Discussion - Part Deux

bigegypt0417 2018-10-01 17:33:02 UTC #545

I know there are all these ways of looking at things but the Phillies went from 66 wins to 80 wins...if that's not an improvement then maybe I'm still too old school to understand improvement. They were also the second youngest team in the majors. I'm not sure I can call this season a failure...I can say the last 6 weeks were horrible but in my mind young teams can have that happen.

I know we're in the "sky is falling" time of the off-season...it's going to be a long few months.

allentown 2018-10-01 18:16:04 UTC #546

I think this is true and that if the first and second halves of the season were switched, we'd be quite happy with the year. I think this begs the question of what happened the last month and a half and to move forward the Phillies need to answer that question and fix what went wrong. I take encouragement that things went as well as they did the initial 2/3 of the season. Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a classic logical fallacy, yet the collapse did match fairly closely to the addition of the vets, who also were mainly disappointments on the field.

I do agree with Philsmania that the farm was exposed. The bright spot is international pitchers, but the international starters need to show that they can do it at the MLB level -- actually, first most of them need to show they can continue to perform at the AA and AAA level. Kilome was very well regarded until he reached the upper level of the farm. Thus far our starting rotation is a great college draftee in Nola and guys we acquired in trades from other organizations. Silva needs to get healthy and pitch like he did pre-injury. The other LA pitchers need to continue to do well as they advance up the org.

LoneStarPhan 2018-10-01 18:18:26 UTC #547

I was impressed with Quinn. They really can use his speed and defense. It remains to be seen what they end up doing with Hererra, if anything. He should have some value and I hate to see value lost. I would not be surprised to see another team show interest but there is no way I can judge if there is any interest out there for him. Regardless, they have to have a solid bench with replacements that can step in and play well. While we all hope Quinn can put up a full season, his history has to cause concern.

I'm ready for the winter meetings.

Regarding the way the season ended, it was a collapse like none ever before for a team 15 games over .500 after 113 games played. No team in the history of ML baseball ever collapsed that much from that point.

For those of us that watched and/or listened to many of those games, they not only lost, they looked bad in many areas of play as they did it.

Philsmania 2018-10-01 18:47:34 UTC #548

LoneStarPhan:

Jay_Baller:

Well, good luck getting Roman through the season unscathed.
I was impressed with Quinn. They really can use his speed and defense. It remains to be seen what they end up doing with Hererra, if anything. He should have some value and I hate to see value lost. I would not be surprised to see another team show interest but there is no way I can judge if there is any interest out there for him. Regardless, they have to have a solid bench with replacements that can step in and play well. While we all hope Quinn can put up a full season, his history has to cause concern.

I'm ready for the winter meetings.

Regarding the way the season ended, it was a collapse like none ever before for a team 15 games over .500 after 113 games played. No team in the history of ML baseball ever collapsed that much from that point.

For those of us that watched and/or listened to many of those games, they not only lost, they looked bad in many areas of play as they did it.

The record over the last 51 games matched the record of Tito's 2000 Phillies over the last 51 games but yes, they are the first team in ML history to be at least 15 games over .500 with that many games to play to finish below .500 so an argument can be made that this was qualitatively the worst collapse by a contender in history (though the 1999 Phillies went from 13 games over and leading the wildcard with 54 to play to 8 games under at the finish). And, it was the organization's worst September since 1941, two years before the Carpenters bought the team and gradually built it into a credible organization. So yes, this September was historically bad. Hard to just shake it off as a bump in the road.

mdougherty12 2018-10-01 18:48:19 UTC #549

LoneStarPhan:

Jay_Baller:

Well, good luck getting Roman through the season unscathed.
I was impressed with Quinn. They really can use his speed and defense. It remains to be seen what they end up doing with Hererra, if anything. He should have some value and I hate to see value lost. I would not be surprised to see another team show interest but there is no way I can judge if there is any interest out there for him. Regardless, they have to have a solid bench with replacements that can step in and play well. While we all hope Quinn can put up a full season, his history has to cause concern.

I'm ready for the winter meetings.

Regarding the way the season ended, it was a collapse like none ever before for a team 15 games over .500 after 113 games played. No team in the history of ML baseball ever collapsed that much from that point.

For those of us that watched and/or listened to many of those games, they not only lost, they looked bad in many areas of play as they did it.

The 2018 D-Backs came pretty close, 15 over .500 on the morning of August 24, finished at 82-80

Philsmania 2018-10-01 18:53:16 UTC #550

mdougherty12:

LoneStarPhan:

Jay_Baller:

Well, good luck getting Roman through the season unscathed.
I was impressed with Quinn. They really can use his speed and defense. It remains to be seen what they end up doing with Hererra, if anything. He should have some value and I hate to see value lost. I would not be surprised to see another team show interest but there is no way I can judge if there is any interest out there for him. Regardless, they have to have a solid bench with replacements that can step in and play well. While we all hope Quinn can put up a full season, his history has to cause concern.

I'm ready for the winter meetings.

