Discussion - Part Deux

zambonir 2018-09-20 01:40:13 UTC #482

Certainly Harper in LF, a rejuvenated Herrera in CF and some combination of Quinn/Altherr/Williams would be the ideal OF both defensively and offensively. But you can absolutely live with Harper in RF. Maybe he moves to LF after Hoskins moves back to 1B (assuming that doesn't happen soon).

Point is there isn't really any current OF you wouldn't happily replace with Harper in some way, regardless of how else you shuffle 'em.

Austinfan 2018-09-20 04:08:50 UTC #483

If Quinn could stay healthy and learn to be more disciplined as a hitter, he'd be the ideal CF, he could be elite as a fielder.
Harper in RF, Altherr/Herrera/Williams in LF (or Altherr as 4th OF and defensive replacement).

I have nothing against Harper if the price is right, 5yr/$175M, but not 10yr/$350M.
I think in his 30s he's going to be a below average fielding corner OF, and if he slips to .800-.850 OPS a 2-3 WAR player at best.

julio 2018-09-20 15:24:33 UTC #484

If Mike Schmidt were 45 years younger, he’d be an ideal cleanup hitter, and an elite third baseman.

bigegypt0417 2018-09-20 15:34:42 UTC #485

He's fine for getting on base. His time in the majors is not huge but he's at a 357 OBP. That's over part of the two seasons he's had some time...that type of OBP put him well in the top half of all CF'ers. That's in line with his monor league numbers as well.

andyb 2018-09-20 15:56:05 UTC #486

The last few weeks really emphasize that this team needs a number 3 hitter. We have a deep lineup, but we are really not taking advantage of the high OBP guys at the top of the order. It is almost comical that we have had multiple guys bat 9th one day and then 3rd shortly thereafter (Hernandez and Quinn). Cabrera is probably the closest to a number 3 hitter that we have but he is not ideal. Ramos has the highest batting average but is such a liability on the basepaths that you really don't want him hitting 3rd.

Given that Machado is a higher average hitter than Harper (whose OBP like Hoskins is due largely to walks), he should still be the free agent priority whereever he might play defensively. We are hitting .237 as a team and compound that by not being great at situational hitting. Adding a real number 3 hitter would help solve some of those problems.

allentown 2018-09-20 17:37:50 UTC #487

And he doesn't cost a draft pick and he plays a position where it is harder to find offensive punch and where the Phillies have a greater need. I don't think it's doable, but Machado is certainly the best guy to add -- the guy who will make the biggest difference and who has the ability to step down the defensive ladder and still be a plus defender at another position. I'm probably an outlier, but value him at almost twice Harper going forward. Walks are nice, but 2nd and 3rd a base hit gets two runs with top of the order guys on base, while a walk merely fills the bases. Again, a walk is a plus: avoid an out, add a baserunner, work the pitcher. A hit is better. Getting a good OBP with a BA around .230 is far from ideal.

andyb 2018-09-20 19:11:14 UTC #488

I just think it would be nice to add a .350 OBP guy to the lineup that can hit close to .300. It seems a strange reality, but I almost think we are at the point in baseball where hits might be undervalued. Everyone is looking for walks and power from launch angle. The hitter who can use all fields and hit for a high average may be undervalued. I am starting to warm to Haseley being a good fit for what this lineup needs even if his lack of power and good CF defense makes him more of a second division regular. He provides some of what this lineup is missing.

flyers19rw 2018-09-20 20:42:26 UTC #489

Haseley is a real prospect. Scanning that draft class, he has been the fastest moving player in the first round. Already up to AA ball and probably would have been called up to LV for the Int. League POs if he hadn't had to deal with some off of the field concerns. Check his numbers in the FSL, a strong pitcher's league. They're top level. Then he went on to Reading and did quite well there. He may have some flaws like a lack of power and is probably best suited in a corner OF slot because of his defense, but if he turns into an Anthony Benetendi type player, are we going to complain?

