Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[Austinfan]

The best way not to contend is to try to contend.

That is, forcing things by truncating the rebuild by trading young assets and signing big free agents is how a lot of teams remain mediocre indefinitely - they get an instant boost and maybe get over .500, then find themselves with an aging team, little salary cap room and a depleted talent pipeline. Oh, we've been there and done that?

Phillies are now in talent consolidation mode, that is, they've rebuild the farm system, they've accumulated quantity, now they have to develop it, and accumulate ML caliber quality. Until you hit "critical mass," major signings and trades are counterproductive, because they may preclude future options (especially now that there's a "hard" salary cap due to much higher penalties for overspending).

It's frustrating, but I'd much rather they do it the right way and build a team that can contend indefinitely than a one or two year "flash in the pan."

Klentak made it pretty plain that he has the green light to spend, and I think the $40M or so they've spent already (cutting Harrison, Hellickson QO, Benoit, Kendrick, etc) suggests it's not budget constraints but strategy that precludes a big FA signing this year.

[julio]

But incremental spending wouldn't hurt in order to keep the fanbase interested.

I'd be fine with this - spending a few million, short-term, on an outfield bat with some power, for instance - somebody who could be traded, perhaps, if Altherr, Quinn, Williams or Cozens forces the issue, and who would not be in the road in a year or so when one or more of these guys will likely be ready.

But that's not the kind of "big market" spending Gelb's article was about. Fowler, Desmond (Trumbo, Encarnacion, Bautista)? Not what we need right now.

[donaldorc]

The best way not to contend is to try to contend.

Profound!

It's frustrating, but I'd much rather they do it the right way and build a team that can contend indefinitely than a one or two year "flash in the pan."

this I can fully agree with. Although, 1993 was a very pleasant surprise.

[julio]

Corey Seidman piece on the recent non-roster acquisitions:

Phillies sign OF Daniel Nava, LHP Sean Burnett to m...

[schillingfan]

Players pressing is a red flag, the ability to adjust is a skill.

Michael Jack Schmidt. IOW I have no idea how to measure "pressing" as opposed to slower learning curve or small sample size. And yes, the very best will take the emotional/psychological side of the game and not lose focus and ice water running through their veins. I don't think you can look at a minor leaguer moving up a level or a player jumping to the majors and say there is a "pressing" red flag. If the player has the physical skills, I'd suspect the emotional side will catch up, and that's the job of the coaches, particularly in the minor leagues. Players do not all fit into one mold.

[zambonir]

It's not like the Phillies haven't been clear about their timetable. Gillick may have mentioned 2018 early on but he'd revised that by the time MacPhail got hired. I thought Gelb did a pretty good job using the Cubs example at least.

And I certainly don't want to be the 2009 Yankees or the 2013 Red Sox (or the 2011 Phillies).

Doesn't mean they'll stink in 2018, or that they have to stink this year if most things (health, performance of the infield bats) go well. They could go .500 this year and flirt with the wild card next year. The question of budget aside, I do think that when they say the goal is to "contend" in 2019 they mean actually make the playoffs. Doesn't mean it will happen, but that's the goal. Next year the goal will be a winning record.

This year, not so much, though Klentak is doing more than I expected, and the new CBA means there's no reason to tank. If he signs another corner OF without trading Hernandez, that, Kendrick and Hellickson (instead of the lesser vet they probably would have signed) are upgrades. The pen, you never know, but he's made moves, and I was not in the camp who wanted a big name closer.

We (as fans) are still paying for 2014's mistakes. Because they were so slow to act (in 2015 as well, with Amaro), this is really the first full season of the Middleton/MacPhail/Klentak administration top to bottom. And let's face it, the 2018/2019 manager probably isn't in charge either.

[Austinfan]

I think the other issue which may be driving decisions is that the farm system rebuild was top heavy due to trades, that is, the drafting/LA strategy which they've followed the last two years, taking advantage of money and position, as well as the emphasis on baseball skill v tools that changed since the old regime, is populating the lower minors, but is two years from filling out Reading and Lehigh rosters.

So there's a bit of a gap say between Quinn and Cozens and Moniak, Ortiz and Randolph - and I think they not only want to build up the ML roster, but want depth throughout the system.

A good example is trading Rupp/Hernandez, etc. They would probably like depth down the system before trading a major league starter and depending on one prospect - if that prospect gets hurt or flops, you don't want to wait three years before the next prospect is read and have to hit the FA market or make a trade without leverage.

It's easier to package excess talent than to fill holes. Which is why I see next offseason when Klentak will start the real action, not only looking at FAs and ML trades, but also older prospects for younger prospects to fill the "hole in the donut."

[zambonir]

Phils agree to Minors terms with Burnett, Nava

I think this also belong in the main (rather than minor league) thread. I would agree with Julio that it appears Florimon will compete for the role of next Andres Blanco. I guess we can't assume Blanco's gone until he actually is (plus you could make the case for him as a bench bat just as much as a bench glove, if you think he can still do it).

But if Galvis and Hernandez both stick around and Crawford comes on fast, one or the other (or both!) of them take that middle IF back-up role.

