Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

[andyb]

I can't see Cespedes or Desmond (Kendricks is Desmond lite).

Trumbo turns 31 and is a RH power bat, but the 47 HRs are probably a fluke, weird thing is he hits RH pitching much better than LH in 2016, it seems to be a one year anomaly. Not sure I'd give 4 years, but I'd think about 3. He's a defensive liability so he should probably stay in the AL.

Reddick turns 30, is LH, fell off substantially the second half, I'd want to know why, dings?
Sanders turns 30, is LH, fell off substantially the second half, but BABIP went from .377 to .221, was that luck or decline in bat speed or both?
Rasmus is 30, LH, poor season driven by falloff in BABIP (.305 to .257) and ISO (.236 to .149), he's had an erratic career, so buy low might make sense.

Do you really think a 150 point decline in BABIP in the middle of the season for a 29-year-old is decline in bat speed? A second half decline like that is luck, pure and simple. Most likely the same with Reddick. I would stay far away from Trumbo. He is more of a DH than anything else and the hot season will make him over-priced. There is definitely more potential reward shopping among the guys who had 2nd half declines but are still young enough where that is likely chance.

And the player we acquired is named Howie Kendrick. No S.

[olgrandad]

I can't see Cespedes or Desmond (Kendricks is Desmond lite).

Trumbo turns 31 and is a RH power bat, but the 47 HRs are probably a fluke, weird thing is he hits RH pitching much better than LH in 2016, it seems to be a one year anomaly. Not sure I'd give 4 years, but I'd think about 3. He's a defensive liability so he should probably stay in the AL.

Reddick turns 30, is LH, fell off substantially the second half, I'd want to know why, dings?
Sanders turns 30, is LH, fell off substantially the second half, but BABIP went from .377 to .221, was that luck or decline in bat speed or both?
Rasmus is 30, LH, poor season driven by falloff in BABIP (.305 to .257) and ISO (.236 to .149), he's had an erratic career, so buy low might make sense.

Yes, I would gamble on Rasmus.

[zambonir]

So how does the team reconcile its 40-man crunch with the possibility of adding more major league players in December? Or rather, adding major league free agents.

I think you've answered your question. Look for the club to add players by trade, rather than free agency. You strengthen the 40-man roster by concentrating its talent, not just by adding more bodies. You protect as much talent as you can in the Rule 5 draft - but some of that talent can subsequently be "concentrated" by trading.

Agreed. I don't think the parallel discussion about adding a FA OF is realistic, unless Hernandez is traded. Also, I still don't think they'll make a three-year commitment to anyone (but certainly not anyone who requires a comp pick, especially now that they don't have their own).

[andyb]

The Phils just wagered $17.2 million on Hellickson's QO, in hopes of landing a 2017 draft pick in the mid-20s. They don't come away with nothing because Hellickson accepted the QO - but they're out the difference between his actual value and his salary, whatever that is.

Last year Hellickson was a 3 WAR player, so worth more than $24 million. Saying they are losing the difference between $17 million and his performance is a little harsh. It is probably at least 50-50 that he is worth the new contract.

[julio]

The Phils just wagered $17.2 million on Hellickson's QO, in hopes of landing a 2017 draft pick in the mid-20s. They don't come away with nothing because Hellickson accepted the QO - but they're out the difference between his actual value and his salary, whatever that is.

Last year Hellickson was a 3 WAR player, so worth more than $24 million. Saying they are losing the difference between $17 million and his performance is a little harsh. It is probably at least 50-50 that he is worth the new contract.

Fair enough. If that's the case, he should be eminently tradable - assuming that major-league GMs assign monetary value to WAR the way we tend to.

As you know, though, my point was that this organization's current leadership is not being "cheap." They're clearly willing to spend substantial amounts of money in ways that their predecessors were not. We may want to quibble about specifics (I'm sure we will!), but there's been a sea change here in the past year-plus, and I think we need to recognize that - which means we don't make arguments about how little the franchise has spent in the past decade, or similar periods, as if that were relevant to what the current management is undertaking.

[julio]

On the Harrison release, this from Jim Salisbury:

More than half of Harrison’s salary was originally covered by insurance, but the pitcher would have had to stay on the roster in order for the Phillies to collect that money. According to a person with knowledge of the situation, the Phillies will still recover a portion of the money after negotiating a lesser payout with the insurance company before releasing Harrison. The amount of the payout is not known.

Kudoes to the front office for this approach.

[andyb]

The Phils just wagered $17.2 million on Hellickson's QO, in hopes of landing a 2017 draft pick in the mid-20s. They don't come away with nothing because Hellickson accepted the QO - but they're out the difference between his actual value and his salary, whatever that is.

Last year Hellickson was a 3 WAR player, so worth more than $24 million. Saying they are losing the difference between $17 million and his performance is a little harsh. It is probably at least 50-50 that he is worth the new contract.
Fair enough. If that's the case, he should be eminently tradable - assuming that major-league GMs assign monetary value to WAR the way we tend to.

As you know, though, my point was that this organization's current leadership is not being "cheap." They're clearly willing to spend substantial amounts of money in ways that their predecessors were not. We may want to quibble about specifics (I'm sure we will!), but there's been a sea change here in the past year-plus, and I think we need to recognize that - which means we don't make arguments about how little the franchise has spent in the past decade, or similar periods, as if that were relevant to what the current management is undertaking.