Philsmania 2018-09-20 20:48:05 UTC #490

flyers19rw:

andyb:

I am starting to warm to Haseley being a good fit for what this lineup needs even if his lack of power and good CF defense makes him more of a second division regular. He provides some of what this lineup is missing
Haseley is a real prospect. Scanning that draft class, he has been the fastest moving player in the first round. Already up to AA ball and probably would have been called up to LV for the Int. League POs if he hadn't had to deal with some off of the field concerns. Check his numbers in the FSL, a strong pitcher's league. They're top level. Then he went on to Reading and did quite well there. He may have some flaws like a lack of power and is probably best suited in a corner OF slot because of his defense, but if he turns into an Anthony Benetendi type player, are we going to complain?

It's also important to note that his numbers at CLW were good despite getting off to a slow start.

andyb 2018-09-20 21:57:27 UTC #491

Haseley is definitely a real prospect and has made decent progress. He just has not shown a great deal of power and probably won't stick in CF - things that push him out of various top 100 rankings.

Hard to evaluate his progress versus other college players in the top half of the first round. He certainly is doing better than Pavin Smith who we looked hard at. I would give McKay a pass on not getting to AA since he is also pitching. Keston Hiura drafted right after Haseley (who we were never linked to) is doing about as well while playing the infield.

Of course Jo Adell who was picked 2 picks after Haseley is outperforming him. Making AA as a HS player 3 years younger than Haseley. He is going to be near the top of most top 100 lists this winter.

I don't know how good Haseley will be. He is a decent prospect and relative to draft position has done better than Moniak or Randolph. Too soon to tell on Bohm. My point is that his set of skills might be just what this lineup needs. We have too many guys drawing walks and too few players with a high average who can knock those players in. His skills are a lot like Benintendi, though we should remember that Benintendi was already in the majors at Haseley's current age.

Austinfan 2018-09-20 22:50:42 UTC #492

How much power did Yelich show early in his career?

nycphils 2018-09-20 23:00:24 UTC #493

And Benitendi hits 15-20 HR per year in the majors and slugged .500-.550 in his two seasons in the minors.

By contrast, Haseley has slugged .424 in the minors. You have identified the problem...we’d all be legitimately thrilled if Haseley hit like Benitendi.

mdougherty12 2018-09-20 23:23:56 UTC #494

Yelich showed decent power in the minors (ISOs in the .170-.240 range), but limited power in the big leagues from age 21-23 (ISOs just above .100). First power spike in MLB at age 24, now another jump at age 26.

Austinfan 2018-09-21 04:01:43 UTC #495

If I were to identify the biggest problem this season, it was playing too well and raising false expectations, followed by numerous veteran additions which killed team chemistry.

Young rebuilding teams have a special chemistry, because expectations are low, young players can make mistakes and learn on the job without pressure and develop a core of starters who play together and bond. That should have been this season, with Franco at 3B, Crawford at SS, Kingery as Zobrist Jr, Altherr in RF, Williams in LF, Herrera in CF, Quinn coming up, etc. Instead when they brought in Santana and Arrieta, they started creating expectations that they would compete, and then all the veterans before the TDL reinforced that attitude.

Problem was the rebuild was still in progress, but instead of kids playing every day you had a team focused on winning, not player development. Now bad luck contributed, Crawford injured, Altherr went south, Herrera went to Jupiter, Kingery should have been in AAA, etc. But I think there's also a psychology of a rebuilding team that was violated.

I'm not blaming anyone, when you're in 1st place it's hard to say we really don't belong here so we're going to just play the kids and have fun and not worry if we hit a downward spiral. But I think in a sense it was counterproductive, had they started slower, the kids got to play, and then got hot, they'd be in much better shape going into the offseason.

