Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion - Part Deux

[zambonir]

I think the Phillies knew they were implementing things that the players weren't necessarily ready for, just like they had a pitching rotation of three guys who started and finished as question marks. That's what you do when you're not actually trying to win. The purpose of the season was to find out what they had; the vets were just meant to provide a bit of quality and stability for guys to sink or swim around them, and the ability to play KaplerBall was one of the tests. Now they have to decide who's worth keeping and consider both their personnel and their managerial/analytical tactics going forward.

The problem is we don't seem that much closer to answers on most of the young players - or we have the same answer- compared to last year. But perhaps that's already an answer - i.e. if nothing has changed since last year the player is not worth keeping on non-rebuilding team.

Hard to know if the chemistry really did get disrupted, certainly nobody was against replacing the worst hitter in the league with Cabrera at the time, Ramos was a steal, and the bench needed help too. But they went for it and didn't get it so now you can firmly say it wasn't worth it, and if they hadn't made a single trade, we'd be in the same spot (maybe better!). Of course you can also say they should have traded for a defensive shortstop and a starting pitcher instead of bats.

[EastFallowfield]

Remember in spring training when they would swap the LFer and RFer depending on who was batting? Why didn't they do any of that kind of thinking when they had our 1st baseman playing third covering the entire left side of the infield when they could have put one of their slightly more mobile players there during those shifts?

[Lawman]

Great thread here.

Two nuggets

" Simply moving players around the field doesn't make them "versatile." They have to actually be able to play those other positions in order for it to work."

And

"At some point during the shift where Carlos Santana was playing shortstop last night, someone in the dugout should have stopped and asked the rest of the gang, "Hey, we do realize that Santana is playing shortstop right now, right? We sure this is a good thing?""

Nick Francona (NickFrancona)

[zambonir]

Of course, that is the person who hates Gabe Kapler more than anyone in the world. But it's true. Just putting the 3B at SS without considering who is actually playing 3B seems, to borrow from Gabe, sub-optimal.

But they've been willing to choose sub-optimal infields every night, shift or not. Clearly that shift was based on the likelihood of a ball not going there, as most of the failed shifts are.

[California_Dreamin]

Vin Scully was famous for many wonderful sayings. One of his most poignant was the fact that " when you put a bad defensive on the field, the ball will always find him." I found it so sadly ironic that in a year where the management took such great pains to try and keep their young pitchers physically healthy they did their very best to damage them mentally.

One of my favorite things to do when I have entirely toooo much time on my hands [rarely] is list my all time favorite Phillies teams and my least favorite teams. Of course 1964 will forever be my favorite team and other teams I absolutely loved were the 1977, 2008-2009 teams and I really liked that 1974 team. I could not stand the 1965 teams, most of the late 80's teams were almost unwatchable, and sadly I would list this team in my bottom third, something I never anticipated.

As per usual, the Phils once again found themselves trying out an idea several years after it had successfully been done elsewhere but without the proper forethought involved to insure this new idea would work. They want to emulate the Dodgers and I believe this was one of the reasons they hired Kapler. But the Dodgers made sure they had the personnel to make it work...you MUST have players capable of playing multiple positions, you can't simply will this in to existence.

And the Dodgers are a veteran group, with players fully invested in their careers and comfortable with the idea of sacrificing the self for the greater good. Not so easy to do with young players and I feel Kapler has caused terrible mental damage to youngsters like Franco, Williams, Crawford and Herrera. Young guys need stability and like it or not, they play better when they know they will be in there if/when they are going good.

One of the lasting images I will have of Kapler this, to me, purely forgettable seasons was of Kapler pinch hitting for Herrera immediately after he had just homered in the game. I can only imagine the mental confusion that caused in a player who oft times seems confused on the field as it is.

Count me as one who no longer believes Kapler's Pollyanna theatrics.

[ButlerBulldog]

One of the lasting images I will have of Kapler this, to me, purely forgettable seasons was of Kapler pinch hitting for Herrera immediately after he had just homered in the game. I can only imagine the mental confusion that caused in a player who oft times seems confused on the field as it is.

