Discussion - Part Deux

Austinfan 2018-09-03 22:14:57 UTC #222

Nah, he has them taking the ball the other way, even Santana, which is opposite a "no contact" philosophy.
I think there's just an adjustment, learning to work a count, knowing when to take pitches and when to attack pitches, getting confidence that you can hit with two strikes. It may take a couple years for some young hitters to learn how to hit.

I don't think it's the same for each hitter, obviously Hoskins and Santana and Hernandez have a better feel for the strike zone. With someone like Alfaro, you just want him to stop chasing low breaking balls, Kingery, lay off the pitch outside the K-zone. The idea isn't so much to draw walks (a byproduct, not a goal) but to work a count to get one or two pitches you can handle per PA - but then you have to hit those pitches!

xogfog 2018-09-03 22:15:46 UTC #223

I'm not a fair weather fan, but this way this team is throwing away chance after chance to take this division or even make the playoffs. I don't know how much more I can watch. It is beyond frustrating.

andyb 2018-09-03 22:19:28 UTC #224

There is really not a whole lot of evidence that either Haseley or Moniak will be better than Nick Williams at this point. Or Herrera. Hopefully they'll get better, but it has not happened yet and you are expecting that to happen by 2020 at the major league level? As I said, plugging in players from the depth chart that are not better than our current players does not really make the team better.

Pitching is already decent. It remains to be seen whether any of the young players have significant improvement in them. I would not be shocked to see the Phillies make a run at Patrick Corbin next year because they really need a left-hander. Add Machado and Corbin, then rearrange the deck chairs a bit with trades of players they replace, and you might have the NL East favorites next season.

Austinfan 2018-09-03 22:57:03 UTC #225

We would be a much better team this year if we had depth throughout the lineup, with Altherr, Kingery and Crawford underachieving, we were really thin, then Hernandez got hurt and Herrera got cold and that was all she wrote.

The young pitchers are young, and showing signs of arm fatigue, not so much loss of velocity but loss of command. This is the most they've pitched, especially with ML stress.

Yes, in two years a lot of players will step up, not all, some will step out, but this will be a deeper, more talented team. Then we add Trout in 2021!

I'd be shocked if Machado signed here, and I'd only expect Harper on an overpay.
Philly is not a destination city in any sport, JVR was a former Flyer, Eagles traded for Peters, etc.

flyers19rw 2018-09-03 23:21:44 UTC #226

Yes, the young pitchers are maxing out. However the things that have been killing the team for the last six weeks is poor defense and a lack of hitting. The defense should be repairable. Either they have a glove or they’re gone. ST to work hard on it. Through the minors over the years, most of these players were known as competent defenders. Put them in their best positions so that they can perform.
The lack of hitting is a different issue. What we do know is that it hasn’t been happening this year. The numbers for too many guys are down from last season. What ever bad is going on here, the analytic guys should be able to identify it. Then it’s up to the FO to fix it. Change philosophy; change hitting coach; change the players or a combo of the three. It just can’t carry over to ‘19.

Hags 2018-09-03 23:37:23 UTC #227

Just wanted to add my 2 cents here. Everyday reader, rare poster, frustrated fan. I think they need a new hitting coach / philosophy. They are brutal with 2 strikes. Everyone swings for the fences most of the time. You can attack the first two strikes but IMO you need to look to go up the middle / put the ball in play with solid contact with 2 strikes. How do you ever produce a rally for multiple runs if they have multiple strike outs like they do? You can’t count on home runs every game to carry the offense.

EDmuch 2018-09-04 00:18:37 UTC #228

AF your constant denigration of Philadelphia as a destination is getting old. Not every athlete gets to play in New York.

Austinfan 2018-09-04 00:38:02 UTC #229

No, but the big names get their money where ever they go, so it comes down to where they want to go.
And it's just a lot harder to get the top guys to go to Philadelphia or Cleveland unless there are personal reasons (King James was from there, Trout is from here).

