Phillies at the Trade Deadline

[kmc1019]

Organizations like the Yankees, Padres, Red Sox, Dodgers and Rays have so much more in the way of marketable prospects. Their # of blue-chip prospects is greater. Their depth is greater. Ability up take on salary is perhaps the only competitive advantage the Phillies may have relative to many teams. And Yes, after a decade in the wilderness, that is quite depressing.

[fish]

Ability up take on salary is perhaps the only competitive advantage the Phillies may have

That sounds more like a “wish that they would” than an actual real thing. And they could spend 20 million more this year just to finish a few games over .500. It made sense the last 2 winters to try to patch holes with money, but when do they stop throwing good money after bad? They have no more ability to take on money than the clubs you mentioned that have tradeable commodities.

[Sabin]

They have no more ability to take on money than the clubs you mentioned that have tradeable commodities.

Again, the Dodgers serve as an example - they have over $100M more invested in total payroll than the Phillies, while still having the prospects to acquire Scherzer and Turner from the Nationals. ($110M more than the Padres, whom they apparently outbid for the trade in the eleventh hour.)

[zambonir]

Gelb says the Phillies are shopping Howard and Marchan, but not for rentals.

A Very Phillies Day for Dave Dombrowski to ponder as trade deadline decisions...

I agree with both of these things, and yet, it would be hard to get mad if they don't make a stupid trade.

The Phillies weren’t going to change course based on one day or one week. They have played 102 games, and they have hovered at .500 the entire time. They are what they are. So, it is fair to wonder how meaningful of an addition the Phillies will make before Friday’s 4 p.m. trade deadline. MLB’s powers are stacking their rosters. The Phillies have not played a postseason game in 10 years. It is worth trying. It always is.

Everyone inside the clubhouse is aware of the team’s biggest advantage: The Phillies play one of the weakest schedules in MLB over the final two months. They play in the worst division in baseball. Is that enough?

“They always say 50-50 in the first 100 games and it’s what you do with the other 62,” Harper said. “It was perfect for us. We’re in a division that’s super tight. We’re in a division that — the Mets are good, the Braves are good — and we’ve got to beat both of those teams. We’re going to play those teams again in this division. We’ve got to beat the teams that we need to, and beat the teams that are really good as well. We’ve got a great schedule ahead of us.”

Do they always say that?

[el-pietro]

I think the idea is that every team will win 50 and lose 50 and the other 62 decides how everyone finishes? Not quite the same as saying only the final 63 games matter.

[andyb]

And do we have any confidence that this team could even pull off a 35-27 finish to win 85 games which would have like a 20% chance of beating the Mets?

[gmwannabe]

He's gonna panic and give up the store for rentals. i can't wait.
gm

[bkox]

Per sources, the Rockies have no plans to trade either Jon Gray or Daniel Bard today. Trevor Story is obviously still the big key to their Deadline day.

— Mark Feinsand ( @Feinsand ) July 30, 2021

[phillychuck]

I think that Billy Beane is supposed to have said that the first third of the season was for evaluating what you had, the second third was for tweaking the roster, and the last third was when the real competition occurred, but that's not exactly what Bryce was saying. Close, though.

The playoff possibility rests more on whether or not the Mets collapse a bit, which they are perfectly capable of, given they have a pretty hard schedule. This division could be won with even less than 85 wins if the Mets fade.

[BostonRoss]

What may have changed is that even if the Phillies make the playoffs and get past the first round, the probability of getting past the Dodgers/Padres has decreased.

[andyb]

Moving discussion of possible trade for Kyle Gibson for prospects potentially including Daniel Brito here. Gibson is better than Anderson so we'll need a better prospect. I like Brito and he is clearly having a great year, but he is also pretty much the same as Nick Maton. So he is probably a prospect we can trade. Teams always want to trade for the prospect on a hot streak and I don't think we should downgrade Maton just because he has been bounced around and misused the last couple of months.

[saycheese]

Phillies are in on Kyle Gibson. Daniel Brito is one of the names being discussed. Same source that gave me the Marchan info. Just passing it along. There are other teams who are in on Gibson. Not sure where the Phillies stand.

[saycheese]

Just to be clear Brito is one of the names. There are others involved and it I am hearing it would be a package of players. Brito was the only name I got. Also, there are several other teams involved so I don't know the Phillies chances of getting him.

Now my opinion, I would think one of their top 10 guys would have to be included. I am think Erik Miller might be a guy other teams would want. Not sure though, Just speculation on my part

[Patchmk88]

I’d love Gibson. Get home for next year too. If Brito is the biggest prospect going I’d jump all over it.

[Patchmk88]

Hmm I really like Miller so that would change my opinion a bit.

[andyb]

I'd expect it to be 2 to 3 players. Question is whether we would need a top 10 level prospect or whether Brito would be good enough along with some top 30ish players like Gutierrez and Hernandez in the failed trade. Matt Winkelman had him up to 20. Some teams may put him a little higher. Is that enough for Gibson?

I'd just caution that Gibson is good but not great. BABIP of .267 this year down from .313 and .330 the previous 2 years and he does not have a great K rate. He is better than league average but really kind of what we want Eflin to be and not a classic 1st or 2nd starter.

[saycheese]

Yeah I think he is there third best pitching prospect behind Abel/Painter. However in order to get something you have to give something. Unfortunately guys like Medina are not preforming well. So I almost think Miller would have to be in the deal in order to get it done. Just speculation on my part though

[andyb]

I'd still have Morales ahead of Miller. After that Miller definitely in a group of pitchers that could be our 4th best (including Falter).

[saycheese]

Yeah I think Gibson is a 3/4 starter type but they do bring premiums these days especially since he doesn't have a huge contract at 10 mill per year. I don't think Gutierrez or Hernandez gets it done, just my opinion. Too many teams are in Gibson its going to need to be a slight overpay. Plus I think Texas is willing to pay some of his salary to get better prospects

[bkox]

Kyle Gibson has a 6.26 ERA in 4 July starts.. Thats a bit worrisome