Atlanta hasn't had a particularly fortunate year either.

zambonir 2021-07-11 03:06:15 UTC #99

We've been healthier than Atlanta and the Mets for sure.

One thing that jumped out at me today after Bohm's departure is how well he's been hitting since June 1 (.305/.376/.381). If you combine a resurgent Bohm and Cutch with a hot-streak Hoskins and a healthy Didi/Jean, they really could do some damage with just a few tweaks.

I mean, we seem to agree, would just as soon go big if they have to go at all. But every go-big scenario also involves sitting one of those players (unless they get a CF). Even if you just do a defensive upgrade you only want to do that if Didi or Bohm aren't hitting. And Torreyes seems to be more than adequate right now!

Nola vs. Pivetta tomorrow, gotta love it.

HopeSpringsEternal 2021-07-11 03:42:59 UTC #100

Complete tear of his right ACL - done for the year. Feel bad for him.