Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[bkox]

The Phillies have announced that Steve Henderson will not return as hitting coach

[allentown]

The Phillies have announced that Steve Henderson will not return as hitting coach

I have no idea how much of the offense's problems are on him. I think the talent just wasn't good enough. Galvis, Rupp, Jordan, Hernandez: really got more than expected from them and Howard contributed more than expected in the second half. A roller-coaster season for Franco and Herrera. Did we really expect any better from Asche, Bourjos, Ruf, Goeddel, and the other guys who manned the OF corners? When you get pretty much zilch from your OF corners, your offense is bound to be poor.

[saycheese]

Henderson being let go was probably more of inserting a different voice in the room.

[zambonir]

I doubt he will be the only one to go. Pretty sure the whole staff besides the manager is on one-year contracts, always, so there will be more discussions, negotiations and potential changes to come. Some of those moves could be related to moves made at the minor league level too. And remember neither Mackanin nor Klentak truly hired anyone on this coaching staff.

[rbm-de]

**I'm posting this here altho it was composed after the Saturday game and before the win today.

There's something about the other team clinching a postseason berth and doing the happy dancing and spraying champagne on your field that can cause fits of righteous distress, and for the weaker amongst us the chugging of Maalox especially when that other team is the New York Muts. Worse, yes there is worse, which is that team with 2 red birds perched on the ends of a bat doing same.

Meanwhile the Phillies continue the seemingly never ending descent into the baseball abyss. If they should win tomorrow, the season ends 71-91, better than the 2015 log of 63-99, but the differential between runs scored and allowed is almost equal to that of 2015 and after tomorrow may be worse. Looks that in reality my preseason guess of 55-107 really wasn't that far off. Some relief pitching and real hitting are needed for any legit chance of not ending next season @ 54-108. Yes, losing 2/3 of the games.

Phillies ownership talks a great game. (Hi there John Middleton. Where you been all season?) but what we've seen betwixt the foul lines in 2015 and 2016 can get those of us who saw the 1962 Muts (40-120) thinking about which team really had less talent. At least that first Muts team had baseball brains on the field and in management the latter of which was proven beyond doubt in 1969.

I guess in fairness it must be stated that nobody expected Ryan Howard to snap that Achilles tendon in 2011 after signing that megacontract effective with the 2012 season. He's never been anywhere near the pre injury player. Big guys who have that injury rarely play really well again. Nobody expected both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee to almost simultaneously have their bodies wear out beyond pitching repair when they did. Not their faults. MLB level replacements were not anywhere near ready.

One REALLY wonders about the fellows who are there now. Reinforcements particularly bullpen and corner OF are needed now or those of us brave enough to venture forth will next season mostly be able to buy discounted box seats 1/2 hour before game time directly behind the Phillies dugout. Turn off that cellphone during the game if you're sitting there and be sure to bring your glove. It's foul ball territory.

The infield should be OK with Joseph, Hernandez, Galvis and Franco with Blanco as the reserve, and Rupp being the main catcher. BTW, he does bear some resemblance to Clay Dalrymple but with a bat unlike # 11.

Maybe Mackanin might appreciate some help from us peanut galleryites. Seems like he knows baseball and has the support of the players, but we don't know about him as a MLB manager because he lacks MLB talent with which to manage a game.

No Maalox moments here. Nor any resort to strong adult beverages. There are always worse matters. **

[allentown]

It worked in MacPhail's and Klentak's favor to have a bad team in 2016 and to have Gillick extend his predicted date for the team contending. That gives the new management a secure gig for 4-5 years, by lowering expectations, rather than have the fans expect a reasonable level of competitiveness in 2017 and solid contention in 2018. The owners don't mind, more money in their pockets in following the low expectation, slooow rebuild approach. Everyone among TPTB seems happy with the go-slow plan -- not even any urgency to maximize our take of international under-23 talent this year. Over-23 international talent: can't be bothered, who needs them, those guys cost real $ and they raise expectations for management to actually win. rbm-de is correct -- Middleton has gone dark. All of that initial enthusiasm, and urgency, and talk of spending whatever it takes, winning is everything, and now not a word from the guy, as his bank account inflates and contention is pushed another year (or two) into the future.

[zambonir]

Well, Cooney says all the rest of the coaching staff will be back.

buckscountycouriertimes.com/ ... a18d0.html

To me that says another year on the treadmill for sure. I just can't believe Mackanin & Bowa & McLure are meant to be the guys taking this team into the future, which is not to say I think they've done a bad job.

