Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion - Part Deux

[Lawman]

Since the initial thread is locked due to hitting the max number of replies, time for part 2.

[ButlerBulldog]

In response to zambonir’s post at the end of the previous thread, I tend to agree that Altherr doesn’t seem to be in the Phillies’ long-term plans, as his struggles at the Major League level show that he just doesn’t have what it takes to be a successful player. His numbers from last season seem to be the exception rather than rule, and as he’s already older than Herrera, Hoskins, Quinn and Williams, it’s unlikely he’ll get better.

Moreover, if the Phillies pursue Harper in free-agency—and all signs point to them doing so—they’re not going to leave room for Altherr in an outfield with several players who are far more productive.

[andyb]

I would not give up on Altherr after one poor season. He is 27 and 1 season removed from an 856 OPS year and he plays decent defense. Seems there is something there that could be salvaged if he is healthy. The last thing you want to do is give away an 800 OPS OF in their prime. Maybe the bench role will never suit him, but his career has been so riddled with injury that I am not sure we have answered the question of how good he can be and in what roles.

If Hoskins moves back to 1B we actually don't have a lot of RH outfielders.

[zambonir]

There are a lot of unknowns, including Hoskins' position and Quinn's health. He is certainly a capable 5th OF and possibly more. But if Quinn does stick and they do sign a FA (doesn't have to be Harper) and Kingery is a bench player (i.e. neither the starting SS nor the starting 2B) that's 5 OFs plus Kingery (who is RH).

Obviously his trade value would be low, while his practical value is too high to just leave him off the 40. He could still be traded for something though. Of course so could Williams or Herrera. But it's hard to see a path where he can crack the Top 3 again and Quinn has him beat as the 4th OF. Health being a question for both of them, which is perhaps reason enough ot keep both on the 40 (but I'm assuming this is Altherr's last option).

[allentown]

If Hoskins moves back to 1B we actually don't have a lot of RH outfielders.

But it's a near certainty that Hoskins isn't moving back to 1B in 2019.

[zambonir]

I certainly wouldn't wager on it, but you never know. They could take a look at Santana's declining numbers and this team's poor defense, plus the presence of Bour, and consider trading him. He could also finish out the second half of his deal in a reduced role. Unlike the 2013 Phillies this team can both afford it and has options.

Or they could make Santana the 3B.

[ButlerBulldog]

But it's a near certainty that Hoskins isn't moving back to 1B in 2019.

Agreed. It’s unlikely that Bour will be around next season, but I’d be very surprised if the Phillies moved both Santana and Bour. My guess is that Hoskins plays left field for one more season and then shifts back to first base in 2020. Things might change if they manage to sign Harper, as Williams would be able to play the remaining corner outfield spot, with Herrera remaining in center, but that’s probably a long shot.

On the other hand, the Phillies’ beat writers are dropping hints that only Hoskins and Nola are considered untouchable, so depending on how active Klentak is in the free-agent market, the Phillies lineup could look considerably different at the start of next season. I do not, however, want to see Santana at third base.

[zambonir]

I was kidding about 3B. And yes it's more likely Santana sticks around for another year (and I don't think Harper is especially likely either). But anything is possible. If you do keep Bour and move Hoskins back to 1B you have a natural tandem (if not a platoon).

Of course we also might have to adjust our expectations for next season, even if they win the division this year. The Astros missed the playoffs in 2016. And the Braves' young core is much more impressive. If they don't get Machado, next year's team could still have a lot of growing pains (Crawford, Kingery) and streakiness (I doubt Williams is going to hit .300 forever, and of course Franco and Herrera remain inconsistent until proven otherwise. Hoskins is not immune either).

They have so many directions they can go in, depending who they want to keep (most notably Hernandez) and what they do in free agency and trade. In any case, still not seeing a place for 29 year-old Altherr in Philadelphia by 2020, unless Quinn is hurt or Herrera is moved.

[andyb]

Altherr's walk rate went way up this year as did his K rate. Possible the new regime's mandate to work counts messed him up and took away his aggressiveness.

It is pretty easy to see a spot for Altherr. Hoskins to first for some reason. Altherr and Williams in the corners with Herrera or Quinn in CF. Bour is a non-tender. Maybe they move on from Santana. Crawford and Kingery have earned as much playing time as Altherr. It is kind of wide open and Altherr has as much power as anyone but Hoskins and Franco in their mix.

He has had a strange season. People overreact far too much to what he did recently rather than what he has done over a period of years.

[ButlerBulldog]

And yes it's more likely Santana sticks around for another year (and I don't think Harper is especially likely either). But anything is possible. If you do keep Bour and move Hoskins back to 1B you have a natural tandem (if not a platoon).

This combination actually makes a lot of sense, but I just don’t see the Phillies giving up on Santana unless they have to move Hoskins to make room for new acquisitions, and I don’t think Bour would want to stay if it meant playing behind Santana for a full season. In any case, the Phillies’ top priority in free-agency should be Manny Machado. (They also need to find a legitimate closer, as Dominguez would probably benefit from spending a year as a set-up man.) Once Machado is aboard, they can rearrange their other pieces.