Doesn't mean you can't sign good free agents, but the top guys are a hard sell.
Just look at the Sixers with Simmonds and Embiid, and they couldn't get any of the top stars to even give Philly token consideration.

Face it, if you have $300M, where do you want to live? Malibu or the Jersey shore? Manhattan or downtown Philly? We don't have South Beach, we don't have the gorgeous scenery of the North West, we don't even have SD's weather.

Our best bet is to trade for family men who spend a year or two here, settle in with their families, and decide they want to stay - but even then, the megabuck guys can afford to park their families anywhere and fly home in style.

It's always going to be a hard sell, and a smart GM does his homework and finds out who might be amenable instead of just throwing dollars and raising the price for the second tier guys he has to settle for.

tom81 2018-09-04 00:39:53 UTC #230

I put Hoskins past as ??? for a very good reason because we just can't easily come up with numbers for him both because of his position shift and the fact that this is his first full year in the majors. Just looking at his past offense though I think it not a stretch to say he has under-performed offensively compared with his past. Last year his boWAR was actually 2.1 and since WAR is a counting stat to compare it to this years boWAR you have to multiply it by 550/212 (adjust for the number of plate appearances) and you get 5.45 which is almost twice his number this year. Compare Hoskins' other offensive stats to his numbers going back to his entire professional career and he is far worse than every stop except his first year in A- ball. His wOBA this year is .364 where his lowest except 2014 was .417. wRC+ this year of 129 vs 158.

It is not unusual for players to slump in their second year in the show. I'm hopeful that Hoskins did the same and will put up a wOBA of .400+ and a wRC+ of around 160 next year but it isn't a given. I don't think it was a miss characterization of his year to say he under-performed his potential but I will agree with your point that just citing WAR was not entirely fare to Hoskins as his adjusted bdWAR from last year of -1.04 is not as bad as his -3.0 this year. He is not a good fielding 1B either.

David_Criss 2018-09-04 00:41:39 UTC #231

Eickhoff has been activated and Lively designated. Eickhoff will pitch out of the pen in September. Guessing he takes the Leiter/Thompson role this month. Walding better come up after the playoffs and get his Major League first hit

allentown 2018-09-04 01:00:29 UTC #232

I think AF under-estimates the influence of the Players' Association and the willingness of the star players to do their bit to bump up salaries and prevent owners from continuing to increase or even to maintain their current increased share of the revenue pie. Big deals raise pressure to increase the salary cap in a big increment. Thome felt he had enough money and wanted to stay in Cleveland -- the PA convinced him to take the larger offer from the Phillies. Lee wanted to sign in Philly as a FA -- of course the Phillies had a much better team then and Lee had enjoyed player on that team and for Manuel and his coaches.

zambonir 2018-09-04 01:45:16 UTC #233

If it's really true that Philly is not a destination than you overpay. Just like the Nats did for Werth and Scherzer or the Cardinals did for Holliday. Even Chicago isn't a destination using AF's criteria. That's not to say I'd overpay for old players who aren't going to be good, but of course the Phillies are going to talk with their $$$ this off-season, just like they did to get Santana and the two relievers. Given Harper's age if they miss on Machado and really want him I have no problem with them swimming in that pool.

A little soon to get on the hitting coach after just one season. He's the same hitting coach that had them doing great in April and May. If Franco and Williams are actually any good he gets credit. If Kingery is improving, ditto. If it had been a .500 team all year nobody would care either way.

Anyway, it's somewhat true that poor offense and poor defense is killing them lately; the difference is the pitching was good enough to overcome it until recently. And they made a decision to try and fix the offense (both in the line-up and on the bench). It hasn't worked.

Austinfan 2018-09-04 02:58:25 UTC #234

You can't really overpay top guys anymore, the money is so big it becomes ridiculous, I mean when you're talking $350M plus endorsements, what's another $50M?

The PA has little impact anymore, the top guys live in their own universe, Thome is a lifetime ago.
What will determine the cap isn't free agency signings but revenue growth.

