Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

Austinfan 2016-12-09 20:05:26 UTC #679

Hernandez had a 4.4 WAR (FG) season last year.
If that's not good enough, what the heck is?
This is a guy who hit .309 in AAA at age 23, got blocked from starting the next season, had a decent rookie season in 2015 and showed substantial improvement last year.

He's probably not as good defensively as he showed last year, but that doesn't mean he'll regress all the way to "average" either, and his hitting could improve further. His base running may also improve with experience.

I have no problem with a 3-4 WAR 2B who turns 27 in May, I'd say we'd be in great shape if we had guys performing like that at six other starting positions.

Kingery really fell off when he went to Reading, that's a red flag to me, a 22 year old top prospect shouldn't struggle that much, both his BB% (3.0) and K% (21.7) collapsed at Reading to unacceptable levels for a "singles" hitter. SSS and it may just be "adjustment lag," but still, a black mark.

Valentin's lowest BB% was 8.2% in 2014, last year he was 9.8% in both AA and AAA ball. He's also consistently hit with more power than Kingery.

If you look at the Fansgraph spring 2016 current and potential ranking of tools, Kingery's only edge is speed, Valentin has the edge on arm strength, which allows him to function as a utility infielder, and that makes him more valuable than Kingery (who is a 2B only prospect).

This is why this season is key for both prospects, Valentin is auditioning for a utility IF spot, Kingery to stay in the organization (if Hernandez has another good season, Kingery will be traded or left unprotected, depending on how well he plays, since he has little value off the bench).

andyb 2016-12-09 20:17:19 UTC #680

Again you are cherrypicking. First of all the WAR is only 3.3 on baseball reference. Second, his defense contributes to that and this is the only time in his professional career he has had positive defensive stats. Take that away and he is more of a 2.0 to 2.5 WAR player. Add in the 363 BABIP and his offense might also not be quite as sustainable.

This is why you need to use all the information about a player and not try to cherry-pick certain things. Like Kingery's late season Reading performance. Players often press in small sample sizes after promotion. That is a tiny thing in his record, not a major red flag.

There is a reason every prospect ranking has Kingery higher (even the one you posted on). Kingery is a better athlete (and others have translated this into better defensive projections also). As I repeat, there is not a world of difference between the two of them. But everyone who ranks them seems to put Kingery higher. And the Phillies have talked about Valentin as a potential utility infielder. Put 2 and 2 together and they see Kingery as more likely to be their regular 2B in the future (if Hernandez does not just hold the job).

Austinfan 2016-12-09 20:47:54 UTC #681

Players pressing is a red flag, the ability to adjust is a skill. Kingery didn't just slip, he slipped badly in terms of both plate discipline and contact in AA ball at age 22. Doesn't mean he's doomed, but it is a data point. Compare to Valentin's similar SSS in AAA ball. One player adjusted better after a promotion.

Kingery was ranked higher last year primarily because Valentin had missed almost a full season, and the difference between the two wasn't that large, see where they get ranked this spring. Kingery is faster, Valentin has a better arm, so as far as fielding, there's no significant skill difference, except that Kingery's lack of arm strength limits him to 2B. They talk about Valentin as a potenital utility IF because neither player is going to push out Hernandez if he continues his current level of play, but Valentin can contribute off the bench.

Hernandez, whether he's 3.3 or 4.4 WAR, was an above average (about 2.0 WAR) ML starter last year, not potential, actual performance. His BABIP isn't that high given his skill set, LH (most ABs) with speed who puts the ball on the ground and hits line drives. He turns 27 in May, isn't he exactly what you hope at best to get from a top prospect?

It's what you do on the field, not the scouting report, that matters in the end. Pullin wasn't even a prospect last spring, if he builds on last season he might be in Philly in July as the 4th OF with a shot to win a starting spot. That's the fun of watching prospects, seeing which ones rise, fall and surprise.

andyb 2016-12-09 20:56:49 UTC #682

I have never seen any credible ranking where Kingery was not higher than Valentin. The gap will likely be larger this offseason when the new lists come out. We only have one so far (Baseball Prospectus). They had Kingery listed as one of 4 names competing for the #10 spot. No mention of Valentin. Baseball America scheduled for Monday.

I have never said there was a huge difference. But I have consistently said Kingery was a little better and that is the general consensus of other prospect rankings. Tools matter and Kingery is seen as having better tools at this point.

andyb 2016-12-09 22:09:35 UTC #683

And low and behold Fangraphs weighs in a little on Cesar Hernandez this year, They are kind of where I am in not completely believing the defense and needing a larger sample to determine if the offense (mainly better patience) is real.

I am definitely not sold on Kingery being better than Hernandez in the long run. But one could argue also that when Crawford comes up we have 2 starting 2B (adding Galvis) that may be average at best and within a year and a half we probably have 2 minor leaguers in Kingery and Valentin that will be in the mix and might end up nearly as good.

