Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion - Part Deux

[Philsmania]

I just saw a report that Joe Jordan, Phillies' farm director, is not returning for next year.

Sources: Phillies farm director Joe Jordan won't return in...

I don't pay for The Athletic so I cannot read the article but in recent years, as Phillies have struggled mightily in developing future stars--plenty of future MLers but precious few top shelf players, aside from Nola--many of us have debated whether the problem is with the scouting which drafts and signs the players or the player development people who develop the players the scouting people draft and sign. I guess they decided it's the player development people.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Come on Andy, you just proved my point above, you are way too personal with everything Austin posts.

I think there are a lot of us here that enjoy the point, counterpoint, the ying and the yang, without the constant put downs.

But, to your post, there is no implicit assumption at all, it is just a post showing our base.

And to say he doesn't technically leave room for free agents, he actually says prior to FA in his post. He doesn't have to list them now, as we all know who they are. And then you make the jump by putting words in his mouth with "By simply listing the depth chart and making no free agent suggestions he is saying very little and one can assume that he recommends no major free agent signings". Quite a reach there Andy!!!

He lists 6 OF's to show depth. He doesn't say any will be stars. He doesn't need to nor did he want to. You are reading way too much into his every post and acting like his opinion is unworthy. That is not good.

If you take what he posted, and I really like what it shows, and supplement with a couple of trades or free agent signings, it does show we have some decent depth percolating up for our own use or trade. That is all he was showing.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Lets add Hoskins to our list. Hard not to think the guy is not upper tier if you look at his stats over his first 162 games in the show. Plus we have some guys in the bullpen that have developed well. Undoubtedly, we need more pieces.

[Philsmania]

Lets add Hoskins to our list. Hard not to think the guy is not upper tier if you look at his stats over his first 162 games in the show. Plus we have some guys in the bullpen that have developed well. Undoubtedly, we need more pieces.

Eh, not sold on him yet but I've never been a fan of one-dimensional slugger types.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Not sold on him as a superstar or an above average and important piece moving forward?

[Philsmania]

Not sold on him as a superstar or an above average and important piece moving forward?

I see him as a poor man's Howard (good years) or maybe even a poor man's Burrell.

[ButlerBulldog]

Not sold on him as a superstar or an above average and important piece moving forward?

I’m sold on him as an important part of this team. What I question is whether he’ll be this team’s Ryan Howard or its Pat Burrell. Either makes the team better, but one is an MVP, while the other is a borderline All Star. If Hoskins is Howard, the Phillies can build around him. If he’s Burrell, they’ll need to find someone better whom he can protect.

In any case, Hoskins is more valuable to this team at first base than in left field. Hopefully, he’ll be back at his natural position in 2019.

Edit: Philsmania beat me to it.

[andyb]

But, to your post, there is no implicit assumption at all, it is just a post showing our base.

But it just lists names. It makes no attempt to say if any of them are any good. So I guess it is just a waste of space. I actually look at those names and see a bunch of below average performers. He posts these lists all the time and they either have no thesis or they are used to show great depth. They actually don't show great depth though if the performers do not project to be that good. Mediocrity is not depth. And since these posts have been used to suggest we should not sign free agents and we should not trade top prospects - it is hard not to read behind the lines when there is no clear thesis stated.

[Philsmania]

Been in the Dakotas [beautiful land and scenery] for a week and have been digesting and contemplating the many moves the Phils have been making over the past month and a couple of days with interest and I still believe the Phils missed a golden opportunity [different than a blown opportunity, they didn't blow it, they missed out in my mind] when they allowed first Machado, and then Hamels to slip from their grasp at the late July deadlines and are likely to miss the playoffs as a result.

It is my opinion that had they the wherewithal to bring in these two players, all the other moves...throwing gum on a wall and wondering which ones stick..would not have needed to be made and the Cabreras, Bours, Bautistas and the lefty relievers brought in would have been unnecessary. And I believe making those two moves would have at worst brought them a division title and at best a World Series berth.