I am convinced Herrera’s struggles since the start of the second half are due to Kapler’s micromanagement and strange moves. As someone who marches to the beat of his own drum at times, I’ve learned that I’m happiest and most comfortable when I’m in an environment that provides me with structure and routine but also allows me the freedom to be myself. I don’t believe Kapler has provided his players with such an environment.

I can imagine that Herrera—and perhaps several other players—are perplexed by many of Kapler’s moves and may actually be paralyzed at times because of nagging thoughts and worries about whether they’ll be in the lineup every day, where they’ll hit in the lineup and what position they’ll play. Herrera no longer seems to have a set position, and Kapler has shown that he’ll hit him almost anywhere in the lineup. I’ve a hard time understanding how constant fluctuations in Odubel’s role are supposed to help him do his job. After all, his job changes from game to game.

Kapler would do well to stop tinkering with every aspect of his roster, as the current group of Phillies doesn’t seem well-suited to playing musical chairs with their spots in the lineup. If he’s unable to do that, Klentak must find players who don’t mind being shuffled in and out of the lineup, as the approach management has taken with this roster hasn’t worked. Wins and losses aside, this team actually seems to be moving away from contention rather than toward it.

[California_Dreamin]

Like others, I also believe the team did immense damage to the yung player by bringing in basically superfluous mediocre veterans at the deadline and then playing them over youngsters who had actually carved out starting roles on a first place team.

I suspect they thought guys like Cabrera and Bautista would come in to play bench roles but instead we have witnessed far too many nights where they were starting in place of some of the very guys who had helped the team get into first place up to then, guys like Kingery, Herrera and Williams.

Look, I understand that to succeed as a young player, you must have a certain amount of mental toughness and I have little doubt that someone like Kingery has the will and mental toughness to be successful long term. I also think Crawford seems to be mentally tough and can withstand Kapler's strange ways. But I do worry about players like Herrera and Williams, two talented but sensitive souls, who may at some point simply mentally check out.

I know money will be the deciding factor, but I can't help but believe that if all things are equal between the Phillies and another team for the services of a top notch free agent, Kapler will not be a positive match point, he will be a detriment.

[EastFallowfield]

Williams is clearly hurt, there's no way they'd play Bautista this much if that wasn't the case. They have talked about numerous physical issues he's had of late. Shoulder and hand?

[flyers19rw]

Just some team numbers to consider. If a player is evaluated by five tools-hitting; hitting for power; speed; arm strength and defense, perhaps a team can be as well. Others may find better categories for analysis, more advanced analytics but here are some general ones to consider:
1. Hitting- BA-.237, 29th in the game; OBP-.316, 14th in the game; Strikeouts-1422, third in all baseball.
2. Hitting for power-SLG-.397, 25th in MLB; OPS-.713, 23rd in MLB
3. Speed-SB-64, 25th in MLB; CS-24, seventh in MLB
4. Arm Strength (Pitching?)-ERA-3.81, 14th in MLB; WHIP-1.270, twelfth in MLB; RA/G-4.38, 14th in MLB
5. Fielding-Errors-113, second in MLB; Fielding percentage-.980

This 2018 Phillies don't hit much, strike out a lot which kills rallies and don't have much power
The team has some speed but doesn't use it that often. Pitching is average for the game both for starters and relievers and is probably the best part of the team. The fielding is awful.
If this skill set applied only to a specific player, if he was a position player, he'd probably be a bench player. If he was a pitcher he'd be most likely a four of fifth in the rotation or a middle of a game reliever. If there is talent on this roster, its not showing well. The phans see this and attendance reflects it. That has to change or the town will write off this club.

[Austinfan]

While they're not officially on IR, Franco, Crawford and Williams have been hindered by injuries, Hernandez by the foot.
And Florimon never really came back from his injury.
So depth would have been a problem without the veteran additions.

I think 2019 may be a "tread" water season, which is not a bad thing if expectations are tempered, but there's the rub, people start thinking in terms of 2008 instead of say 2001, when they went from 65 to 86 wins. Now part of the reason they floundered until 2008 was being cheap and some bad FO decisions, but they weren't ready for a run in 2001 either.