Regarding the way the season ended, it was a collapse like none ever before for a team 15 games over .500 after 113 games played. No team in the history of ML baseball ever collapsed that much from that point.

For those of us that watched and/or listened to many of those games, they not only lost, they looked bad in many areas of play as they did it.

The 2018 D-Backs came pretty close, 15 over .500 on the morning of August 24, finished at 82-80

They were only a half a game better than us in September, 9-20 to our 8-20. And, we were only a half a game better than the Orioles, 8-20 to their 7-20. The O's didn't have a single month where they reached double figures in wins. Their "best" month was July when they went 9-16.

Austinfan 2018-10-01 19:39:51 UTC #551

Nothing suprising about the farm system, the "jump" was due to RA's trades, most of those players graduated, and the bad drafting from 5 years ago and before was exposed. The strength of the system is A ball and below, but it'll take 2-3 more years for those players to reach the majors and top levels.

Some things take time, Moniak and Gowdy can't be judged for a couple more years (they're paired b/c Gowdy was purchased by drafting Moniak).

Yelich wasn't Yelich until this season, before he was a good contact hitting corner OF with limited power, sound like a recent draft pick?

2011: Quinn, Morgan, Rios [Walding]
2012: Anderson
2013: Crawford, Knapp
2014: Nola, Hoskins, Davis [Leibrandt]
2015: Kingery [L Williams, Falter, Gilbert, Leftwich, Bossart, Pellitier; misses: Randolph #10, Martin #114]
2016: [Moniak, Gowdy, Stobbe, Romero, Irvin, Jul Garcia, Andrew Brown, D Hall, K Young]
2017: [Haseley, Howard, Seabold, Scheiner, Lindlow, Maton, Holmes, Parkinson, Dohy, Listi, D Jones

Actually, the 2016-2017 drafts don't look that bad, a lot of players performing well in the minors, just too far away to know if they're for real. Rule of thumb: 1 starter, 1 solid player (RP, reserve, #5 SP) per draft is a good job.
And we've also found a lot of good LA players the last few years, especially pitchers.
The Lakewood and Clearwater pitching staffs were loaded.

andyb 2018-10-01 19:59:14 UTC #552

The system is a mid-level farm system at the moment. Thin at the top, deeper in pitching at lower levels. But it is not where one would want it after a few years of drafting near the top and getting larger than average international allocations.

Of course the system got better after Amaro's trades. The jury is still out on those but on average the deals have worked out even if guys like Williams and Alfaro do not become stars. Not sure I would point out 2016 as a draft year that is not looking that bad. The draft does not look bad simply because we had a huge allocation for the number one pick in the last year before they lowered that allocation. We had the money to go overslot not just on Gowdy but on Stobbe, Romero, and Irvin. When you have that many $800K+ picks the odds are you hit on some of them. The draft should be considered disappointing if we don't hit on the top guys. The Braves will have hit when they had their chance and we will have missed.

WIth a mid-level system without much immediate help available in 2019 I am not sure waiting and patience would be the way to produce a winner. We really need to make the right choices on the square pegs we have been trying to fit into round holes on the major league advantage. And take advantage of our cash position to get Harper and/or Machado.

Philsmania 2018-10-01 20:50:18 UTC #553

MacPhail's post-mortem press conference will be on phillies.com tomorrow at 2:30.

Philsmania 2018-10-01 21:26:45 UTC #554

Klentak's presser was earlier today.

fish 2018-10-02 14:31:35 UTC #555

Yelich OPS'd over .800 the last 3 years in the majors and every season in the minors but 1. Doesn't sound like any recent draft picks.

allentown 2018-10-02 17:09:53 UTC #556

I think he was .800+ OPS every year in the minors, except the year he basically had only 20 AB and was an MLB player.

Even more to the point, he was in MLB (not just September call-up) at age 21 and put up an .859 OPS at age 24. So, yes, he was Yelich at a very young age.

By comparison: Moniak posted a .687 OPS at CLW this year and a .625 OPS at LKWD last year -- his best OPS being .749 at GCL 2 seasons ago. So, he has never come within 50 OPS points of an .800 OPS in any of his minor league stops. Next year is his age 21 season. This past season was Randolph's age 21 year and he put up a .646 OPS at Reading. Although he had an .866 OPS his rookie season at GCL, his minor league OPS is only .718.

Austinfan 2018-10-02 17:14:20 UTC #557

The point isn't whether our prospects are as good as Yelich (though Howard and Hoskins are both cautionary tales, when they were first drafted I doubt anyone rated them higher than say Martin), but that Yelich made a big jump years after making the majors. Development paths are idiosyncratic.

bigegypt0417 2018-10-02 17:27:33 UTC #558

allentown:

fish:

Yelich OPS'd over .800 the last 3 years in the majors and every season in the minors but 1. Doesn't sound like any recent draft picks.
I think he was .800+ OPS every year in the minors, except the year he basically had only 20 AB and was an MLB player.

Even more to the point, he was in MLB (not just September call-up) at age 21 and put up an .859 OPS at age 24. So, yes, he was Yelich at a very young age.