Machado was almost the perfect addition...a guy that is a true superstar and precisely the same age [26] as most of the Phillie players he might have bonded with during these crucial August/Sept playoff deciding months. He would have solidified the infield, allowing Kingery to move back to 2nd where he belongs, and been that wonderful middle of the order hitter the Phils seem to have trouble locating.

I understand I am in a distinct minority here, but I would have bit the bullet and dealt Sanchez for MM, he is not only that good, but I have a real skepticism about hurlers making it intact from A ball to the starting rotation on a big league club. Sanchez's arm woes this year speak loudly to my skepticism. Yes, he may someday become a second coming of Pedro Martinez. Perhaps. But I think he has an equal chance of becoming another Tyler Green, a can't miss top of the line hurler who somehow did miss.

Hamels was practically begging the Phils to bring him in and even with his reduced effectiveness this season before coming to the Cubs, this seemed like a move likely to help the Phils. One, he is a lefty, and in Philadelphia a lefty starter is harder to find than Gene Mauch's name on the Phillie Wall of Fame. Two, he would have brought tons of playoff credibility to a team rotation that well have benefited from it...not to mention the benefits of a six man rotation. Three, he loves and understands Philadelphia and how much winning speaks to the psyche of the Phillie phan.

One thing lacking this year is that playoff passion with the phans and I suspect its that nagging doubt in the phans minds that the leadership truly believes in this team. I know I feel this doubt, Bringing in Machado and Hamels would have answered that doubt in a big way.

I am not in Philadelphia but as a Phillie phan I admit I feel somewhat cheated by Matt K and Co. There are so few opportunities to win in sport and I believe that opportunity was there this season and Matt K whiffed in not trying harder to get Manny and Cole. They were there for the taking, and no, Manny's agent had nothing to do with his coming to LA, not one bit. He is an East Coast guy, loves the East Coast and would have loved Philadelphia. And the city would have loved him. As they do Cole.

I get that many still believe the Phils will sign Manny in the off season and Hamels may well end his career in Philadelphia. Perhaps. But I think the Phils lacked the vision and decisiveness that marks true winners and its not surprising to me that the guys the Phils could have had ended up in LA and Chicago, two teams that seem to have that vision and decisiveness.

Like I said, I understand my view is a minority one and I am not saying the Phils blew it in either case. I simply believe the Phils didn't truly understand how close they were to a potential title and how incredibly exciting Manny and Cole would have made September with their presence.

Seeing how poorly the Phillies are playing at this point makes me doubtful that trading for Machado and Hamels would have made this team a force in the postseason, perhaps helped us to win a very weak division but not go terribly far. I am not feeling wistful about missing Broad Street parade in late next month or early November.

The Cubs and Dodgers also have had much better teams the last few years, too. The NL's last two pennant winners. Phillies need more than Machado and Hamels to get in their league.

[allentown]

I see him as a poor man's Howard (good years) or maybe even a poor man's Burrell.

You damn with faint derision. For too many of us, the more recent memories of post-2011 dominate the memories of Howard through 2011. That Howard was a great slugger, the best through that point in his career in the history of baseball, not just Phillies baseball. I'll take a poor man's Howard. Burrell had that one awful season when he just signed that big contract. Apart from that he was clearly a plus player. He should have been a 1B. He never really was an OF.

What I'm not sold on with Hoskins is that he's an OF or can learn to become an OF. Like Burrell, he was shunted to LF out of team necessity.

I find our current management to have some bizarre quirks. We hear that Crawford isn't an adequate defensive SS and Hoskins isn't an adequate defensive 1B. An yet, they'll happily play Cabrera or Kingery at SS, while announcing that defense doesn't matter as much as it used to and while Santana also isn't a plus defensive 1B. I watched Hoskins play 1B in the minors. He'll not win a gold glove, but he's better than Howard was.

I am sold on most modern stats. I am not sold on our embryonic stats department. When you read about the stats department trying to come up with a model that curve fits Fuld's gut, it has to give pause. At least IMHO.