But, the slow rebuild still doesn't bother me. It always seemed crystal clear to me that they would follow the Cubs/Astros model, which is a four-five year plan. The problem is it should have started in 2013, not 2016. Even so, 2018 could be a pleasant surprise. The spending will start then, but being aggressive in 2018 and 2019 goes hand-in-hand with being bad and going slow in 2017.

Part of me wishes the Phillies would just admit they are tanking, just flat-out say (CBA changes permitting) that getting a high pick and/or not losing the first-rounder is an important part of next season while they wait for 50-60% of the future starting line-up to reveal itself (or fail and require free agents/trades). The clarity would be welcome. But even the criticism here shows that wouldn't play well, let alone with the sports-radio crowd (which they already knew from watching the Sixers' experience).

I think a lot of the other stuff will improve in 2017 though. The reality is, wasting 2015 on Gillick/lame-duck Amaro is as much to blame for things as anything. They should have and could have hired a GM during the season if not in the spring. They should have and could have put MacPhail in charge immediately. Instead, we got the mulligan year. But Middleton literally had to wait for people to die and get sick to stage his coup and make those changes. I never believed he was a truly revolutionary figure but I have no problem with him currently - in fact my hat is off to him for letting his people run the team and letting them opt for patience, when I'm sure he would happily sign off on spending and short-term fixes. Same goes for MacPhail who is pretty old-school and was a Monty crony. He is letting his protege do things he himself probably would not.

I get the cynicism, but Epstein presided over three awful Cubs seasons (and 2015 was considered ahead of schedule). Luhnow, same thing (three years, 2015 ahead of schedule, though they stumbled this season obviously). Klentak is probably only going to preside over two.

[allentown]

Well, Cooney says all the rest of the coaching staff will be back.

buckscountycouriertimes.com/ ... a18d0.html

To me that says another year on the treadmill for sure. I just can't believe Mackanin & Bowa & McClure are meant to be the guys taking this team into the future, which is not to say I think they've done a bad job.

But, the slow rebuild still doesn't bother me. It always seemed crystal clear to me that they would follow the Cubs/Astros model, which is a four-five year plan. The problem is it should have started in 2013, not 2016. Even so, 2018 could be a pleasant surprise. The spending will start then, but being aggressive in 2018 and 2019 goes hand-in-hand with being bad and going slow in 2017.

Part of me wishes the Phillies would just admit they are tanking, just flat-out say (CBA changes permitting) that getting a high pick and/or not losing the first-rounder is an important part of next season while they wait for 50-60% of the future starting line-up to reveal itself (or fail and require free agents/trades). The clarity would be welcome. But even the criticism here shows that wouldn't play well, let alone with the sports-radio crowd (which they already knew from watching the Sixers' experience).

I think a lot of the other stuff will improve in 2017 though. The reality is, wasting 2015 on Gillick/lame-duck Amaro is as much to blame for things as anything. They should have and could have hired a GM during the season if not in the spring. They should have and could have put MacPhail in charge immediately. Instead, we got the mulligan year. But Middleton literally had to wait for people to die and get sick to stage his coup and make those changes. I never believed he was a truly revolutionary figure but I have no problem with him currently - in fact my hat is off to him for letting his people run the team and letting them opt for patience, when I'm sure he would happily sign off on spending and short-term fixes. Same goes for MacPhail who is pretty old-school and was a Monty crony. He is letting his protege do things he himself probably would not.

I get the cynicism, but Epstein presided over three awful Cubs seasons (and 2015 was considered ahead of schedule). Luhnow, same thing (three years, 2015 ahead of schedule, though they stumbled this season obviously). Klentak is probably only going to preside over two.

I certainly agree that we shouldn't lose our first rounder (or second, if are draft position is sufficiently primo in the 2018 draft -- all though if that happens it would mean 'the plan' is in retrograde) by signing a comped FA this winter or next. It would be really bad news for the team's development if our draft position were in the top dozen in 2018.

[VoteForKalas]

I hope Middleton & the Bucks are letting their baseball people (MacPhail, Klentak etc.) run the organization and have told them the money is ready to be spent when they have things lined up. That is what I want from ownership: hire/retain the most competent and innovative people you can, make whatever funds they need to do the job well available and stay out of the way. The last thing I want is Middleton or the Bucks being Jerry Jones clones; that would be very bad for the organization. So, I'm fine with ownership "going dark" as long as they have fully authorized MacPhail/Klentak et al. to do what is necessary and will hold them accountable if they fail. That last point is especially important since it was the major weakness of the Monty/Giles group.