By comparison: Moniak posted a .687 OPS at CLW this year and a .625 OPS at LKWD last year -- his best OPS being .749 at GCL 2 seasons ago. So, he has never come within 50 OPS points of an .800 OPS in any of his minor league stops. Next year is his age 21 season. This past season was Randolph's age 21 year and he put up a .646 OPS at Reading. Although he had an .866 OPS his rookie season at GCL, his minor league OPS is only .718.

.

Haseley was at .795 and 880 during his brief time at reading.

allentown 2018-10-02 18:23:47 UTC #559

You are absolutely correct. BA's stats are just very off sometimes. You'd think they could get something that simple right.

bigegypt0417 2018-10-02 19:07:51 UTC #560

Agreed!

I normally count on fangraphs...

Philsmania 2018-10-02 21:20:03 UTC #561

Link to McPhail's presser...

allentown 2018-10-03 00:08:42 UTC #562

The fan comments are just brutal, but not all that unexpected I guess, considering how hard prior Phillies announcers and administrations indoctrinated them in the evil of highly paid players being 'too willing to accept a walk' with RISP. They called them out as cowardly sissies. You don't get a walk unless the pitcher throws you 4 balls, which generally means he's not going to giving you a good pitch to hit. So, the hitter either 'accepts' the walk handed to him or he swings at pitches for which his BA and SLG are going to be awful, because he isn't good at hitting those pitches. The fans are all over Santana and the low BA, but in the past they and the announcers were all over Abreu, when he had a great BA and a .400 OBP and hit quite a few HRs. The problem comes when you have several weak bats in the lineup, whom the pitcher would rather face with an extra guy on base than pitch to the better hitter. If the team is going to insist that the good hitters swing at crap to avoid walking, they're going to get more Ks and easy outs from the good hitters. It is on management not to have multiple Kevin Sefciks in the lineup. This season we often had multiple Kevin Sefciks.

On the downside, MacPhail definitely indicated that money is an object, despite what Middleton has said. In reference to the Phillies being among top 5 spenders in golden age, he pointed to the larger attendance back then and at least strongly implied that until attendance rises, we shouldn't expect to see the salary budget pushed that high. He also really downplayed getting one of the top FA, actually looking ahead to the 2019-2020 offseason. He didn't have much more to say about why a young Braves club played well to the end, while a young Phillies club didn't, other than to suggest it was something like an anomaly/normal growing pains for a young team.

Nobody asked him exactly how he expects to ever catch a better Braves team, which also has a stronger farm, if we don't use our $ to expand the budget with FAs. He was to preserve his budget cushion for flexibility.

He's right that we won 14 more games and that this would look a lot better if the bad ending came earlier in the season, but really didn't offer any plan for how the team will improve or cause for significant hope. He did imply that Middleton isn't happy. That's probably the best news out of his presser. It certainly seemed during the past off-season that, without pressure from Middleton to actually spend some FA money, we would not have acquired Arrietta or Santana.

The fans who participated with comments on this presser post seemed to really hate MacPhail, Klentak, Kapler, analytics, low BA (I don't like low BA with below average power either), and walks with RISP.

zambonir 2018-10-03 00:26:58 UTC #563

Hating walks with RISP really is the ultimately straw man, as if the alternative is always a hit, rather than an out. Same goes with strikeouts really, as if the alternative is always good contact, and not just a weak out (or double play).

I will reserve judgment until I watch the video but attendance or no attendance it's not like I think the Phillies should have a Top 5 payroll next season. Some of that money has to be saved not just for future FAs but Nola and Hoskins. It would be just nice if there was a second pitcher or position player we could point to as also needing a nice future payday. If there isn't, they will have to be traded for or acquired as free agents. But if they were to go out and get Harper, Machado, a starter and a closer all at once, they probably would be in trouble if it didn't work/when those players age.

LoneStarPhan 2018-10-03 00:35:16 UTC #564

If they wait to spend until attendance goes back up, they may be in trouble. The decrease in attendance was a result of front office decisions made back when they were still selling out CBP.

Forcing hitters to avoid walks by swing at pitches they likely won’t hit or hit well will drive down their production and doom the team to struggle for mediocrity. Walks are not bad and ultimately should lead to more runs and more wins.

Abreu was one of the best players the Phillies had during the years he was with them. Getting him from the Astros was a great trade. Herrera was a steal in the rule 5 draft and was the Phillies best hitter 2015 to 2017. He hit more home runs this past year but slipped in the field. I did read somewhere that the new defensive managing put him deeper than he normally played in his first 3 years with the team. He has always been prone to bonehead mistakes but had been a solid overall net positive. I would not trade him this off season. We will see what management does.

I remain optimistic for a solid winning record in 2019 but not as confident as I was in early August. I believe this is a critical year for the front office. IF they want to see more phans in CBP with the accompanying revenues from parking, concessions, merchandising, etc., they have to exceed expectation this off season. They need to be active and to make moves that both excite the phans and payoff with wins next season. I expect season ticket sales will go down again so a slow start or a down season will lead to another significant drop in revenue.