[donaldorc]

Man, I recall the grand slam that Nava hit for Boston against the Phillies in his first major league at bat. It was on national TV, and one of the few games I could watch on TV that year, and it really teed me off. Hope he can do some spectacular things for the Phillies.

[LoneStarPhan]

Nava looks to be a strong cacdidate for a bench job. He also can play first base and is a switch hitter.

[zambonir]

Spectacular is a lot to ask. He has a decent chance to make the team right now, like Jeff Francoeur and last year's marginal 5th OFs before him. Probably much less of a chance if they add a 4th OF on a guaranteed contract (though that would also require a roster move). I think I read that his opt-out date isn't until June. I'd expect something between Will Venable (who couldn't even hit in AAA anymore, Nava did) and Bourjos.

[bkeich]

Nava looks to be a strong cacdidate for a bench job. He also can play first base and is a switch hitter.

And if he does that would sadly be another sign that we are making no attempt to either improve the MLB team or acquire assets that can be traded for prospects.

[julio]

FYI - news, but only just:

Todd Zolecki (ToddZolecki)

[Austinfan]

Oh stop being so grouchy.
Nava is a cheap spring training depth body that doesn't preclude other moves.
They'll bring a dozen guys like this to ST.
Nothing to get excited about one way or another.

They're not going to sign a player with a QO, so it's just a matter of waiting until the big money deals are signed and bottom fishing from the ones left standing by the wall at the big free agent dance.

[bkeich]

My comment was to LoneStar presuming "If he makes the team", well, if he makes the team it is a failure to acquire a useful player and a wasted roster spot. If he is indeed a
"cheap spring training depth" as you presume then there is nothing to talk about with him assuming he ends up as an injury reserve in the minors.

Basically this is the same argument about Bourjos last year, but actually Bourjos was a better chance to have value.

No where did a mention a QO.

[zambonir]

Bourjos was a decent acquisition. He contributed what he was supposed to (defense, baserunning) and might have been flipped if he hadn't gotten hurt. Also, if Altherr hadn't gotten hurt (and had performed) Bourjos would have been easier to take, but given how many other bad players were going out there, along with Goedell being locked onto the roster, he was the #2 outfielder for a while.

Nava is probably not a bad option as a bench player. When the Phillies were good they still carried the likes of So Taguchi, Bruntlett and Michael Martinez, to say nothing of Francisco, Mayberry and Matt Stairs (in 2009). These are not necessarily "wasted roster spots," it's just that the when the first eight guys aren't producing at a high level it's easier to find the next five wanting.

[andyb]

The real question is whether we invest in a corner outfielder that can actually hit, like a Michael Saunders. They obviously should not go after any QO free agents, but they have plenty of money to spend if they want to improve their offense and corner OF offense is a team weakness and really a future question mark.

Nava is merely a placeholder. Frankly a guy like Perkins might be better than him and if it comes down to it I would hope they give the kid a chance to win a roster spot. I just see no reason to not spend a little money on a player like Saunders that could help now and is young enough to either trade or even sign for a longer term in the future. Why is a guy like Saunders much different than a guy like Hellickson? He would fill a position of need and they only need to spend money to do that. And if it takes a 2-3 year deal they can easily trade him or eat the back end of the contract if it comes to that. I just have no interest in trotting out corner OFs that don't hit like corner OFs should. This includes guys like Nava and Bourjos. We need some power as a team and ideally from a left-handed bat (since Joseph and Franco are right handed).

[bkeich]

But what value does Nava have? He won't help us win when we are "competing" and he won't bring prospects to help that future. So (if he were to make the team) he would simply be a waste of a roster spot. If we just put out a team of players that cannot do one of those two things again we are failing to use assets (money) to improve the rebuilding, which is what happened last year. When the trade deadline came we were a "selling" team with nothing to sell. That is a wasted opportunity.

This discussion is using Nava as an example, my guess is that he probably won't make the team and may get stashed in AAA as a reserve. It doesnt really matter what name you use, the logic to me is the same for every player.

All 25 spots should either be players that might help us win in the future OR players that are probable to be good enough to bring back prospects in 2017. Having guys like Parades around wastes the possibility.

A winning team will always have guys at the bottom of the roster to fill out a need, like Taguchi, Bruntlett and Martinez were. They werent great players but they were on the team to provide depth, without which we could have lost games when they were needed. For a rebuilding team the logic should be different because the team shouldnt care if those players not being there cause a problem.

[tom81]

The real question is whether we invest in a corner outfielder that can actually hit, like a Michael Saunders. They obviously should not go after any QO free agents, but they have plenty of money to spend if they want to improve their offense and corner OF offense is a team weakness and really a future question mark.

I think they pick up another OF but I'm guessing it will come via the trade route and most likely from someone dumping a vet on the last year of his contract. Someone like Bruce, Either or Martinez. I'd really like to see them trade Kendrick for Martinez and pick up Kendrick's salary.

[andyb]

You are not going to get Martinez for a lesser salary dump. He will require prospects for a 1-year deal. A Saunders only requires money. Now Bruce was mediocre enough so the price might be minimal, but I am just not sure he gets you much in the trade market beyond what you give up to get him in the first place.