Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion - Part Deux

[ButlerBulldog]

Bottom line seems to be this: If you need a better-hittin outfielder... sign one. Don't sign a first baseman instead, and expect your first baseman to morph into a left fielder.

Agreed. The Phillies made a mistake signing someone who plays a position at which they already had a capable everyday player. It’s not Hoskins fault he’s been misused defensively, nor is it his fault he’s spent most of the year hitting higher in the order than he’s apparently comfortable. If anything, he deserves praise for his unselfishness, as he’s done everything the Phillies have asked without complaint.

[julio]

In retrospect, a couple of decisions by the front office appear to have been errors:

1. The long-term contract to Scott Kingery. This is not because Kingery doesn't have long-term value (he probably does), but because it was premature. Kingery would have been better-served to open 2017 in AAA, and challenged to force his way onto the 25-man roster. But the contract created an incentive to put him on the active roster, and keep him there - and in the lineup - regardless of his performance. Now, this may work out long-term (consider Mike Schmidt's 1972 season), but it's far too soon to assume that. Also... Kingery is a 2B - a position where the Phillies have an established, productive player (well, prior to the foot injury). So the contract, which landed Kingery on the roster, also led to his playing basically out-of-position. At the same time, the Phillies' shortstop prospect, JP Crawford (a position where we have a real need) was sent to AAA, and expected to force his way into the lineup - don't want to just 'hand him the position." Why the disparity in approach?

2. The Santana signing. Santana has in fact regressed - not really surprising, given his age. His defense isn't what we expected, and his offense (OBP excepted) has been sub-par for a 1B. Moreover, signing Santana has forced Rhys Hoskins to left field, where he's just not adequate defensively (and I'm not talking errors here, but range/plays made/plays not made).

[ButlerBulldog]

In retrospect, a couple of decisions by the front office appear to have been errors:

The long-term contract to Scott Kingery. This is not because Kingery doesn't have long-term value (he probably does), but because it was premature. Kingery would have been better-served to open 2017 in AAA, and challenged to force his way onto the 25-man roster. But the contract created an incentive to put him on the active roster, and keep him there - and in the lineup - regardless of his performance. Now, this may work out long-term (consider Mike Schmidt's 1972 season), but it's far too soon to assume that. Also... Kingery is a 2B - a position where the Phillies have an established, productive player (well, prior to the foot injury). So the contract, which landed Kingery on the roster, also led to his playing basically out-of-position. At the same time, the Phillies' shortstop prospect, JP Crawford (a position where we have a real need) was sent to AAA, and expected to force his way into the lineup - don't want to just 'hand him the position." Why the disparity in approach?

I’ve wondered about this, as well. I didn’t have a problem with the Phillies promoting Kingery based on what he did in Spring Training, but I wonder about the wisdom of signing him to a long-term deal before he’d played a single regular season game. I think the Phillies would have been better off had they started the season using Kingery as a supersub (as they are now) rather than as the starting shortstop. Kingery has a bright future, but he’s not yet an everyday player.

The Santana signing. Santana has in fact regressed - not really surprising, given his age. His defense isn't what we expected, and his offense (OBP excepted) has been sub-par for a 1B. Moreover, signing Santana has forced Rhys Hoskins to left field, where he's just not adequate defensively (and I'm not talking errors here, but range/plays made/plays not made).

See my previous post.

[flyers19rw]

I would like to give a shout out to the phans and Rhys about his move to LF. He has never complained about it and given it his best shot. I think that the phans appreciate his effort out there and are loathe to be critical of him when he comes up short. Good on both for this.

[phillychuck]

And the September (and late August) swoon is something that absolutely should be anticipated with a young team, especially a team with young starting pitching. As the sainted Earl Weaver used to say, "Young pitchers will break your heart." You just had to expect Pivetta, Eflin, Velasquez, and even Nola to regress significantly as a group with all the innings they're pitching, and Seranthony has been way over-used for a very young reliever. The pitching has taken the expected step back, and some of the young offensive players have not performed up to expectation, especially Altherr, Crawford, Kingery, and the second-half Herrera and Hernandez (probably due to injury).

I'd expect the offense to recover some next season, and a star in the middle of the order (Machado?) might help to take pressure off of the young guys.

Personally, I though Arrieta would be better than he has been, too. And I thought he'd be more of a stand-up guy and a staff leader.