There's a huge chasm between Machado and the run of the mill free agent, between $350 to $400 million and $75 to $90 million.

And that's why destination matters, for the Phillies, the best bet is trading for young rising players, have them spend a couple years in Philly and the ones that like it will be happy to take market value to stay. But the marquee free agents, unless they have a family attachment to the area, are going to go to greener pastures, so don't be foolish and think you can change their minds.

zambonir 2018-09-04 03:55:58 UTC #235

So which is it?

Austinfan 2018-09-04 12:02:54 UTC #236

Harper is not going to get megabucks, and he's probably going to go for the money because he's going to feel "underpaid" (ego comes into play).
Machado is looking at one of the largest contracts in MLB history, so I doubt money will make his decision.

The first hundred million has more value than the next hundred million, at that point, it's play money.

Florida_Sunshine 2018-09-04 12:37:04 UTC #237

I think that is the correct way to look at what Austin posted. What he did is by no means a COMPLETED roster, but him saying what our base is. I think it is a good base. And then like you and Austin both have said, make additions and what we will have should be pretty good.

It is just hard getting through this season as it is getting ugly. Let's hope the last 2 months don't tarnish all the good they accomplished until they got into August.

Lawman 2018-09-04 12:59:54 UTC #238

I just saw a report that Joe Jordan, Phillies' farm director, is not returning for next year.

andyb 2018-09-04 13:18:05 UTC #239

AF's flawed assumption is that simply listing the depth chart and "building from within" is all a team needs to do to win. I just look at our farm system and see depth but few stars. Compounded by the fact that we seem to have had a run of pretty underwhelming top 10 picks the last few years. One can see "development" from all these draftees (Randolph, Moniak, Haseley, Bohm) but I see players that have underperformed their draft slot.

Teams win with stars and above average starters. Other than Sixto who is a major injury question mark, tell me whether we have an above average number of minor league prospects that project as above average regulars or third starters or better. BA just ranked our farm system 18th. We just apparently let go of our farm director. Is that a system where a team with $100 million to spend next year should essentially stand pat? That is mostly what AF is advocating for and it probably will produce a run of .500 teams.

Sometimes you need to spend money and/or prospects to get stars. Especially when it looks like you have a bunch of 4th OFs and back of the rotation starters in your system.

Florida_Sunshine 2018-09-04 13:37:06 UTC #240

Andy,

You missed part of his post and it is an important one.

2020 lineup (before FAs):

That pretty clearly indicates that his post was just a base and that it can be augmented.

None of us control that, it is way above our pay grade.

So, it is a good post by Austin. Not sure why you have to always find flaw in what Austin writes.

If we were to do as you suggested (I think it was you) and add a Trout, Harper or Machado and insert him next to one of our recently graduated "stars" from the farm, I think that has the makings of a pretty good lineup.

Pitching just needs time to mature and we have the money, if needed, to improve in that direction. But, at some point, money is limited so lets hope we only need to spend it on position players.

andyb 2018-09-04 14:13:01 UTC #241

Except he never advocates signing any decent free agents. And there is the implicit assumption that the players he is listing, simply because they are on the depth chart, are actually good.

So maybe he technically leaves room with the before FA caveat. But there is no real analysis here as to what the team should do so one must assume that he is saying that the players he is listing are good enough to win with. If that is not the case he should then say which ones are not. Just listing them tells people nothing.

He lists 6 OFs for instance. Nice to list 6. But all of them project as below average starters at this point. Williams and Quinn are the best but have their flaws (defense and health). Nobody else projects as an above average starter. Why would we expect Pujols to be any better than Cozens? Why do we think Haseley and Moniak are better than 4th OFs? Right now most professionals do not think they will be better than that. Certainly not above average starters. Yes there is safety in numbers, but just about every team has similar performers in the minors. By simply listing the depth chart and making no free agent suggestions he is saying very little and one can assume that he recommends no major free agent signings.