Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion - Part Deux

[allentown]

Certainly not their recent draft philosophy!

Yes, that's a part of the problem. The team seems to be constantly reorganizing management and acting counter to what they say their philosophy is. Do they even have a philosophy and a plan. As Zambonir says, they seem to have been laser focused on Machado. That seems more a hope and a prayer than a plan. Their big money in the draft and international amateur markets has gone primarily to hitters. That has yet to bear obvious fruit, although reasonable to be hopeful on Ortiz, Haseley, Bohm and to a lesser extent Crawford and Moniak. Encarnacion and LGJ are gone and the writing is on the wall wrt Randolph.

[California_Dreamin]

I believe AF made a great point yesterday about the end of the season and short of piggybacks on my comments about the late season veteran additions. While players generally are happy with deadline deals to enhance a team's chances of making the post season, it is still a line that must carefully be walked...and I believe Phillie management made a mistake in this area.

AF mentioned that adding all those veterans made the season more of a "win now" proposition than it was earlier and many of the youngsters probably began to feel the pressure instead of enjoying the journey. They did seem to play with less enjoyment than they had before all the moves were made.

I wasn't yet a phan of the 1963 Phillie team but have read the book View from the Dugout about that team and Manager Gene Mauch commented often that while that team ultimately finished 4th, they ended with a 56-35 rush [best record in the NL] and Mauch said it was a springboard to their wonderful '64 season because the youngsters got a taste of playoff pressure which helped them going forward.

I hope this disappointing end to this season doesn't harm the youngsters going into the 2019 season. It will be a very fascinating off season.

[EastFallowfield]

It's possible that the current team just doesn't have enough talent to win a division and it's not all about whose egos are troubled by management decisions. Not sure there are that many players on the roster who deserve to play no matter how disappointing their results.

[Austinfan]

Atlanta didn't know Acuna was Acuna, he put up good numbers for an underaged player in GCL and A ball, but didn't take off until he started jumping leagues at 19, they probably though he'd be a solid .800 OPS OF. Sometimes you get lucky.

BA #67 in 2017, #1 in 2018.

[zambonir]

It seems far more likely to me that Cabrera hurt the Phillies because of his actual play - he hasn't hit much, may actually be a worse defensive SS than Kingery, and was an unfamiliar double play partner to Hernandez - than because of chemistry. Beyond that, as Kapler finally admitted yesterday, it's been almost entirely the defense, which the pitchers had either been able to endure or overcome when things were going better.

If the clubhouse revolted because they decided to bench a .600 OPS rookie and a back-up catcher that would be a pretty fragile clubhouse. Imagine if they'd decided to go after a 3B or OF or pitcher? Since this is all purely speculative we could just as easily argue that the team stopped playing well after the deadline because they were disappointed the team didn't aggressively improve the roster. Would be totally reasonable for guys like Arrieta and Santana to feel that way, though they knew what they signed up for this year.

[Philsmania]

The young players got us to where we were at the end of July. When they were supplanted by the veteran acquisitions, they faded. That much is true. Why? Who knows.

I've said before that I don't think Kapler is the right guy to manage this team right now, just as Tito was the wrong man for that period in Phillies history. NBCSN-Philadelphia's writers have had some biting criticisms of Kapler lately. Considering the cozy relationship between the Phillies and Comcast, you can't help but wonder if that's a smoke signal that Kapler may start 2019 on a short leash.

[zambonir]

But who was supplanted besides Kingery, the worst everyday player in the league, a rookie bench player who shouldn't have been in the starting 8 to begin with (Crawford or Florimon would have been if they'd been healthy)? Bour and Bautista, in addition to being bench players, did not show up until the wheels were already falling off. Ramos too, really, given he wasn't available for two weeks.

This team was expected to go .500 because it had a lot of youth and a lot of question marks and over the past two months that showed. Hoskins is not yet a consistent threat, 3B and RF did not produce consistently, the 3-5 starters did not produce consistently. Plus they had a few flopping vets (Herrera, Arrieta, perhaps Hernandez). At different points in the season those elements did come, but not in the last 30-40 games.

[fish]

In retrospect, it looks like Kapler and Klentak have done as many things right as they have wrong, but baseball remembers how you end. Next year, do more right than wrong, or lose your job. Awful, awful end to this season. Their performance suggests this is going to get uglier after the season ends and the bitchfest begins. This year should be ending more positively than the last, yet I care less. Thanks Matt Klentak and Jose Bautista.

[zambonir]

Ironically, they have probably bought themselves some wiggle room. If they'd won the division this year anything less than a repeat and playoff series win would feel disappointing, if not fireable. Now just making a legit run at 87-90 games, hopefully while also making the playoffs (even if it's just wild card) will be progress.

But you get evaluated on how close you come to meeting your organizational goals and my guess is they exceeded those goals. Our goals/wishes were different, especially as the season progressed.

[mdougherty12]

Another article on the Phillies’ terrible defense in 2018:

The Worst DRS We’ve Ever Seen | FanGraphs Baseball

[zambonir]

This is the closest our Mr. Positive manager comes to throwing a player under the bus: implying Herrera wasn't in the best possible physical condition this season (despite Kapler himself saying otherwise in spring training).

Roman Quinn may play more center field in 2019

[Jay_Baller]

Well, good luck getting Roman through the season unscathed.

[David_Criss]

I liked the comparison to Vince Coleman that the TV announcers made yesterday. I remember the running Redbirds. Coleman would get on and before you know it he was on third and then Tommy Herr and his 10 homers had 100 plus RBIs. Could Coleman Herr be replicated to a certain degree by Quinn and Hernandez or Quinn and Kingery?

The Cardinals won with speed and defense.