Zambonir nails the vital point about why this seems like it is taking so long/going so slowly: we wasted several years playing the PR spin game with Gillick/Amaro and trying to have our cake and eat it too. They wanted to cash in on the last years of the WS core with nary a care about the consequences. It was outrageous then and, as we wish Ryan Howard good luck in his future, its even more inexcusable that we waited so long. Thankfully, other than Middleton, that cohort of owners/managers are gone and I think we have a much better group of baseball savvy folks to lead us into the future.

I'm optimistic about the next few years and continue to hope that building and maintaining a sustainable winner is the primary goal.

[saycheese]

Thinking a little out of the box when Mackanin talks about upgrading the offense. Knowing Klentak will not do anything that hurts the future too much I started to wonder who the Phillies could get. Free Agency is pretty baron. Started looking at some rosters for guys who were in that 29-32 age range that were making decent money that clubs might want to trade off to lower their salary commitment. Not too many of those either but one name that struck me was Andrew McCutchen (hard to believe he is going to be 30 already). He has had a down year by his standards. Even with that his OPS of .766 wasn't terrible, he did hit 24 home runs and rive in 79. His center field defense is not very good at this point in his career. He probably should be playing left field. The Pirates typically trade guys like McCutchen rather than let their contracts run out. He is signed through next year with a team option for 2018. Which fits perfectly for the Phillies, he also is making a shade over 14 mill which really is not an issue for the Phillies at this point. That would give the Phillies more time to groom the Dylan Cozens, Williams, Pullins etc. of the minor league system.

What would we have to give up? That is a tough call, but we have a pretty deep farm system to deal from. We have some young major league players that could interest them. Wondering if anyone else has found someone who would make some sense.

[andyb]

I know everyone hates him, but Ryan Braun is owed $80 million for 4 years which is not too bad coming off a 900 OPS season and the defensive metrics still rate him as average. He'd be a better fit for us if he were left-handed. It is likely he will be dealt at somewhat of a discount this winter if the team that trades for him picks up the entire contract. He seems a pretty good bet to be worth 8-10 WAR over 4 years coming off a 4.4 WAR season.

[bigegypt0417]

I know everyone hates him, but Ryan Braun is owed $80 million for 4 years which is not too bad coming off a 900 OPS season and the defensive metrics still rate him as average. He'd be a better fit for us if he were left-handed. It is likely he will be dealt at somewhat of a discount this winter if the team that trades for him picks up the entire contract. He seems a pretty good bet to be worth 8-10 WAR over 4 years coming off a 4.4 WAR season.

I think if you can get him at a deep enough discount you can still flip him at some point if he's still producing. It's the kind of move the brewers would love to make while also getting a couple of pieces in return...

[Philsmania]

Part of me wishes the Phillies would just admit they are tanking, just flat-out say (CBA changes permitting) that getting a high pick and/or not losing the first-rounder is an important part of next season while they wait for 50-60% of the future starting line-up to reveal itself (or fail and require free agents/trades). The clarity would be welcome. But even the criticism here shows that wouldn't play well, let alone with the sports-radio crowd (which they already knew from watching the Sixers' experience).

I get the cynicism, but Epstein presided over three awful Cubs seasons (and 2015 was considered ahead of schedule). Luhnow, same thing (three years, 2015 ahead of schedule, though they stumbled this season obviously). Klentak is probably only going to preside over two.

The problem is that if some organization comes out and says "Yeah, we're tanking.", you'll probably see the next CBA institute some kind of a lottery. We don't want that.

[saycheese]

I know everyone hates him, but Ryan Braun is owed $80 million for 4 years which is not too bad coming off a 900 OPS season and the defensive metrics still rate him as average. He'd be a better fit for us if he were left-handed. It is likely he will be dealt at somewhat of a discount this winter if the team that trades for him picks up the entire contract. He seems a pretty good bet to be worth 8-10 WAR over 4 years coming off a 4.4 WAR season.

