Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[julio]

What kind of package could you get for a guy like Bautista at the deadline and would it have a higher value than a pick? Do you sign him for two years?

Would Bautista be willing to sign for two years? Seems to me that if the QO is limiting his ability to get a multi-year deal, he'd want to sign for one year and hit the market again - without that restriction - next winter. The new CBA stipulates that a player may be QO'ed only once in his career, so if Bautista signs a one-year deal, he's an unrestricted free agent next winter.

[andyb]

Much of the article's reasoning would apply to my wish for them to sign Saunders. He is not as good offensively but he is much younger and presumably has defensive value. The lesser offense means he would cost less and of course he is not tied to a pick.

But there is a real logic to sign a 2-3 year for a corner OF with power when the cost is only money. We certainly have corner OF prospects that might be ready by the end of 2017, but they also might not. Plus any team needs 2 corner OFs and, no offense to Kendrick, but he is a 2B. He'll be passable in LF and better than they put out there last year, but it is not like he is that good. Everyone else (Altherr, Quinn, Geoddel, Williams, Cozens) comes with major questions. Given our salary situation we can easily deal the higher priced player like Saunders if the younger prospects mature. All in all it is a nice problem to have. We don't sign a Saunders to flip. We sign a Saunders to play now. But if we end up flipping him later it is about the only way now to use money (which we have) to acquire prospects (which we still want).

[andyb]

Would Bautista be willing to sign for two years? Seems to me that if the QO is limiting his ability to get a multi-year deal, he'd want to sign for one year and hit the market again - without that restriction - next winter.

Given his age though I think if Bautista signs for a huge discount on a 1-year deal it would have to be for a contender. It is risky for him to count on something better at age 37 as opposed to 36. IMO it is more likely that he bites the bullet and takes the best 2-3 year deal with a team likely to contend. Probably not the Phillies where money is the biggest reason he fits.

[bigegypt0417]

Good point. I forgot about that...

So would you sign him and gamble you can get a package at the deadline?

I wouldn't but I wonder if it would make any sense...

[bkeich]

I know that he isnt a good defender, but if Brandon Moss could be had on a 1 year deal I think he might not be a bad idea. Maybe even a 2 year deal.

LH 1B, so he could get some starts there to give Joseph a breather or against particularly tough right handers.
LH OF, possibly a few starts a week or possibly take a starting spot if Altherr doesnt retain his job.

He would become expendable when Quinn and/or Williams is ready, hopefully be able to trade him for a mid range prospect if you eat the salary.

Stauffer may have filled this spot.

[julio]

So would you sign [Bautista] and gamble you can get a package at the deadline?

Actually, no, I would not. I would be more interested in somebody like Saunders: improvement on the field, deadline trade possibility, no loss of draft pick.

[Austinfan]

This year is sorta about the post-All star game callups.

If it's a good year, Crawford, Cozens and Quinn are playing for the Phillies in August, Alfaro and Hoskins are tearing up the International league, and Lehigh is ten games in front due to a killer pitching staff.

If not, no FA signing for the ML team that wins them 3 more games will keep me from a deep depression!

[allentown]

So would you sign him and gamble you can get a package at the deadline?

No, I wouldn't. I'm willing to gamble that a 30-year old who had an uncharacteristically-poor, injury-riddled season will bounce back the next season. I am not willing to make that bet with a guy whose numbers took a dive at age 35, an age at which many careers go south or have long since gone south. Having lost almost 100 OPS points last year, odds are he loses another 50 this coming season -- and his D stinks. It is much easier for a team in the DH league to take a chance on him. Realistically, even if he has a bit of bounceback, you aren't going to be able to trade him for all that much. It will cost us $20 mill plus our 2nd round pick to sign him. Going forward, using that $20 million to grab a 23+ international player and keeping the second rounder are almost certainly going to be more help than a deadline trade.

Saunders is only $. I'd be willing to do that. Age is also more in our favor there.

[ZardozMD]

Curious what our utility infield looks like next year. Aside from Blanco is anybody really a lock for the bench? Will Kendrick see any time at 2nd? I cant see Shaffer getting much playing time at 3rd.

[julio]

Curious what our utility infield looks like next year. Aside from Blanco is anybody really a lock for the bench? Will Kendrick see any time at 2nd? I cant see Shaffer gating much playing time at 3rd.

In the minors, Shaffer has been predominantly a third baseman - 384 games, as against 38 at first base. If he makes the club, he'll likely get some time at third, spelling Franco (as opposed to Blanco getting those innings). Blanco is your backup middle infielder, Shaffer is your backup corner infielder.

[LoneStarPhan]

...

Curious what our utility infield looks like next year. Aside from Blanco is anybody really a lock for the bench? Will Kendrick see any time at 2nd? I cant see Shaffer gating much playing time at 3rd.

In the minors, Shaffer has been predominantly a third baseman - 384 games, as against 38 at first base. If he makes the club, he'll likely get some time at third, spelling Franco (as opposed to Blanco getting those innings). Blanco is your backup middle infielder, Shaffer is your backup corner infielder.