[ButlerBulldog]

I would like to give a shout out to the phans and Rhys about his move to LF. He has never complained about it and given it his best shot. I think that the phans appreciate his effort out there and are loathe to be critical of him when he comes up short. Good on both for this.

Agreed. I also want to be clear that I don’t blame Santana for the displacement of Hoskins. He wasn’t wrong for wanting to play in Philadelphia; the Phillies were wrong to sign him. Whatever happens with Santana going forward, I wish him the very best. He hasn’t performed up to expectations (to this point), but he’s not at fault for the poor decision-making of the Phillies’ front office.

[andyb]

I know lineup order does not matter that much, but I wonder if this team should have just installed Hoskins at the number 3 spot in the order and then had some combination of Hernandez, Santana, and later Quinn batting first and second.

One of our issues has been knocking in runs. And we do have other high OBP guys beyond Hoskins. Slotting Hoskins behind the high OBP players might have let this offense operate a little bit better. An issue with this team has been a little bit the lack of 3-4 hitters. We either have had high OBP guys in those spots that do not get enough hits, or lower OBP guys (like Williams and Franco and Herrera) who really don't belong in the 3-4 spots.

For now I might go with a Quinn/Hernandez, Santana, Hoskins, Ramos, Williams, Cabrera 1-6 order. Then think about whether we need a major piece in the order for next season to complement Hoskins (Harper or Machado).

[allentown]

I don't share your fascination with Listi. An .832 OPS for a 24-year-old 1B at Reading is nothing remotely special. We've had vastly better Reading seasons turned in recently. Four of his Reading teammates put up a better OPS. The best is Green. If you want a good offensive Reading player to play 1B for Allentown, look to Green, who is a few months younger than Listi and has an OPS over 100 points higher. That is a respectable showing among the other recent Reading sluggers. I think Green should be strongly considered for the 40-man, not written off as a free agent.

think Randolph should repeat Reading.

If he remains Phillies property, Walding plays 3B -- if not another AAAA guy signed as a minor league FA.

[Austinfan]

I don't think Klentak saw this as a contender this year, Santana was brought in as much as a mentor, both as a veteran Latino player and as a hitter with great plate discipline. I think Ramos will be resigned if they feel he can play that role for Alfaro and Grullon (2yr, $20M deal would be nice). They're focused on both winning and player development.

If Hoskins lacks the instincts for LF (he's a good enough athlete to make it work, not Golden Glove work, but average defensively) then they'll have to trade Santana (and even better reason to resign Ramos).

Arrieta didn't surprise me, I argued last winter that he wasn't worth the big money people were throwing around, and Klentak was smart to hold out until he could get him at a reasonable cost. He's gonna give them 3.5 or so WAR this year and 2-3 WAR the next two seasons, most likely. He just isn't a #1 or even a #2 anymore, more of an upgrade over a healthy Eickhoff. But good veteran depth while the kids grow up.

SD, Ramos and Arano are a nice foundation for a bullpen, Davis has flashed promise, Neris seems to be back in form, and Neshak, Hunter, Morgan are nice depth. Garcia has never pitched up to his stuff and they may move on this offseason with Rios ready to replace him. Avilan may get a shot at a LOOGY, I think Loup is history.

[Philsmania]

The problem with Santana is that other GM's are not stupid. They know Klentak painted himself into a corner with the Santana signing. Santana is owed roughly $41 million over the next two years and getting himy off our hands will probably cost between $20 and $30 million unless we take someone else's bad contracts off their hands. Ouch. Middletown is a very rich man but a good businessman and I doubt urinating away that much money will sit well with him.

[Austinfan]

Listi has jumped from WIlliamsport to Reading in a year and a half, that's rapid progress for any prospect.
He lost a year in college trying out for the Seals, so the age thing is a bit misleading.

Interesting adjustment in Reading
June/July 10 BB 38 K
August 15 BB 12 K

I don't know if he's a real prospect yet, but I think they'll push him and find out (at his age, why be patient?).

[Austinfan]

He wanted them to spend money, Klentak spent the money, Santana helped this team stay in contention.
I don't think Middleton will care if they eat some money moving him back to the AL, if he's talking Harper and Machado, Santana's buyout is pocket change that frees up money for other free agents.

I think you could throw in $10M and move him - 2 years, $30M is far more palatable than 3 years, $60M.

[allentown]

Santana actually had a good August, although his July stank. In general for the year, more erratic, less power, less D compared to expectation. We'll see if the good August carries through September.