I thought about Braun , But as you said he has 4 yrs at 80 mill plus another 14 mill in deferral money. those years are ages 33-37 would need some serious dollars coming back the Phillies way in order to make this work. Plus Braun owns a full no trade clause so most likely he would want the 2021 year guaranteed. I don't see him as that great of a fit for the Phillies due to the contract and age.

[Philsmania]

Thinking a little out of the box when Mackanin talks about upgrading the offense. Knowing Klentak will not do anything that hurts the future too much I started to wonder who the Phillies could get. Free Agency is pretty baron. Started looking at some rosters for guys who were in that 29-32 age range that were making decent money that clubs might want to trade off to lower their salary commitment. Not too many of those either but one name that struck me was Andrew McCutchen (hard to believe he is going to be 30 already). He has had a down year by his standards. Even with that his OPS of .766 wasn't terrible, he did hit 24 home runs and rive in 79. His center field defense is not very good at this point in his career. He probably should be playing left field. The Pirates typically trade guys like McCutchen rather than let their contracts run out. He is signed through next year with a team option for 2018. Which fits perfectly for the Phillies, he also is making a shade over 14 mill which really is not an issue for the Phillies at this point. That would give the Phillies more time to groom the Dylan Cozens, Williams, Pullins etc. of the minor league system.

What would we have to give up? That is a tough call, but we have a pretty deep farm system to deal from. We have some young major league players that could interest them. Wondering if anyone else has found someone who would make some sense.

I'm wondering the same thing myself. A month or so ago, I suggested Williams, Knapp and Stassi for him and others said that's too much for a salary dump. How about just Knapp (and perhaps Stassi) for McCutcheon? Is that too little to entice the Pirates in a straight-up, contractually lock stock and barrel salary dump? Could they get more for him a straight up salary dump? I see Knapp as a genuine prospect but an expendable one, squeezed between Rupp and Alfaro. What is the chance that both Rupp and Alfaro head south on us? Hence, dealing Knapp might be a good risk.

[saycheese]

Thinking a little out of the box when Mackanin talks about upgrading the offense. Knowing Klentak will not do anything that hurts the future too much I started to wonder who the Phillies could get. Free Agency is pretty baron. Started looking at some rosters for guys who were in that 29-32 age range that were making decent money that clubs might want to trade off to lower their salary commitment. Not too many of those either but one name that struck me was Andrew McCutchen (hard to believe he is going to be 30 already). He has had a down year by his standards. Even with that his OPS of .766 wasn't terrible, he did hit 24 home runs and rive in 79. His center field defense is not very good at this point in his career. He probably should be playing left field. The Pirates typically trade guys like McCutchen rather than let their contracts run out. He is signed through next year with a team option for 2018. Which fits perfectly for the Phillies, he also is making a shade over 14 mill which really is not an issue for the Phillies at this point. That would give the Phillies more time to groom the Dylan Cozens, Williams, Pullins etc. of the minor league system.

What would we have to give up? That is a tough call, but we have a pretty deep farm system to deal from. We have some young major league players that could interest them. Wondering if anyone else has found someone who would make some sense.

I'm wondering the same thing myself. A month or so ago, I suggested Williams, Knapp and Stassi for him and others said that's too much for a salary dump. How about just Knapp (and perhaps Stassi) for McCutcheon? Is that too little to entice the Pirates in a straight-up, contractually lock stock and barrel salary dump? Could they get more for him a straight up salary dump? I see Knapp as a genuine prospect but an expendable one, squeezed between Rupp and Alfaro. What is the chance that both Rupp and Alfaro head south on us? Hence, dealing Knapp might be a good risk.

I would think that the Pirates might want Pitching as part of the deal. Knapp is probably a good starting point. Maybe they want one of our secondary outfielders like Alther, Asche or Goedel plus one other piece. Lively, Pivetta, Morgan, Asher, Richy, Viza type. Really not sure what the Pirates needs are. I really don't have an idea of what type of package the Pirates would want. I don't think the Phillies would include any of their top 10 prospects in the deal (Although some look at Knapp as one). Other than that I think the Phillies could come up with a package that would work for both teams. They Phillies really have a deep farm system right now.

[Austinfan]

I think their primary focus in 2017 will be deepening the talent pool throughout the organization, right now it's top heavy, Lehigh will have a tremendous team, Reading will be decent, Lakewood maybe, Clearwater?. The problem at the top is you quickly hit 40 man roster decisions, building up depth throughout the organization allows you to time promotions.