...and if Shaffer is also able to play the corner outfield positions, he becomes a solid contender for a bench slot.

[zambonir]

But Shaffer is also a righty, not exactly a good fit with Franco and Joseph. I reckon we are still looking at one more LHB signing, be it an OF, 1B or hybrid.

Until we know for sure who the starting RF is it's hard to predict the bench. If Quinn doesn't play every day does he make the bigs or go back to Allentown? Can Shaffer play RF? (But again, if Altherr starts out as the guy there, another righty).

[andyb]

But Shaffer is also a righty, not exactly a good fit with Franco and Joseph. I reckon we are still looking at one more LHB signing, be it an OF, 1B or hybrid.

Until we know for sure who the starting RF is it's hard to predict the bench. If Quinn doesn't play every day does he make the bigs or go back to Allentown? Can Shaffer play RF? (But again, if Altherr starts out as the guy there, another righty).

Agree with that. Shaffer to me is more the AAA backup plan in case Franco or Joseph get hurt. He is not as good as either of them but is at least depth and more ready than Walding. Stassi is also in that backup plan mix and probably has a better shot at the roster (at least today) since he is left handed.

[julio]

But Shaffer is also a righty, not exactly a good fit with Franco and Joseph. I reckon we are still looking at one more LHB signing, be it an OF, 1B or hybrid.

Until we know for sure who the starting RF is it's hard to predict the bench. If Quinn doesn't play every day does he make the bigs or go back to Allentown? Can Shaffer play RF? (But again, if Altherr starts out as the guy there, another righty).

Agree with that. Shaffer to me is more the AAA backup plan in case Franco or Joseph get hurt. He is not as good as either of them but is at least depth and more ready than Walding. Stassi is also in that backup plan mix and probably has a better shot at the roster (at least today) since he is left handed.

Not sure I agree. This analysis is based on the current roster (understandably) - but that roster is still short at least one outfielder (Altherr, Herrera, Kendrick...possibly Quinn, but that's still only four). If they add a reserve outfielder who bats left-handed, then Shaffer as the reserve corner infielder makes sense - more than Stassi, IMHO, because Shaffer can play 3B.

I guess this suggests I'm not convinced that Daniel Nava is going to be that reserve outfielder!

[allentown]

I'm also not convinced that the last two OFs will be Nava and Quinn. It would be good to see somebody step forward in ST. Possibly Goeddel, possibly Williams.

[julio]

I'm also not convinced that the last two OFs will be Nava and Quinn. It would be good to see somebody step forward in ST. Possibly Goeddel, possibly Williams.

I'm not assuming that the current roster (plus NRI) is the universe; I think there's a good chance we'll see additional acquisitions, one way or another, before the 25-man roster is finalized.

[Austinfan]

Right now the five backups are Knapp, Blanco, Stassi, ???, ???.

I figure Stassi makes it as a defensive replacement, LH pinch hitter, and they'll try him in LF to add a LH bat.
Since Kendricks can play 2B, and Blanco SS/3B, and they'll have IFs at Lehigh who can step in, the focus will be on two OFs.
Knapp is the backup catcher unless they add a veteran.

I doubt Quinn or Goeddel will start with the team in April, they will want them in Lehigh getting PT.

Pullin is a long shot but a hot spring could win him a backup job, since they probably don't see him as a future starter they'd be less worried about setting his development back.

Nava, Shaffer are longshots, Nava would have to show he's all the way back, and Shaffer is someone they'd probably prefer to work with in AAA than bury on the bench. Though he did start 25 games in the OF in AAA last year - that's his ticket to stick with the big club.

I see them adding at least one FA OF once the prices go down in FA (i.e. someone is willing to sign a 1-2 year deal).

[zambonir]

If they add a reserve outfielder who bats left-handed, then Shaffer as the reserve corner infielder makes sense - more than Stassi, IMHO, because Shaffer can play 3B.

Blanco started 26 games at 3B last year on a team that still had Asche (not that he was ever considered) as well as Burriss and Paredes. So yeah, the flexibility may have some appeal, but they really don't need another 3B bench guy (so long as Blanco is a bat as well as a glove), and particularly not a RHB.

I agree the whole conversation is premature. Figure 1-2 more guaranteed acquisitions and several more minor league invites.

Agree on Nava too, he's just the first guy they signed. He'll still have to perform in ST. But he's a switch-hitter and has the opt-out so he could easily get first look over someone younger, so long as they also want that younger player getting more ABs in AAA.

I think Quinn is only on the 25-man roster if he's the starting RF.

[julio]

Per Jerry Crasnick, the Phils are signing catcher Bryan Holaday to a minor league contract, with an invitation to spring training (as reported on MLBTR):

Phillies To Sign Bryan Holaday To Minor League Deal...

Crasnick's tweet:

Jerry Crasnick (jcrasnick)

[julio]

Holaday is pretty underwhelming, IMHO. Bad OBP, limited power, apparently average or a little worse defensively. I'm not sure I want him in the reserve role instead of Andrew Knapp - nor in the AAA reserve role instead of Logan Moore.