Phillies at the Trade Deadline

[zambonir]

The Phillies have two weeks before they have to make concrete decisions, and they are expected to use as much of that time as they can before plunging into the trade market — as buyers or sellers. A significant transaction in either state is not expected, although the Phillies hired Dave Dombrowski to run their baseball operations because he’s adept at navigating those decisions at this time of year.

He has favored action over the status quo in the past.

Gelb argues they could use a reliable 4th starter more than a bullpen upgrade (or CF). Simply a matter of more innnings/WAR. And, I'd think, a more reliable outcome (whereas you new reliever could still flounder, plus your old ones might still turn it around).

Phillies trade deadline primer: Will Dave Dombrowski buy, sell or stand pat?

He also says the Phils still view Suarez as a starter in 2022, so maybe just get on with that now?

[BostonRoss]

I am fine trading non top 30 type prospects

So we have only about half a dozen prospects we shouldn't trade!

[Squire]

Phillies have traded RHP Victor Santos to the Red Sox to complete the trade where we acquired INF CJ Chatham (who I legit don't know whether he is still in the organization - I think he is injured on the LHV roster)

[andyb]

Given that we all thought Maton was better than Chatham in the first place, one might surmise this is a wasted trade. Santos is not much of a prospect, but he is young and his stuff could tick up and he does have great control. Kind of a right-handed version of what Ranger Suarez was 4 years ago before his stuff ticked up.

[zambonir]

Yeah we lost that trade. Chatham was DFA'ed and cleared waivers, which theoretically means the Phillies could have gotten him for free in the first place, but Dombrowski drafted him in Boston. Plus we had the Rule 5 guy at the time.

He's still in the organization, but off the 40, and probably less of a prospect than Santos (if more useful current depth in theory). Santos has pretty nice stats this year too.

[julio]

Yeah we lost that trade. Chatham was DFA'ed and cleared waivers, which theoretically means the Phillies could have gotten him for free in the first place, but Dombrowski drafted him in Boston. Plus we had the Rule 5 guy at the time.

He's still in the organization, but off the 40, and probably less of a prospect than Santos (if more useful current depth in theory). Santos has pretty nice stats this year too.

I'm not sure we "lost that trade." It's not clear that either of these guys will have a major-league career. It's not clear that either of these guys' real value, measured by contribution to major-league success, is anything other than zero.

[bkox]

Mets just placed Lindor on the IL with an oblique injury. Another hit to their lineup

[zambonir]

Sure, perhaps we acquired a guy who would have been - and was - DFA'ed for a guy who would have been exposed in Rule 5 or outrighted. But I think the ceiling on Santos, while still unknown, is clearly higher than the ceiling on Santos, which is much closer to known. And Chatham didn't really fill a need at the time.

From Matt:

I have Chatham unranked and Santos in the top 30. Low 90s pitchability guy with a good split change. It isn’t a disaster trade, just a really bad one. https://t.co/WrWqISI2w4

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) July 17, 2021

Chatham was about to be DFA’d and the Phillies actually released and re-signed him. Fine risk, but they actually gave up a guy I had rated better at the time, not just in hindsight

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) July 17, 2021

[allentown]

Are the Phillies going to want to have some of the players whom they drafted or signed after the draft play this season? Perhaps they do and needed Santos' spot. A lot of trades like this one are resolved for cash. It just seems interesting timeing.

[zambonir]

That crossed my mind too, especially if Santos would have to be added to the 40 this year, but a young player with really good numbers this season who just got promoted to AA still seems like more than a throwaway.

In the big picture, I'm sure both the 180 limit and the trade deadline is affecting a lot of marginal decisions right now.

[bkox]

Jacob deGrom felt tightness in his right forearm during his most recent bullpen.

— Michael Mayer ( @mikemayer22 ) July 17, 2021

This is the 3rd time this year DeGrom has felt something in his arm. Hes going to go down at some point. Another reason the Phillies need to go for it IMO

[bkox]

For those that were interested in Andrelton Simmons.

Andrelton Simmons is slashing .229/.300/.305 after another out in the sixth. He’s been worth 0.1 fWAR so far this season.

That was not the plan.

— Nash Walker ( @Nashwalker9 ) July 17, 2021

[zambonir]

Fangraphs and BBref are pretty different on this. Didi is a mere 0.2 fWAR, so basically a wash, but Simmons is 2.0 defensively to Didi's 0.6.

BBRef WAR, Simmons is 0.9 to Didi's -0.4, which could be worth a full win - and the difference in the NL East - if that played out the same way over the last two months.

I think a better defender there might help the team especially when Didi isn't hitting either, and we have a team full of hitters. But the bench may already be providing enough, and the other factors (giving up something, Didi's salary) make a trade unlikely.

That said, the Phillies probably signed the wrong guy. They'd be no better or worse, but without the 2022 obligation to a declining player. And Galvis is better than both of them.

[bkeich]

I continue to contend that there is simply no way that the Phillies can come back and make the playoffs. No chance. None.

(Come on reverse Jinx, working so far)

[zambonir]

It's a shame they don't have a series against the Mets this month, but I don't see how you can't go for it big at this point, and maybe also go for it early to try and steal an extra win in just the next 10 days. The other teams have even more problems/flaws. They are now 2 games out. And they are clearly capable of winning a series against any team in the league when things break right. There is no reason to think that if they make the playoffs they would go meekly in the first round (at least since it won't be against the NL West champion).

[bkox]

Phillies, Astros and Yanks are among teams to check in on Starling Marte who seems likely to be traded. A sizable gap remains in contract talks with the Marlins as @BNightengale said. Miami’s offer is for more than the reported $30M for 3 years but extension hopes are fading.

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) July 18, 2021

[zambonir]

I wonder if they can get someone to take some of Herrera's contract in a deal if they acquire an expensive player (like Bryant or Kimbrel or both). The acquiring team could still DFA him if they don't want him (or the PR hit).

It makes sense that CF would be the focus, it's always been the hole. With Bohm having heated up before the COVID thing and Didi back a SS seems less likely.

[andyb]

A Jankowski/Williams platoon has been doing pretty well lately and even when they cool off, that platoon will play good defense.

I think pitching should be the priority, both starting and relief. Kimbrel is the big swing move I would imagine Dombrowski is thinking about.

[zambonir]

I think a starting pitcher probably does more for you than a reliever, though obviously they need both. But the line-up is also one injury or slump (from Bohm, Didi, Hoskins, Cutch) away from being the team that struggled in June. We're winning now not because the late-inning relievers have stopped blowing saves because because there haven't been as many save situations. An extra bat would help, and make for a stronger bench too. Williams has cooled as hard as Maton already and not sure we can expect Jankowski and Torreyes to keep it up either.

Realizing, of course, that the price would be high to do so much, and possibly foolhardy when it's still not likely a World Series team. But if we assume Dombrowksi is primarly a win-now guy by default, and his boss is truly hungry....

The big names we're hearing in CF are also all guys who would stay, though Marte would surely be a mistake at his age.

[bkox]

Dombrowski talks trade deadline, says Phillies have prospects other teams like