So trading Hernandez or Galvis if you think their value might be peaking is not the worst thing to do with Crawford on the horizon. Remember in a trade we get something in return. That something could easily fill a current major league hole like a young corner OF. So thinking we can trade Galvis or Hernandez now is not really punting on the future at all in the right trade.

julio 2016-12-09 22:15:13 UTC #684

Klentak has started collecting the odd pieces:

andyb 2016-12-09 22:43:35 UTC #685

The left-handed relievers on the 40-man roster now are not an awe-inspiring bunch: Rollins, Morgan, and Joely Rodriguez. We have to figure that we are guaranteed one on the final roster and the team would prefer at least 2. That could be Rollins (short) and Morgan (long), but I am pretty sure I would also bring 5 other options into spring training and maybe even sign someone to a guaranteed deal. We have a quality LOOGY shortage at the moment.

zambonir 2016-12-09 22:54:56 UTC #686

They really didn't prioritize lefty relief pitching (or lefty pitching period) last year. But I think Rodriguez is the #1 option. Rollins or a minor leaguer #2. Morgan, it might be nice to just find a role for him besides amorphous long man (didn't work great for Obertholtzer last year) or let him keep starting in AAA (or did he burn his last option?).

I wonder if they are seriously considering bringing Blanco back. If not they will just bring another Blanco-type to spring training on a minor league deal. I guess it partly depends on Blanco's prospects as a free agent. Might also depend if they are still talking about trading Hernandez.

Austinfan 2016-12-09 23:05:20 UTC #687

Burnett is a long-shot, bad elbow injury and has hardly pitched for three years.
Sinker/slider pitcher who had developed an effective changeup before he went down for the count.
One of these "look at them in camp" pitchers.

tom81 2016-12-09 23:57:28 UTC #688

It's nice to hear that the Phillies are exploring new developments.

tom81 2016-12-10 03:27:52 UTC #689

We've just added that extra bat. Daniel Nava???

julio 2016-12-10 04:35:49 UTC #690

Nava's Baseball Reference page:

Austinfan 2016-12-10 05:02:45 UTC #691

I dunno. The 2012-2014 would be a good reserve, the 2015-16 is pretty much MIA.
I think he's minor league depth who'll have to prove himself healthy and still capable of contributing to get a call up.

andyb 2016-12-10 05:31:29 UTC #692

Nava is a fringe guy who was OK in his age 27-29 peak but is now over the hill. Would prefer they go back and get Asche if that is at all possible still. We still need a real corner OF bat, preferably one left handed (like Saunders).

mdougherty12 2016-12-10 06:21:46 UTC #693

Nava certainly had an interesting path to MLB:

LoneStarPhan 2016-12-10 07:09:18 UTC #694

There are always several signings to minor league contracts and invitations to spring training. This year, the Phillies have a need to find a couple bench players to start the season unless several of the prospects make the team coming out of spring training.

I expect a few more of these signings but we realize that most will not make the roster and some will be cut lose before the season. Others may fill in the AAA and AA rosters.

BtownFan 2016-12-10 16:50:12 UTC #695

If Nava get close to returning to form and his defense is as good as they say (with some 1B too!), he could be a great pick-up, But he lacks the pop that the Phils really could use, as they have Altherr and Quinn as options for roaming the outfield. Really hoping Altherr lights up this year...

donaldorc 2016-12-10 17:33:31 UTC #696

Sorry, but I'd like to contend before 2019.

julio 2016-12-10 17:52:28 UTC #697

I'd like lots of things I do not have, and cannot have; but one has to be realistic.

IMHO, believing that throwing money at free agents could somehow make the Phillies into instant contenders is simply not realistic. Given the choice between a front office that spends money in pursuit of unrealistic goals, and a front office that pursues a realistic plan...well, I know what I prefer.

Big spending on free agents can be part of a rebuilding strategy - but it's the last part. It's a tool for adding some final pieces; you have to build the foundation first, and you can't build the foundation with players who are pushing (or past) 30 years old.

Gelb's article was fairly crappy, IMHO, in that he didn't effectively rebut those who have unrealistic (dare I say "magical") beliefs that having lots of money means everything the franchise needs can just be purchased now. Just MHO, but if you don't disabuse people of such beliefs, you're just encouraging them.

donaldorc 2016-12-10 17:55:31 UTC #698

julio:

'd like lots of things I do not have, and cannot have; but one has to be realistic.

IMHO, believing that throwing money at free agents could somehow make the Phillies into instant contenders is simply not realistic. Given the choice between a front office that spends money in pursuit of unrealistic goals, and a front office that pursues a realistic plan...well, I know what I prefer.

Big spending on free agents can be part of a rebuilding strategy - but it's the last part. It's a tool for adding some final pieces; you have to build the foundation first, and you can't build the foundation with players who are pushing (or past) 30 years old.

Gelb's article was fairly crappy, IMHO, in that he didn't effectively rebut those who have unrealistic (dare I say "magical") beliefs that having lots of money means everything the franchise needs can just be purchased now. Just MHO, but if you don't disabuse people of such beliefs, you're just encouraging them.

I really agree with you. But incremental spending wouldn't hurt in order to keep the fanbase interested. 2019 just seems like such a long time away.