Hopefully Klentak no only understands this, but can convince Middleton that sometimes patience is a virtue.

[Lucky_Beagle]

The most interesting thing to me is the amount of strike outs related to the lack of team power. I anticipate power hitters strike out a lot, however non power hitters have got to find a way to put the ball in play more often.

[schillingfan]

I still don't understand the deadline deals hurting team chemistry. The only real change was Cabrera replacing Kingsley. Ramos was on DL for about two weeks. So Kingsley went to bench and Valentin to victory AAA.

[zambonir]

I don't know that it's true the Dodgers were more veteran than the Phillies. Taylor and Bellinger and Austin Barnes were basically first-year starters. Kiki Hernandez had been around a little but no more than Herrera, Franco or Hernandez. Only Forsythe was a vet and he was kind of a utility guy to begin with.

The whole thing might have worked better if it had been centered around Kingery, Hernandez, Crawford and Florimon to begin with but they refused to move Hernandez and the two shortstops got hurt.

It's easy to point the finger at Kapler. I suspect if Mackanin or Wathan had managed this team more traditionally and conservatively we'd be looking at the same record. And Herrera hit the wall long before his role - in the batting order or in the field - started to change. Ironically, he also played his best baseball of the year after being benched on Opening Day.

Once the starting pitchers faltered no question we saw a lot of panic-managing. Of everything. They were so desperate to score or prevent runs that every inning, every chance to get or prevent just one run, became like the late innings of a playoff. And the team certainly did not respond to that.

[California_Dreamin]

SF...this is simply not true. Every added veteran meant a young player like Knapp or Valentin went to the minor leagues and to suggest that Bautista didn't take time from Herrera or Williams is incorrect also. I remember how I used to get blasted for suggesting that clubhouse chemistry was real even if it couldn't be quantified numerically.

This does not necessarily mean that players suddenly don't get along, it often means that the pecking order of clubhouse leadership gets changed and this is not always a good thing. For instance, much has been made of Hoskins becoming a leader for the team...fair enough and I believe it.

But whereas a Kingery or Alfaro is likely to listen to a gentle nudge from Hoskins about this or that, and Hoskins is likely to give said nudge, it is less likely that a Cabrera or Bautista will listen to the nudge, much less receive one from a younger and less established player.

This was one of the reasons I so advocated the extra effort required to have brought in Machado. He is the same age as these Phillie players and would have cemented the talent base, age base and left side of the infield. I know my view is in the minority but I believe had the Phils acquired Machado they would have won the NL East.

It is well worth noting that even on a Dodger team that changes position players as often as I change socks, Machado has been batting 3rd and playing SS [save for a few games when Turner was hurt] ever since they acquired him.

I think he was the difference maker, a guy who would have fit both on the field and in the clubhouse.

[zambonir]

If Asdrubal Cabrera came in and became the clubhouse leader the team already had bigger problems.

And Jose Bautista didn't join the team until it was almost September. The team was already dying by then. He's made six starts for the Phillies, that's not even 2 a week.

Nobody was worried about chemistry at the time the moves were made. The offense was floundering and the bench was garbage (as was Kingery, all we read on game threads every day was, bench him or send him down!).

Did it hurt Knapp and Valentin? Sure. Was the development of two young, possibly marginal bench players more important than winning at that particular point in the season? Absolutely not. Klentak's improvement of the team using bargain trades and the waiver wire was nothing but solid GMing even if it didn't work out, even if it did upset chemistry.

Not sure where I land on Machado at this point. He would have been worth it compared to what they did instead. But he probably wouldn't have been enough (unless they'd also gotten a pitcher). I think they were probably still right not to go hard after the division, it just wasn't fun to watch it fall apart. But it would have fallen apart if they'd stood pat at the deadline too. A lot of pro coaches and athletes I've known like to say that "chemistry is winning." When things were going good on this team Santana was a genius acquisition (leadership, mentoring Franco) and so was Arrieta. When they weren't (and when those two players specifically stopped doing well), suddenly the chemistry looks bad too.