I think AF is being less rigidly didactic than andyb is portraying. He does leave the door open for Harper. Harper won't be cheap. Machado likely is worth two Harpers and unlikely to cost two Harpers, so I think he is the better deal. I'm thinking Harper gets $200 million and Machado gets $375 million. We'll see. I think Andyb definitely is correct that we don't have the talent on the farm to push this team over the top with just mid-level FA additions.

Very interesting about Jordan. My current inclination has been to trust Jordan more than the stats people, who seem very faddy and new to the game. I think years until our stats crew is on a par with those of the better teams. Everyone hits for loft! I really don't believe that should be the case. We didn't draft #1 picks because they were likely to excel at hitting for loft. We have had a number of guys who are, but they were later round picks. If we wanted HRs we made 3 bad first round picks: square peg/round hole.

[allentown]

But it just lists names. It makes no attempt to say if any of them are any good.

True. I don't think anyone can say that any of the position players looks like a future star. Among the pitchers, the best guy is hurt.

[zambonir]

I am sold on most modern stats. I am not sold on our embryonic stats department. When you read about the stats department trying to come up with a model that curve fits Fuld's gut, it has to give pause. At least IMHO.

That article didn't bother me. When Charlie went with his "gut" he was literally going with his gut. He wasn't looking at statistical analysis (beyond maybe head-to-head match-ups or a guy being hot for a week), let alone spray charts. Fuld is using all the information he has available and then making a human decision based on both that information and his interpretation of it, which is what we should want every time: for both information streams to be utilized.

Now, if it turns out that Fuld's positioning has led to numerous hits compared to what the charts says, he needs to learn from that (or someone else needs to be making the calls). But he's only doing that for OF positioning, not IF, which is where most of the shift problems have been. And with this OF you almost certainly need someone to factor in Rhys Hoskins range or Odubel Herrera's trouble reading balls in a way that the data can't capture. Especially not short-term data (and that's all we have on Hoskins).

[allentown]

It's one thing to have a coach position the OF by gut. It is quite another for a stats department to not work from actual data, but to massage their model to match the coach's gut. That is not stats, that is -- for good or bad-- simply relying on the age-old approach of the coaches positioning the OFs with a gloss of non-stats-based analysis. It's saying "Look! We've broken into the 21st Century Stats Revolution!, when actually not a thing has changed. That's the problem I see.

It's like the recent PECOTA draft, where the stats department simply pulled out a copy of an amateur analyst's rankings. Nice that we've got a broader reading list, but far from PHILS being this great, home-grown stats system. There may be other analytical areas where our new R&D/stats department is making a contribution, but thus far I've seen no evidence of any positive contribution.

[California_Dreamin]

Frankly, this news about Jordan leaving the Phillies has me conflicted. On the one hand, I cannot help but think this has a sort of Mike Arbuckle feel to it...when one of the architects of the 2008 World Championship felt marginalized he left, and I think it hurt the Phils after he departed. I couldn't help but enjoy Jordan's sunshine outlook on each player he was developing, it oft times made me feel better during that dark period of 2012-2017. I will miss that.

OTOH, I also often felt I was listening to Baghdad Bob when he would wax poetically about players like Randolph being "right where we want him to be developmentally" when almost everyone one of us saw a prospect who was floundering badly and seemed like a failed prospect.

I also found it quite revealing [surprised it has never come up on this site] that last week, Mr. Moniak, the father of the Phils former #1 pick, commented on PhuturePhillies that his son's resurgence coincided with his decision to go back to hitting the way he did in HS and basically began to ignore the way the Phils were attempting to have him hit. I thought this was significant and a at least subtle swipe at Jordan and his developmental instruction.

I also can't help but wonder if this in a tiny way might influence Machado's final decision, if all other things are equal. Jordan drafted MM and made a point of saying that he often had dinner with Machado when they were in town together. I understand money talks but if Jordan starts privately badmouthing the new Phillie Way it can't help in the negotiations.

I mentioned in an earlier post that I found this Phillie team hard to like, regardless of their record. I have not changed my mind. I will forever believe they could have had MM if they had offered Sanchez [and I still think its just as likely that Medina will be a stalwart starter in Philadelphia as it is Sixto] and I continue to believe that had they gone the extra mile for MM, they would be leading the NL East.

