Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

julio 2016-11-28 21:52:55 UTC #522

7 posts were split to a new topic: Winter 2016-17 Trade Speculation and Wish List

donaldorc 2016-11-28 11:02:41 UTC #526

Here are some rumors for the hot stove league from Fox. Anyone interested? Any likely?

julio 2016-11-29 19:42:29 UTC #528

4 posts were merged into an existing topic: Franzke & LA - Bill Campbell Award Winners

zambonir 2016-11-29 00:24:32 UTC #534

The hot stove talk is certainly getting interesting, though (as usual) a lot of it is probably flimsy and agent-driven. A move like acquiring Brian Dozier would certainly imply a more aggressive approach to 2017 & 2018 (but I'll believe it when I see it, and also wonder if his 2016 is sustainable. Not that he was bad before, but the player he was in 2014-2015 wouldn't be nearly as dramatic an addition, especially at 30 and 31.)

BostonRoss 2016-11-29 17:13:03 UTC #535

I'd be interested in Dozier. He might not be as good as he was in 2016, but he is an average 4+ WAR player for his career, and he's reasonably priced. And if he does manage to kep up his 2016 production, we'd have an offensive star.

The problem might be that he's at his peak value, and so we would probably have to buy high.

zambonir 2016-11-29 18:53:44 UTC #536

Yeah I just don't know why you'd pay the trade price for a player who is a 31 year-old free agent after two seasons, unless the Twins are willing to take a lot of single A material. I guess the presumption is he wouldn't be expensive because he is a salary dump but he's not that expensive, multiple teams can definitely shop at that market. The That Ball's Outta Here article about this fantasized that Hernandez and Tocci could get it done - doubtful. And that the Phillies could flip him before next season which I suppose is technically true.

(I guess this belongs in the Winter 2017 thread now?)

julio 2016-11-30 02:44:44 UTC #537

Per Jayson Stark, A.J. Ellis may be in play:

BostonRoss 2016-11-30 03:27:01 UTC #538

It depends on what the trade price is. There are many combinations of prospects I'd consider giving up for two years of a 4-6 WAR player, with the possibility of getting first crack at re-signing him if he continues to rake, or to flip him for some other area of need if the Phils aren't contending by 2018.

The Phillies haven't had even a 5 WAR offensive player since 2011. The last time a Phillies hitter exceeded Dozier's 2016 WAR was Chase Utley in 2009. Dozier may not be able to keep it up, but he might. It seems worthwhile to gamble a little to get a player of that caliber.

bkeich 2016-11-30 04:16:30 UTC #539

So our plan is to acquire every available 2B to drive up the price on Hernandez? The Hunt Brothers tried this with silver.

Well, it is an interesting idea. I guess at least it is a sign that the full 40 man doesnt mean that the Phils management are done (nothing done of course but at least they might be trying to improve the ML team, which as it is awful).

SussexJay 2016-11-30 14:21:02 UTC #540

How about C. Hernandez and Ben Lively for Dozier? Would give Twins a rotation piece who is blocked in Philly and free up a 40-Man spot for Ellis or Blanco.
J

Soloman_grundy 2016-11-30 15:21:58 UTC #541

If that's the case I'd expect them to deal Rupp. Bring up Knapp and let him play 3-4 times a week with a supplement of Ellis 2-3 times. Knapp learns on the job while being an apprentice to Ellis. Young pitchers get to work with Ellis a couple times a month. Alfaro gets a full season at AAA.

Lawman 2016-11-30 15:25:44 UTC #542

This may make sense. I'm not sure you need Ellis and Rupp and Knapp....unless you really don't feel Knapp is ready and you want to start out with Rupp and Ellis and trade one of them mid-season. On the other hand, selling on Rupp now is selling high, If you wait, his value probably diminishes.

donaldorc 2016-11-30 15:26:56 UTC #543

On the other hand, it might increase. (Okay, I see the glass as half full).

Lawman 2016-11-30 16:17:46 UTC #544

True.

julio 2016-11-30 18:24:03 UTC #545

Zach Eflin, working his way back from surgery on his knees:

It will be interesting to see how he performs, with his chronic knee problems corrected; based on what was reported, today may have been the first time he pitched without pain in a long time - years.

donaldorc 2016-11-30 18:37:54 UTC #546

Here's hoping for a great recovery. I really enjoyed his starts last year, thought he had a lot of potential.

Philsmania 2016-11-30 19:15:56 UTC #547

Also during the upgrade shutdown, it was revealed that the young woman who is the colorful peanuts vendor at CBP is also a prominent figure in the alt right white supremacist movement. Hopefully, she won't be a Phillies vendor in 2017.

julio 2016-11-30 19:38:15 UTC #548

More former front-office talent in the organization:

zambonir 2016-11-30 19:46:30 UTC #549

If that's the case I'd expect them to deal Rupp. Bring up Knapp and let him play 3-4 times a week with a supplement of Ellis 2-3 times. Knapp learns on the job while being an apprentice to Ellis. Young pitchers get to work with Ellis a couple times a month. Alfaro gets a full season at AAA.

We already know they don't think Knapp is ready and want to pair Rupp with a veteran back-up. The problem is Knapp is on the 40 and wouldn't get to play a lot in AAA. But if they don't like Knapp as Rupp's back-up they probably don't like him more as the almost-starter (and Ellis shouldn't catch 80-90 games either).

I imagine there is still a good chance Knapp is traded, but they can also find the 40 space eventually. Rupp could be traded in July or next off-season. I don't think they will trade Rupp unless they are ready to have Alfaro in the majors (though you could also make the case to just do that now).

bigegypt0417 2016-11-30 19:59:54 UTC #550

Seems Klentak is building some good bench strength...