[zambonir]

Different era. It's possible that with every team favoring power arms, power bats, strikeouts and OBP there's an inefficiency there; the Royals were kind of like that too. But even before sabrmetrics Earl Weaver baseball was probably more effective than Whiteyball, overall. I'd certainly like to see more a running game with Kingery and you'd like to think Herrera was still capable but we know this front office isn't going to like giving up the accompanying outs.

No way they just let Quinn be the starting CF, they are gonna have to have four-five OFs.

Meanwhile, still a drag Crawford couldn't play the field to end the season. If he's not the SS next year it will be because of injuries as much as his performance. My guess is he takes over the Florimon role.

[julio]

Leaving this topic open, for reminiscences, comments etc., about the just-ended season. Please try to take forward-looking discussion to the off-season thread, because this one will be closed fairly soon.

Thanks!

[bkeich]

I have to admit, I am surprised looking at the stats to see Morgan with a 3.83 ERA. Reliever ERA is always a suspect numbsr, but I didn't really 'feel' like he was doing that well. Good to see, seemingly worth a roster spot again next year.

[bkeich]

I do consider this season a failure, not huge, but still disappointing. Not the record, it is better than I thought, but unfortunate in that we didn't really learn what was needed about too many players.

Nola is a stud. No other starting pitcher really is certainly a part of the future, same situation as the start of the year, just a bunch of unknowns.

Relievers are much better, SD established that he is capable of being a top line reliever, Neris is still solid despite his mid season struggles, others such as Ramos had good seasons. I think this is a team strength.

Alfaro is a major league starting catcher. He is still growing, hopefully losing his starting job for the last month didn't set him back. Knapp is neither good defensovdly, offensively and made way too many baseball gaffes as he played. He is not a good player

Infield is a disaster. Santana is an unfortunate block at 1B. Hernandez is a solid 2B but this will be his last season in Philly I think if he isn't traded this off season. Kingery was not ready for the majors and it showed. He really should go to AAA, but won't be. Crawford had a lost season. Florimon is a dime a dozen AAAA utility guy. Franco is interesting, but his defense and terrible foot speed greatly limit him.

Herrera is what he us. Enigma. He is still a plus. Hoskins should be better defensively next year, he is a good enough athlete and a good to very good offensive player. He proved himself. Williams is interesting too, but he hates to walk, that really hurts, really he should be a 4th OF.

Next season is an odd year, Altherr looks like a great player in those seasons.

Quinn just needs to stay healthy

Basically, we enter next season with most of the same questions as we entered this year with.

[mdougherty12]

I don't see any real argument for the addition of Wilson Ramos setting back Alfaro's development. Alfaro started 18 of 44 games after Ramos was added to the roster (and would have started a few more without the quad strain in the last week). Alfaro also finished strong, with a .339/.414/.554 slash line after the addition of Ramos.

[zambonir]

Yeah, the difference between a 40-60 catching tandem and a 50-50 catching tandem is nothing, and if you assume Ramos won't hold up physically (and/or will DH) even less so. It's definitely not a problem area. They can easily go with just Alfaro and a defensive free agent, or they can try to keep Ramos.

I'm a little disconcerted about the Herrera stuff coming out in the press this weekend. If he was not in shape in March why are we just hearing about it now and how was he the best hitter in baseball for six weeks (even if he did wear down)? Seems to me it's a sign they intend to keep him though, i.e., it's motivational, because "he could be a great CF again if you get him in shape" doesn't seem like the best trade position.

[Philsmania]

My goal coming into this season was a winning season and marked improvement in the pythagorean. We failed at both winning only 80 games and going 76-86 in the pythagorean, improving by only four games from last season's pythatorean of 72. So, at best, we spun our wheels in 2018.

What's worse is that we come out of this season with more question marks than we came into it. Herrera was pretty much a foundation player coming in. Now, he's a question mark. Crawford was our shortstop of the future, now he's a question mark. Kingery was our likely second baseman of the future, now he's a question mark. Hoskins is not a big question mark with his bat--aside from needing to determine whether he is a a Howard (a centerpiece slugger) or a Burrell (a supporting slugger)--but in the field we don't know if he can play any position competently. Altherr is now a question mark. Neris came in as our closer and he is now a question mark, along with the closer position. Our entire starting rotation after Nola is still a question mark. What does Arrieta have left? We saw both good and bad from Efflin, Pivetta and Velazquez. Will any of them take a step forward or is what we see pretty much what we get with them? In terms of Velasquez, unfortunately, I think the latter is more likely. He is as much of any enigma here at the end of this third Phillies season as he was at the end of the first.

I actually think the Franco question has been answered and that answer is that it is time to move on from him. He was awesome in July but in August he pretty much went back to being what he was from April through June and his September didn't get off to a good start before he got hurt and pretty much had the rest of his season wiped out. Maybe he's just another one of these guys like Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista, Chris Davis, Marlon Byrd and Brandon Moss who spin their wheels for several seasons and, in most cases, through multiple organizations before they click. Or, maybe he'll slide into oblivion like Domonic Brown. I think it is time to move on from him.

The pharm was exposed as something of a fraud. Something isn't right with the way we scout and or develop stateside prospects. The saving grace for the system is, interestingly, international signings. Eight of our top fifteen prospects, per mlb.com's list are international signings. But, the bread and butter, is supposed to be stateside players we scout and develop.

In short this feels like where we were at the end of the 1992 season. We are four years into a rebuild but we are showing little improvement and the pharm--though not nearly as barren as it was back then--is not in a position to help us despite years of losing and high draft picks. As a result, we are now in a position where need to rely upon veteran additions from outside the organization to make us a winner. The cautionary tale there is that while 1993 was a heck of a joyride, it ended up being a one-shot winner and an oasis in a desert of losing baseball.