I have never really said the organization was cheap. My criticisms have been that the money is always spent on the major league roster as opposed to the minor league talent acquisition. Money in the draft is probably 10 times as efficient as free agent spending. Money in the U23 international market is maybe 5 times more efficient. An extra $10 million internationally is a pretty good bet to net us 1-2 future WAR.

The Phillies are clearly willing to spend a bit. The Harrison move is a nice touch. On Hellickson I might have preferred the comp pick but neither option is awful (a trade last year might have been better in hindsight).

The unknown is how far the Phillies can go on payroll with their current team. It does not make sense to have a $180 million roster with this team and the current box office projections. But they probably are going to be below $100 million at this rate. Including the Howard buyout. If they stay at that level I sure wish $20 million had been used to go get a Lourdes Gurriel or equivalent. The moves the Phillies have done so far have been in the right direction but are relatively small. They have much more to do.

[julio]

As you know, though, my point was that this organization's current leadership is not being "cheap." They're clearly willing to spend substantial amounts of money in ways that their predecessors were not. We may want to quibble about specifics (I'm sure we will!), but there's been a sea change here in the past year-plus, and I think we need to recognize that - which means we don't make arguments about how little the franchise has spent in the past decade, or similar periods, as if that were relevant to what the current management is undertaking.

I have never really said the organization was cheap.

"It's not all about you."

In other words, I didn't mean to imply that you, in particular, had. That argument has certainly appeared more than occasionally in this space, though!

The Harrison move is a nice touch. On Hellickson I might have preferred the comp pick but neither option is awful (a trade last year might have been better in hindsight).

I, too, would have preferred the comp pick - but it was a reasonable gamble, and the "losing" side of the wager isn't bad - just less good than the winning side would have been.

[schillingfan]

It's a strange move. I think it unlikely that someone not now on the 40-man won't make the team out of ST.

I'm trying to wrap my mind around this triple negative - "unlikely" "not now" "won't" Does this mean there will be someone on the 25 man who is not now on the 40 man?

[LoneStarPhan]

I totally agree that the Phillies did the right thing in making the QO to Hellickson. I expected that it would yield them a draft pick in the top 30, and that was my hope, but he took the offer, so now they have the veteran pitcher they probably wanted. Had he declined the offer, I think they would have come up with someone to fill that role. They likely would end up saving some money on salary, but might have gone the trade route. We just don't know.

Sure is great to have the board up and running again. I was in withdrawal as the roster was set last Friday.

[Philsmania]

Also during the upgrade downtime, MLB officially designated John Middleton as the Phillies' "control person" which I guess is MLBese for face of the organization, not that that is really news.

[julio]

Also during the upgrade downtime, MLB officially designated John Middleton as the Phillies' "control person" which I guess is MLBese for face of the organization, not that that is really news.

I don't see it as "really news," but it is a confirmation that Middleton - not Montgomery - officially speaks for the organization, to other owners; e.g., at owners' meetings. When ownership meets to vote on things (think ratifying the new CBA when it's finalized), Middleton is in that role - not Montgomery.

It's another formal step taken by the organization, and approved by MLB, that indicates we have a different leadership than we did two years ago. All to the good!

[donaldorc]

It's another formal step taken by the organization, and approved by MLB, that indicates we have a different leadership than we did two years ago. All to the good!

Indeed! All to the good! We're not your dad's Phillies.

[LoneStarPhan]

Here is one of the articles I read while the board was down on Middleton being designated as the front of the organization. It did say he is 48% owner. The limited partnership prohibits any owner gaining majority ownership.

John Middleton officially assumes control of Philli...

[Philsmania]

Here is one of the articles I read while the board was down on Middleton being designated as the front of the organization. It did say he is 48% owner. The limited partnership prohibits any owner gaining majority ownership.

John Middleton officially assumes control of Philli...

Not really news there, either, other than revealing his specific ownership percentage.

[phillychuck]

Phils traded Jimmy Cordero to the Nats for a PTBNL. Not a great return, but they were constrained by roster issues.

[LoneStarPhan]

Phils traded Jimmy Cordero to the Nats for a PTBNL. Not a great return, but they were constrained by roster issues.

Once they DFA'd him last week getting the roster set for the rule 5 draft, it was clear they feel he had slipped as a prospect. Still, many thought he was likely to be lost in the rule 5 draft.

Did Washington put him on their 40 man roster?

I'd guess the PRBNL will be settled after the rule 5 draft. They could get a player then who is not taken from the Nationals and not have to make a 40 man roster decision until this time next year. At least we don't lose Cordaro in the coming rule 5 draft.

[zambonir]

Major League Baseball's owners on Thursday officially designated John S. Middleton as control person of the Phillies, the last step in a transition of power from David Montgomery to Middleton.

Not really news there, either, other than revealing his specific ownership percentage.

What was notable was that the Phillies openly stated it. Might be the first time ever that they've done that, regardless of the percentages. I'm not sure they've even ever (officially) identified all the members of the ownership group before.

[Lawman]

Todd Zolecki (ToddZolecki)

[julio]

Todd Zolecki (ToddZolecki)

Presumably at his request/wish. He evidently cleared waivers, and if he did, he has the minor-league service time to become a minor league ("6-year") free agent.