[zambonir]

Obviously they were wrong about some things - they thought Hoskins wouldn't be as bad as he was. They thought Santana would be better on both sides of the ball, even with some regression. And they thought Kingery would thrive as a Ben Zobrist type player. Instead they needed a SS (and didn't need a 3B for a while) and he was also far worse than anyone expected in spring training (when the calls to just trade Hernandez were pretty loud).

Young players get better but they also fail, or go up and down. And really it's the Phillies' older players - Herrera, Hernandez, Franco, Santana - who are the bigger part of the offensive swoon.

I would dispute that anyone has ever said the timetable was 2020 though. That might be the year they can actually win a World Series and it still is, but Gillick said 2018 when he took over, and later revised that to 2019 (he said this as recently as this past spring). Which we all know is also the big free agent year. Getting Arrieta a year early in a soft market was good; getting Santana, maybe not.

Before this season started we also talked a lot about how the shifts and the analytics and having a bunch of new stuff to learn and keep in their heads would likely lead to a lot of growing pains. And they have, but since the team was winning, it wasn't a concern. Question is will they come back next year and be better, or does the system need to change? Or do they just need better players for the system?

[Austinfan]

I've always thought it was 2020 to be a real contender (90 plus wins on a regular basis), now Gillick may have thought in terms of 85-90 wins, when you're a wild card contender and can win the division in a weak year (no one expected the Nats to go belly up).

When you bring in a lot of young players quickly, unless you get really lucky like the Braves, where you have multiple top prospects all arrive quickly, you go through growing pains, some shine like Rhys, some go up and down and up again like Franco, some have a delayed ETA like Kingery, Alfaro and Crawford, and some just slip and fall (Altherr). It's both a matter of player development and player self-selection (some fail and signal they need to be replaced).

2020 lineup (before FAs):
C Alfaro, Grullon, Knapp (jack of all trades, he's playing 3B at Lehigh)
1B Hoskins (Listi/Cozens as 1B/OF?)
2B Kingery
SS Crawford
3B Franco
LF Williams, Randolph
CF Moniak, Quinn
RF Haseley, Pujols
The lack of depth is IF, none of the LA prospects will probably be past Lehigh or Reading by the end of the 2020 season.

Pitching is where this team will be very deep, and I see multiple pitchers traded for position depth:
SP: Nola, Eflin, Velasquz, Pivetta, Arrieta [Eickhoff, Lively], De Los Santos, Irvin, Suarez, Romero, Seabold, S Sanchez, Medina
RP: Neris, SD, Arano, Ramos, Rios, Davis, Anderson, Gilbert, Singer, McGarry, E Garcia, Dohy, Hammer, Tirado

[andyb]

Problem with all that lineup is that it is probably not a better team substantially than the one we have.

There is no reason this team cannot compete today, in 2019, and in 2020. Plug in Machado or Harper and make a trade or two to plug some holes and things can improve immensely. Just penciling in Haseley and Pujols and Moniak do not really make the team better when at the moment they have not shown they project to be much more than 4th OFs. Lots can change on the pitching end as well in terms of injuries. Sixto and Medina will hopefully stay healthy and progress. But that is probably a huge IF.

Listing a depth chart really is not a strategy any more. This team has money to spend to plug holes. And lots of second tier prospects that can be packaged for top tier talent. Not much reason there to think Klentak will stand pat. There will be lots of pressure to win next year. Lots of it.

[zambonir]

He will be busy. Two FAs (one big, one mid) and two trades involving current members of the 25 in some combination with prospects is my guess. Add an SP from those. And hopefully keep Ramos.

[EastFallowfield]

Franco hurt his wrist in Toronto, so he's not in the doghouse.

[Austinfan]

I doubt Moniak and Haseley end up as 4th OF types, Randolph is more likely.

The point is they will have a lot of young talent as a base, and young players do improve, not all, but some, and that's all it takes, whether Quinn getting past the injury bug or Pujols continuing to tap into his raw talent, Alfaro learning plate discipline, Franco building on his improvement this season, Kingery on his last month, etc.

The real key is the surplus young pitching, with replacements right behind them in A ball - that allows you to package 3 or 4 players in a major trade, or make TDL trades when needed.

If you have a solid team with depth, you can fill one or two holes in free agency, but if you don't have a solid team to start, no free agent is going to put you over the top.

[flyers19rw]

Is the hitting coach's philosophy an issue? This bunch has too many strikeouts, which kill innings, and not enough hits.