The first wave hits the beach in 2017-18, the second wave (Ortiz, Moniak, et al) 2020-21. I think they want a steady stream over big waves going forward.

[saycheese]

I think their primary focus in 2017 will be deepening the talent pool throughout the organization, right now it's top heavy, Lehigh will have a tremendous team, Reading will be decent, Lakewood maybe, Clearwater?. The problem at the top is you quickly hit 40 man roster decisions, building up depth throughout the organization allows you to time promotions.

The first wave hits the beach in 2017-18, the second wave (Ortiz, Moniak, et al) 2020-21. I think they want a steady stream over big waves going forward.

Absolutely agree with this. Being top heavy also though plays into short term help at the major league level. Trading an Andrew Knapp along with one or two of those 2nd and third tier arms to fill a spot in the everyday lineup neither hurts the minor league teams or the waves hitting the beach as you would say. As long as that player is at a position where they are not blocking anyone in the next year or two. I just don't want to see a Parades or Bourjos type brought in. No reason why we can't get a legit say corner outfielder and still develop the Williams, Cozens etc of the world.

I think the most fascinating part of this off-season will be seeing if they keep the likes of Herrera and Rupp. They could sell high on both, especially with the prospects pushing them from behind (if Quinn can stay healthy or Alther in center or Williams, or etc. etc. etc. Alfaro and Knapp at catcher). Or they could keep both and continue to build around them.

[Philsmania]

Thinking a little out of the box when Mackanin talks about upgrading the offense. Knowing Klentak will not do anything that hurts the future too much I started to wonder who the Phillies could get. Free Agency is pretty baron. Started looking at some rosters for guys who were in that 29-32 age range that were making decent money that clubs might want to trade off to lower their salary commitment. Not too many of those either but one name that struck me was Andrew McCutchen (hard to believe he is going to be 30 already). He has had a down year by his standards. Even with that his OPS of .766 wasn't terrible, he did hit 24 home runs and rive in 79. His center field defense is not very good at this point in his career. He probably should be playing left field. The Pirates typically trade guys like McCutchen rather than let their contracts run out. He is signed through next year with a team option for 2018. Which fits perfectly for the Phillies, he also is making a shade over 14 mill which really is not an issue for the Phillies at this point. That would give the Phillies more time to groom the Dylan Cozens, Williams, Pullins etc. of the minor league system.

What would we have to give up? That is a tough call, but we have a pretty deep farm system to deal from. We have some young major league players that could interest them. Wondering if anyone else has found someone who would make some sense.

I'm wondering the same thing myself. A month or so ago, I suggested Williams, Knapp and Stassi for him and others said that's too much for a salary dump. How about just Knapp (and perhaps Stassi) for McCutcheon? Is that too little to entice the Pirates in a straight-up, contractually lock stock and barrel salary dump? Could they get more for him a straight up salary dump? I see Knapp as a genuine prospect but an expendable one, squeezed between Rupp and Alfaro. What is the chance that both Rupp and Alfaro head south on us? Hence, dealing Knapp might be a good risk.

I would think that the Pirates might want Pitching as part of the deal. Knapp is probably a good starting point. Maybe they want one of our secondary outfielders like Alther, Asche or Goedel plus one other piece. Lively, Pivetta, Morgan, Asher, Richy, Viza type. Really not sure what the Pirates needs are. I really don't have an idea of what type of package the Pirates would want. I don't think the Phillies would include any of their top 10 prospects in the deal (Although some look at Knapp as one). Other than that I think the Phillies could come up with a package that would work for both teams. They Phillies really have a deep farm system right now.

I could see Ray Searage making Asher or Morgan his next Burnett or Happ. Hence, I shudder at the thought of sending either of them to Pittsburgh. If we send them a pitcher, I would like the Pirates to send another pitcher, a low minors guy back.

[bigegypt0417]

I think their primary focus in 2017 will be deepening the talent pool throughout the organization, right now it's top heavy, Lehigh will have a tremendous team, Reading will be decent, Lakewood maybe, Clearwater?. The problem at the top is you quickly hit 40 man roster decisions, building up depth throughout the organization allows you to time promotions.

The first wave hits the beach in 2017-18, the second wave (Ortiz, Moniak, et al) 2020-21. I think they want a steady stream over big waves going forward.

I think the goal should be to make your organization strong regardless of level. I wouldn't say our major league team is filled with talent and at some point that needs to be the focus. Good organizations work on all of it at the same time.