Machado would have solidified the infield defense, allowed Kingery to move back to 2nd base, nullified the need for the Cabrera's, Bautisita's and Bour's, and made everyone in the then young Phillie lineup better by grabbing that #3 spot in the batting order and keeping in nightly.

I also believe the Phils would have had a better chance to sign him off season if he were at least somewhat familiar with the city and players. It is silly to suggest that his presence hasn't affected the Dodgers record because it has. Without him the Dodgers would likely be about 2-3 games worse and he is easily the best player on a talented but flawed Dodger team.

I would love to have that 2-3 games added to the Phillies record.

[zambonir]

Actually that Moniak tidbit sounds more like a swipe at Klentak and would explain the rift. Jordan was not the agent of change.

[California_Dreamin]

zambonir...you could be right. In any event, it seems like we are once again entering an off season of uncertainty. Not good.

[Austinfan]

I think under Jordan an awful lot of prospects under performed, and I wonder if one reason so many bounced back this year is that Klentak started putting his people into the system, circumventing Jordan - and that would explain the rift.

Notice the system bounced up when RA and then Klentak went out and traded for other team's prospects, not internally - now that those prospects have graduated, the system is back in the middle of the pack.

Williams in the majors is a more disciplined hitter than Williams in the minors, usually it's the other way around. I wonder if Klentak got feedback from his ML coaches about young players not being properly coached?

[Philsmania]

I wonder if Klentak got feedback from his ML coaches about young players not being properly coached?

As I said on another thread, the opposite appeared to be true with Nola. He breezed through the system, enjoyed modest success upon reaching the Phillies but then stumbled badly after McClure tried tinkering with him. Went back to his old self after 2016 and the rest is history.

[julio]

I wonder if Klentak got feedback from his ML coaches about young players not being properly coached?

As I said on another thread, the opposite appeared to be true with Nola. He breezed through the system, enjoyed modest success upon reaching the Phillies but then stumbled badly after McClure tried tinkering with him. Went back to his old self after 2016 and the rest is history.

Developmental coaching of pitchers vs. coaching of hitters?

[allentown]

I also found it quite revealing [surprised it has never come up on this site] that last week, Mr. Moniak, the father of the Phils former #1 pick, commented on PhuturePhillies that his son's resurgence coincided with his decision to go back to hitting the way he did in HS and basically began to ignore the way the Phils were attempting to have him hit. I thought this was significant and a at least subtle swipe at Jordan and his developmental instruction.

I also can't help but wonder if this in a tiny way might influence Machado's final decision, if all other things are equal. Jordan drafted MM and made a point of saying that he often had dinner with Machado when they were in town together. I understand money talks but if Jordan starts privately badmouthing the new Phillie Way it can't help in the negotiations.

I mentioned in an earlier post that I found this Phillie team hard to like, regardless of their record. I have not changed my mind. I will forever believe they could have had MM if they had offered Sanchez [and I still think its just as likel

I think that is Klentak and his novice stats crew who are pushing a one-size-fits-all in which hitters are to be trained to swing for loft. IMHO that is the wrong approach for contact hitters with a strong hit tool and there is simply no way Moniak is going be turned into a HR hitter without sacrificing a lot. Ditto for Crawford and Kingery. Randolph is a tougher case, in that he lacked the foot speed and defensive ability to be even an average MLB player without more power than he showed when drafted. Still, he had a reasonably good GCL season in his draft year, before the instructional staff messed with him. Perhaps he also should go back to his H.S. approach. He had a high BA with a very high walk rate and OBP. He also had more than 1 XBH/10 AB, a number he hasn't matched since his rookie GCL season. Maybe there is something thee and the best we can expect is the useful player we drafted, rather than the broken down and rebuilt guy our novice stats guys imagine he can be.

It's great to teach guys like Hall, Hoskins, and Green to be better HR hitters, but not everyone can or should be a HR hitter.