[Austinfan]

I don't think it was the veterans per se, but rather the attitude that we have to win instead of just having fun.
It usually takes a couple times around before young players relax and enjoy the pressure, Schmidt had his struggles before he became a post-season giant.
So bringing in the veterans sorta signaled "we got to win now" when they didn't have to win now, they had to learn to enjoy a pennant race - the teams that have fun playing those games tend to be less tight than the teams that feel the pressure to win.
I'll be the Phillies were a lot looser in 2008 than in 2011.

[allentown]

The problem I have with 2019 is tread water and 2020 is make the playoffs is that this presumes a flow of talent from the farm to the big club over that two year span which simply doesn't seem to be there. The Braves added some top drawer, young positional talents this year. This is where having top-rated prospects comes into play. Acuna is only 20 years old. He's put up a .930 OPS for Atlanta. We don't have anybody like that in our pipeline to give the team a quick internal boost over the next two seasons. We have two young middle IFs whom the team is high on, but neither has matched the performance of the Braves Albies, who came up for a partial season last year at age 20. Kingery played a full season for us this year, but at age 24 and with an OPS below .600 and at a position he really can't played. Crawford made his debut at 23 in a season so riddled with injury that it's impossible to gauge his impact, but again playing out of position much of the time. Either they blossom in year 2 or 3 or there really isn't much positional help available internally. That puts it down to money. We can acquire position talent on the FA market as well this winter or next or the one after. If the lineup needs to be solved with the pocketbook, then there is no reason to wait beyond the upcoming very rich FA class. On the pitching front, the Braves post-June rotation is 27 years old and younger.

On the pitching side, it is a waste of talent to squander Nola's prime on treading water seasons. I think Seranthony should also be quite good next season and Arrieta moves a year closer to possibly timing out. Our other young pitchers will definitely have the age and pitching experience next season to expect it won't get a whole lot better by waiting. Among the starters, only Eflin can be said to be young next year. Pivetta will be 26 and Velasquez 27. Nola is an established #1 now and Arrietta is pushing upward in his 30s. I'd like to see another quality FA SP add, not necessarily a long-term guy but a guy for 2019 and 2020 at least. We likely have Medina by 2020. I'll time Sixto when he shows he's healthy and back to form. Is there other pitching talent close enough in the minors that is good enough to be treading water waiting for? A lot of contenders for the 5th spot in the rotation.

I think 2019 needs to be a push for post-season season.

[zambonir]

I don't think we have to worry about the front office being passive this off-season. If anything the big problem is they really seem to be counting on Machado, and have been for several years, and it's a steep drop if they don't get him. There's also no way, IMO, that they don't add some kind of #2 starter (let's not even call Arrieta that) and at least two position players (regardless of the acquisition method).

I don't hate this team and I enjoyed this season, but the reality is, what we learned about the roster this year is most of these guys either don't have it, aren't ready, or are merely average regulars (or worse when you include defense). They're all replaceable under the right circumstances. Hoskins, the best of the group, is still limited by being a RH 1B. Quinn, the most exciting, can't stay healthy. And we may have seen Herrera, Franco, Hernandez and even Williams' ceiling (ditto Santana just due to his age). Of course it's also possible one or more of those guys could still have an All-Star season in them. But not probable.

2020 might be the year the Phillies can more realistically win 100 games and/or a World Series, but next year they will certainly be trying, at worst, to be playing a meaningful game on the last day of the regular season. No way to know how things will really play out; the Braves could backslide, but the Nats could also be back.

[nycphils]

According to McPhail, the plan has always been to grow pitchers and buy hitters. We will see if they can do it.

[zambonir]

Certainly not their recent draft philosophy! We might also see them use some pitchers to buy a hitter.

I believe that quote actually dates back to McPhail's time as a general manager (possibly even before the Orioles). He may have reiterated it as something he generally believes but it's not necessarily a guiding maxim these days (plus he's not the GM).