I still believe in Kingery despite his struggles—he has a beautiful swing when he squares one up—and I’m hopeful that Franco has finally turned the corner with his improved play in the second half. I wouldn’t mind seeing Kingery platoon with Hernandez to complement a left side of Franco and Machado, with Santana remaining at first. I’d feel better about the outfield if Herrera could finish strong. That doesn’t guarantee he comes back next season, but it might give the Phillies pause about trading him.

Having thought more about Herrera’s situation, I wonder if he’s feeling added pressure because this is the first time he’s been in a pennant race. His first three seasons, the Phillies were one of the worst teams in the National League. This is the first time they’ve had something to play for since 2011, and we can’t know how that’s affecting such a young team. Rollins, Utley, Howard and Victorino were never phased by big moments, but it seemed as though they were always picking one another up. The current group hasn’t had the same chance to gel.

[ButlerBulldog]

People overreact far too much to what he did recently rather than what he has done over a period of years.

In point of fact, what he’s done over the course of his career is exactly the reason why I think his days in Philly are numbered. He played well in 2017, but his other seasons have been marred by injury and inconsistent play. I don’t believe his situation is even remotely comparable to Kingery’s, as while Kingery has also played poorly this season, he has less than one full year of Major League experience, while Altherr has played parts of several seasons and is three years older than Kingery.

Quinn has had similar injury woes, but I’m much more excited about keeping him because of his speed and versatility, which enable him to help the club even when he’s being used sparingly. I don’t know that Altherr can help the team unless he gets regular playing time, which he seems unlikely to receive as long as the current outfield quartet is in place. I do hope he gets some at-bats in September, but I’m not optimistic about his situation.

[zambonir]

Yes Altherr has a weirdly consistent track record of two major injuries (and third minor), two sub-.600 OPS seasons and two .800+ OPS seasons. He could provide any one of those three things next season.

That he does still have talent and value is why I think he could be traded, obviously he's still too good to just non-tender (but Bour, while more limited, might be too. And what about Cozens?)

I like the idea of moving on from Santana even though I like Santana. But this data-driven, emotionless front office is not immune to obligation and ignoring sunk cost. They did not sign him to bench him or trade him in Year 2. That said, if it looks like you could actually trade him for value (modest return, maybe only eat 25% of $) that would just be smart asset management, even if you kept Hoskins in left, since you also got Bour for nothing.

And Bour doesn't get to decide if he wants to stay.

[VoteForKalas]

I highly doubt the Phillies would unload their biggest FA splash in Santana after one season - this is still the Phillies. They've changed in some ways, but PR is still important as we've seen with the handling of Kingery etc.

[allentown]

The biggest FA splash was Arrietta.

[nycphils]

If there is one thing I think you can say about Klentak and how the Phillies have behaved on his watch is that they care about PR in the sense that they say lots of things to protect the feelings of the players, but ultimately they have pretty much done what was needed.

Kingery is a perfect example – when Cabrera was acquired there was lots of talk that Kingery would continue to be at shortstop a fair amount and would continue to play a lot. Obviously that is not what they have done. Lots of happy talk about Neris too, before he was sent to the minors, as another example.

I think that means that, for example, if they can get Harper and improve the team they will worry about what to do with Santana later and ultimately do what needs to be done. Could that mean that Harper plays centerfield for a while? It could, but ultimately if the best alignment for the team is an outfield of Hoskins at 1B with an OF of Herrera, Harper and Williams with Santana on the bench and/or ultimately traded, based on their actions so far I feel confident that that is what they will do.

[Lawman]

If it's any consolation, we're not the only team in the playoff mix w/ offenses that are the picture of inconsistency:

From Matt Gelb:

Since ASB
Cubs: 1115 PA, .307 wOBA, 90 wRC+
Phillies: 1116 PA, .307 wOBA, 90 wRC+

[flyers19rw]

Santana does do well with his OPS due to his 90 walks. Of his 93 hits, 18 have been bombs. Delving deeper into his hitting, problems surface his ratio of PAs to hits is .18, the overwhelming weakest of the starting players.
Herrera- 494/122/.25; Cesar-547/121/.22; Franco-412/108/.260; Hoskins-496/107/.220; Williams-382/92/.24; Kingery-404/85/.21; Alfaro-322/74/.23. Hits do matter and Santana is not having a good year with them. Perhaps its the change in leagues but he needs to do better or else he needs to be replaced.

[VoteForKalas]

The biggest FA splash was Arrietta.

lol, ok, their 2nd biggest FA splash....I think you get my point

[Lawman]

How may of his hits have come when he is hitting RH as opposed to LH?

[ButlerBulldog]

How may of his hits have come when he is hitting RH as opposed to LH?

Sixty-four of his hits have come batting left-handed, while twenty-nine have come batting right-handed.