This offseason, instead of trying to add WAR, they should continue to focus on rebuilding, Machado is a wet dream but Harper at the right price, given his age would be a good addition. Ramos, if they think he can be a mentor, would be a good caddy for Alfaro and eventually Grullon. But Santana has to go unless you are willing to pay $20M for a utility player, because Hoskins needs to play 1B and we need to open up spots in the OF for Haseley sometime in 2019 and Moniak sometime in 2020. I don't want any more 30+ free agents - that's for two years from now when the team is truly competitive and just needs some short-term veteran patches.

tom81 2018-09-21 10:01:59 UTC #496

Hoskins’ defense is bad wherever you put him, 1B may be a bit better than LF but I don’t I don’t think is is better enough to decide the composition of the team next year. We need his bat so we are stuck with bad defense in one of two positions.

Your timeline on the two kids is aggressive, there is nothing wrong with slowing it down if their play doesn’t force the issue.

tom81 2018-09-21 10:08:48 UTC #497

For all of Kapler’s innovations I’m surprised that when he puts on the shift for a left handed batter that he doesn’t move our 3B to the short OF spot that the 2B is playing and leave the better fielding SS in the left side of the field to cover all of that room. That short OF spot has to be the far easier position to play and our 3B has generally been a worse fielder than our 2B or SS this year.

fish 2018-09-21 12:12:08 UTC #498

I’ve come to three conclusions at the end of this season:
1) they were just as likely to have played bad ball the second half of the season playing conventionally as they have been playing the odds.
2) that being said, overdoing playing by the stats put some undo stress on players (emotional, physical, and in any other way possible) just to result to the same outcome of failure/losses.
3) if they plan on continuing with this approach next season, 1/3 of the roster needs to be turned over to get players at least remotely capable of implementing it.

allentown 2018-09-21 15:31:17 UTC #499

I agree with both you and AF. I think something did change with the addition of the vets at the deadline and it was a change for the bad. That ended the magic.

I agree with you that the positional flexibility was way overdone and was a lot to ask of kids who hadn't even been prepared for this in the minor leagues. It had a strong whiff of faddishness and the attempt to personally bring something new and important from the Dodgers organization. The Dodgers are a smart enough organization not to implement something this radical without the players to pull it off. It often seemed that the Phillies never even considered whether or not their players were up to the challenge and what benefit would actually derive from this change. You are right that a lot of personnel changes are needed to carry this off successfully. Playing too much by the stats, with a novice stats crew still learning their craft, certainly did put undo stress on the kids, to little positive result. Maybe it was viewed as a learning experience for the kids this season, and then the wins just surprisingly took off.

I think a deterioration in W-L the second half probably was likely, but it wasn't certain and the magnitude of the deterioration was shocking and I think avoidable.

AF is correct that we are still rebuilding. No stronger proof to me than the enormous change in minor league staff, both Jordan and the hitting coaches and I suspect still more to come. These aren't the sort of whole-sale changes a team normally makes this late in the process, which means the process is far from over.

nycphils 2018-09-21 16:04:22 UTC #500

I think there is a lot of post hoc analysis going on here...a result looking for a reason, rather than simpler explanations like luck and one run game results evening out (well, maybe that’s luck or maybe mean reversion).

allentown 2018-09-21 16:20:36 UTC #501

But there is no reason to expect 'luck and one-run games' to even out or return to some natural level. If we are picking red and black balls from an urn with 50 red balls and 50 black balls, and will pick all the balls, then yes, even though our first picks produce 8 reds and 2 blacks, we can be assured that we will regress to the mean 50%. But in a real world of infinite possibilities, going the first half plus of a season doing exceedingly well in one-run games, I think predicts not a poor final 40% of season in one-run games, but instead predicts continued success. Although close to 100 games may be said to be a small sample size, it is small odds that a team does well over 100 games by chance. There is a reason it is doing that well and given changes to that team or its competition it is likelier than not that it will continue to do well and continue to find ways to win more one-run games than it loses.