Phillies 2016-2017 offseason Discussion

Austinfan 2016-11-15 16:05:19 UTC #481

Hellickson is what he is, a middle of the rotation starter.

fangraphs.com/blogs/did-jere ... this-year/
fangraphs.com/blogs/jeremy-h ... teresting/

He's probably maxed out unless he can develop a two seamer that tails away from LHs.

bigegypt0417 2016-11-15 16:23:59 UTC #482

We should take in to consideration that prior to his injuries he was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball...I think at his peak he was #6 in 2011.

el-pietro 2016-11-15 17:38:37 UTC #483

San Francisco Giants 2010.

bigegypt0417 2016-11-15 18:39:39 UTC #484

Matt Harrison has been released...32 men on the 40

zambonir 2016-11-15 18:47:14 UTC #485

Spending the money! I really didn't expect that one.

bkeich 2016-11-15 18:49:35 UTC #486

PC called it. I am surprised they valued a roster spot this high in value.

Slinging_Southpaw 2016-11-15 18:52:55 UTC #487

I'm impressed!!

andyb 2016-11-15 18:57:14 UTC #488

Nice move, though I am guessing the insurance money was more limited than what was speculated.

julio 2016-11-15 18:59:08 UTC #489

Hmph.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=47390&p=1677097&hilit=Harrison+release#p1677097

julio 2016-11-15 19:05:49 UTC #490

Doesn't matter. The clear indication here is that Klentak is willing to spend a large amount of money to free up a roster spot - and neither MacPhail nor Middleton/Bucks stood in the way.

We constantly look for deeper meaning in the various decisions taken by this organization. I think the meaning here is clear; this isn't Bill Giles' Phillies organization.

andyb 2016-11-15 19:08:36 UTC #491

On ESPN Jim Bowden has his annual free agent projection article. He generally lists 4-6 teams as good fits for each player though few predictions on where the player will end up. FWIW here are the players the Phillies are good fits for:

Cespedes 5/129 projection
Desmond 4/62
Trumbo 4/58
Reddick 3/39
Saunders 2/18
Rasmus 1/8
Jay 2/12

So basically he is linking the Phillies to every corner OF. Bowden is often wrong, but he knows enough scouts to say the Phillies are clearly looking here (and in the trade market). I am still big on Reddick and/or Saunders. The more I think about Saunders the more I like. There is definitely some upside there if he can stay healthy once and for all. He was an All Star this past season before falling off a cliff performance-wise the second half of the year. He will only be 30 this year and if the commitment is only 2 years then there is very little risk. His defense is only OK, though some of his mediocre stats are because Seattle played him in CF when he is really a corner OF.

bkeich 2016-11-15 19:12:06 UTC #492

PC. Julio. Same thing.

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allentown 2016-11-15 19:16:38 UTC #493

It's a strange move. I think it unlikely that someone not now on the 40-man won't make the team out of ST. When that happens, someone from 40-man will have to be outrighted. If Harrison had been kept, it's an extra roster spot in advance of Rule 5, but Harrison can just be moved to 60-man DL in ST, so a guy can be added to 40-man at that time and make the 25-man team. This likely does not save a young prospect, because easier for another team to pick them up and keep them when removed from the 40-man.

julio 2016-11-15 19:17:13 UTC #494

You flatter me.

zambonir 2016-11-15 19:22:01 UTC #495

So how does the team reconcile its 40-man crunch with the possibility of adding more major league players in December? Or rather, adding major league free agents.

(Cross-post edit: thinking same sort of thing as Allentown. But if they keep guys like Morgan - who now falls behind Thompson in the minors - and Asche now, they could trade or release or, in Asche's case, non-tender later).

julio 2016-11-15 19:24:26 UTC #496

allentown:

julio:

andyb:

Nice move, though I am guessing the insurance money was more limited than what was speculated.
Doesn't matter. The clear indication here is that Klentak is willing to spend a large amount of money to free up a roster spot - and neither MacPhail nor Middleton/Bucks stood in the way.

We constantly look for deeper meaning in the various decisions taken by this organization. I think the meaning here is clear; this isn't Bill Giles' Phillies organization.

It's a strange move. I think it unlikely that someone not now on the 40-man won't make the team out of ST. When that happens, someone from 40-man will have to be outrighted. If Harrison had been kept, it's an extra roster spot in advance of Rule 5, but Harrison can just be moved to 60-man DL in ST, so a guy can be added to 40-man at that time and make the 25-man team. This likely does not save a young prospect, because easier for another team to pick them up and keep them when removed from the 40-man.

It's probably close to 50:50 that they'll have somebody else on the 40-man roster who can be (needs to be?) moved to the 60-day DL in late March. This seems to be pretty much inevitable.

In my view, this is just a commen-sense move, albeit not a free one. Matt Harrison was never going to contribute on the field; the only reason for keeping him on the roster, for even one day, was financial - get the insurance money. If you conclude that spending salary money is simply not a critical issue for the club (they have more salary budget than they can productively spend), then it's just a question of whether a roster spot is worth the loss of insurance money.

The Phils just wagered $17.2 million on Hellickson's QO, in hopes of landing a 2017 draft pick in the mid-20s. They don't come away with nothing because Hellickson accepted the QO - but they're out the difference between his actual value and his salary, whatever that is. Giving up the insurance money on Harrison to protect a prospect is really the same kind of decision; as a draft pick has monetary value, so does a prospect - arguably more value. In both cases, you commit salary money (for which you have no other critical need) in pursuit, or protection, of future value.

Austinfan 2016-11-15 19:24:46 UTC #497

I can't see Cespedes or Desmond (Kendricks is Desmond lite).

Trumbo turns 31 and is a RH power bat, but the 47 HRs are probably a fluke, weird thing is he hits RH pitching much better than LH in 2016, it seems to be a one year anomaly. Not sure I'd give 4 years, but I'd think about 3. He's a defensive liability so he should probably stay in the AL.

Reddick turns 30, is LH, fell off substantially the second half, I'd want to know why, dings?
Sanders turns 30, is LH, fell off substantially the second half, but BABIP went from .377 to .221, was that luck or decline in bat speed or both?
Rasmus is 30, LH, poor season driven by falloff in BABIP (.305 to .257) and ISO (.236 to .149), he's had an erratic career, so buy low might make sense.

andyb 2016-11-15 19:25:51 UTC #498

I think we will still leave a spot or two open - either to see who is available in the draft or to slot in a free agent or two.

We have a 40-man roster crunch because we have depth in prospects. But we also need to remember that the prospects who are on the bubble of our protection line are very unlikely to stick on anyone's major league roster next year. Drew Anderson and Carlos Tocci are not ready for the majors. And are not talented enough for a team to want to stash them for a year.

julio 2016-11-15 19:29:12 UTC #499

I think you've answered your question. Look for the club to add players by trade, rather than free agency. You strengthen the 40-man roster by concentrating its talent, not just by adding more bodies. You protect as much talent as you can in the Rule 5 draft - but some of that talent can subsequently be "concentrated" by trading.

Austinfan 2016-11-15 19:37:46 UTC #500

If you add the $10M for Kendricks, $17M for Hellickson, $5M or so in lost insurance money for Harrison, they've already spent $32M this season (but with no overhang for next year, and possible July trade bait). This is following the strategy of short-term patches that don't block prospects or tie up salary down the road.